Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage

1. Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage Dolf Gielen International Energy Agency IDDRI, Paris, 13 October 2005

2. Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage • Part 1: Technology status report • Part2: CCS prospects –scenario analysis • Part 3: RD&D and policy challenges

3. Part 1: Technology status report

4. Overview of worldwide CCS projects CO2 capture demonstration projects 11 CO2 capture R&D projects 35 Geologic storage projects 26 Geologic storage R&D projects 74 Ocean storage R&D projects 9

5. StatusCapture Technology • CO2 capture is a proven technology • It reduces emissions by 85-95% • But its energy efficiency can be further improved and cost must be reduced • This requires integrated power plant and CO2 capture designs • Most of these advanced designs are not yet proven on a commercial scale • Examples: new chemical absorbents, oxyfueling, hydrogen combined cycles, IGCC, USCSC, chemical looping, fuel cells

6. Capture opportunities • Fossil fueled power plants • Biomass fueled power plants • Certain industrial processes (ammonia production, blast furnaces, cement kilns) • Synfuels production • Natural gas processing

7. Capture (electricity)adds presently 2-3 UScents/kWhLong term 1-2 UScents/kWh

8. StatusStorage Technology • Aquifer storage: demonstration • CO2-EOR: demonstration • CO2-EGR: pilot • CO2-ECBM: pilot

9. Storage • 1,000-10,000 Gt aquifer storage capacity • 100-120 Gt depleted oil fields/EOR • 700-800 Gt depleted gas fields/EGR • 20 Gt ECBM • Fixation mechanisms reduce risk • Monitoring is feasible and cheap

10. CCS: Good or bad for natural gas? • Coal without CCS has no future in a CO2-constrained world, but gas may • CCS can reduce emissions for coal and gas fired power plants by 85-95% • But it increases electricity cost by 2-3 UScents/kWh • Capture is cheaper for coal than for gas (per tonne CO2) • But more tonnes to be captured for coal

11. Gas vs. coal with CCS, 50 USD/tEurope gas + CCS, USA coal + CCS Coal range USA Gas Range Europe

12. Part 2: Scenario Analysis

13. Prospects for CO2 Capture and StorageScenario Analysis • Scenarios produced using IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model • Technology rich partial equilibrium model • Global, 15-regions • Detailed representation of technologies on both the demand and supply sides (1500 new techs) • Covers the period 2000-2050

14. CCS Model Analysis • Covers CCS and competing emission mitigation strategies; • ETP BASE scenario calibrated with IEA WEO Reference Scenario; • Detailed scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to map cost-effective CCS potentials and uncertainties (35 model runs).

15. Global CO2 emissions

16. CO2 price

17. Capture at various CO2 prices

18. Share of CCS in total CO2 emissions mitigation

19. CO2 capture by process area

20. CO2 capture by technology

21. IGCC and steam cycles • Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage • Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%

22. CO2 emissions from electricity generation

23. Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on CO2 captured and stored in 2050)

24. Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on amount of CO2 captured and stored in 2050)

25. Part 3: RD&D and Policy Challenges

26. Challenges • RD&D gaps • Public awareness and acceptance • Legal and regulatory framework

27. RD&D gaps • More proof of storage needed • CO2 capture demonstration needed • 0.5-1 bln per demonstration plant • Present spending 100 MUSD/yr • A fivefold increase of RD&D needed

28. RD&D Public/Private Partnerships • US: FutureGen • EU: Hypogen • Canadian Clean Power Coalition • Australia • Germany: COORETEC • UK • Norway • France • Italy • Japan,… • Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum • IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels • IEA Implementing Agreements • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Bilateral Agreements, … National Programs International Collaboration • Alstom ExxonMobil • BP EniTecnologie SpA • ChevronTexaco • EPRI Shell International • RWE AG Total • Rio Tinto, Schlumberger,… Industry

29. Public awareness and acceptance • The deployment of CCS technologies will require broad understanding and long-term commitment by numerous constituencies • Environmental NGOs generally support RD&D work on CCS technologies • Their main concern centres on the fact that CCS is seen and presented as a solution which would allow for the continued use of fossil-fuel resources as long as they are available

30. The regulatory and legal framework • Countries should create an enabling legal and regulatory environment for national CO2 storage projects. • Contracting parties to international instruments should be proactive in clarifying the legal status of CO2 storage in the marine environment, taking into consideration their objectives to stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere.

31. Conclusions • CCS can play a key role in addressing global warming • Mainly through coal plants in coal-rich regions • But also some natural gas opportunities • Carbon incentives are needed, but also: • Proven technology • Acceptable storage

32. More Information dolf.gielen@iea.orgwww.iea.org

33. Electricity production mix

34. Electricity production by power plants fitted with CCS, by region

35. Fuel market implications:CCS impact on coal use at 50$/t CO2 CCS impact 2050: 50$/t CO2 results in 80% or 40% decline in coal use, depending on availability of CCS

36. Gas with CCS vs. gas w/o CCS

37. Gas w/o CCS vs. coal with CCS Coal range Gas Range