International Conference on the Millennium Development Goals Statistics (ICMDGS)Manila, Phillipines Octopber 1-3, 2007 Statistical Problems for Monitoring of the Millennium Development Goals in Nepal Rabi Prasad Kayastha Deputy Director Central Bureau of Statistics, Nepal
Outlines • Statistical System in Nepal • Brief review of MDGs status • Statistical Problems • Efforts towards minimizing problems
Statistical system in Nepal • Statistical Act, 1958 • Central Bureau of Statistics, nodal agency • Centralized statistical system • Data collected by other agencies shall have to be coordinated, standardized and authenticated by CBS • CBS provides technical support to other agencies.
Statistical system in NepalStatus of CBS • Under National Planning Commission Secretariat • Head office at Kathmandu • 33 field based Branch Statistical Offices covering all 75 districts • Conduct Censuses and Surveys • Estimates National Accouts.
Statistical system in NepalCensuses and Surveys conducted by CBS Periodic and regular Censuses and Surveys: • Decennial Population Censuses • Decennial Agriculture Censuses • Manufacturing Establishment Censuses • Crops and Livestock Survey • Nepal Living Standards Survey
Statistical system in NepalCensuses and Surveys conducted by CBS Ad hoc surveys • Nepal Labor Force Survey • Nepal Multiple Indicators Surveillance • Multiple Indicator cluster Survey • Hard Drug Users Survey • ........many others
Statistical system in NepalEstimates works performed by CBS • National Accounts • Price Index • Small Area Estimates (Poverty Mapping) • Population Projection Socio-economic database: • NepalInfo CD
Statistical system in NepalDecentralized practices • Growing development activities demands various statistics • CBS unable to meet growing demands • Concern ministries and departments expand activities in statistics field. • Decentralized starts in statistics
Brief review of MDGs status in Nepal • Two country progress reports - 2002 & 2005 • Reports deals with status, trends, supportive environment, challenges, and recommendations. • CBS was involved as data provider
Brief review of MDGs status in Nepal • Out of 48 globally set indicators, 10 from goal 8 are not country specific to Nepal Indicators: 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42 & 43 • Data on 4 indicators are currently not available Indicators: 18, 20, 22 & 32
Brief review of MDGs status in NepalRelated CBS publications • Nepal Info - database CD contained 34 MDGs related indicators • MDG Indicators of Nepal: 1990/91/2004/05 - a small booklet contains data on 34 indicators time series data for years 1990/91,1995/96, 2000/01, 2003/04 & 2005/06
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGs • Data gaps • Duplication in data collection • Comparability • Reliability of the estimates
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGsData Gaps • Lack of benchmark data • Very weak database • No regular flow of data • No systematic compilation of administrative data
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGsDuplication in data collection • Decentralized Practices • Concern ministries, departments, organizations collect data • Wastage resources and time
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGsComparability problem • Differences in definition of terminology used • Differences in methodology used • Differences in reference time
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGsReliability of the estimates • Methodological differences • Problem with source data used for estimates
Statistical Problems for Monitoring MDGsMajor causes of the problem • Statistics is not a priority subject • Low status of Central Bureau of Statistics • Lack of coordination • Lack of statistical plan • Lack of official statistical training institute • Lack of statistical manpower in different data producing organizations • Lack of dissemination mechanism • Lack of applicable Statistical Act in current situation
Efforts towards minimizing problems • Consolidated National Statistical Plan (CNSP) • Strengthening CBS as National Statistical Organization (NSO) • Strong National Statistical Council (as proposed in CNSP); objectives are: Develop integrated statistical system Coordinate with different data producing agencies Develop standardized statistical system
Efforts towards minimizing problems • Use of statistical techniques for estimating sub-national groups considering gender, rural-urban, etc. • Small Area Estimate (Poverty Mapping) is used to estimate poverty indicators at district and sub-district level. • Small Area Estimate: National Population Census 2001 and Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04 data
Efforts towards minimizing problems • collect indicator from different surveys that applicable to monitors MDGs • Nepal Labor Force Survey 2007/08 will collect some MDGs related indicators without hampering survey's main objectives.