Decoding Carbon Capture and Storage for a Sustainable Future

1. Carbon, Capture And Storage

2. Capture and Storage • Not quite this simple:

3. Carbon Storage What Can actually be deployed?

5. Stabilization Concept • We can’t correct the past but maybe we can target some level at which CO2 reaches a constant value • Pre-industrialized value: 280 ppm • Currently Value: 388 ppm • Highest in Last 450,000 years: 310 ppm • 2 degrees C increase: 450 ppm

6. Stabilization Continued • Stabilizing atmospheric concentration is more physically important than limiting annual emission levels • Allows one to plan for the rest of the century  a ton you put in now, means a ton you can’t put in later • Shared planetary greenhouse gas emissions budget • As emission space dwindles, emission permit prices should rise

7. But • Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas  Methane is becoming important • Current CO2 trajectory reaches 720 ppm by 2100 • Stabilizing at 550 ppm (by 2100) requires reducing coal usage by about a factor of 3 relative to current trend  CHINA CHINA CHINA

8. Options for Global Energy System • Carbon Dioxide capture and storage (CSS) may play a pivotal role if we plan to implement it. This may allow CHINA CHINA CHINA to continue what its doing

9. CSS potential • Plenty of theoretical storage capacity but this is not evenly distributed around the world • If no access to natural storage reservoir then this might compel countries to build different infrastructure • Baseload coal fired power plants and coal-to-liquids facilities are the largest potential market for CSS

10. Geological Options for CSS • Depleted oil and gas reservoirs • Deep saline formations • Deep “unmineable” coal seams • Deep saline filled basalt formations • Basic Mechanism is Direct injection • Ocean Sequestration

11. World Wide Capacity 11,000 Gigatons • But unevenly distributed relative to load centers (China, Japan, Korea) • Canada, US and Australia are good

12. Required CSS Scale is Massive • There are currently 8100 individual point source CO2 emitters – most of these are power plants

13. Emission Contributors • Coal is a good target

14. CCS Potential • 450 ppm stabilization requires 2200 GT of storage or roughly 1/5 of the world’s potential  this is enormous! • Regional Ratios of Production to local storage show immense variation

16. An Economic Chain • Natural Gas Fired electricity produces about 1 lbs of Carbon Dioxide per KWH generated • Assume 5 cents per KWH for competitive price to consumer • 1 Ton of CO2 is then 2000 KWH which is 100$ • Current injection prices are about 60 -80$ per ton. • This is a therefore difficult economic model to make work. 2015 Goal is $10 per ton; what economy of scale is there?

17. Worse Still is Down Turn IN Carbon Market

18. The Price Problem • Current price of Carbon Current price is about $19.50 per ton for carbon. Thus, as of February 2010 it essentially costs 4-5 times more to put Carbon in the ground than in the atmosphere. This is the essential financial reality!

19. Cost is not the only obstacle • Goal: Capture 100% of a large power plants emissions and store them for 50 years? • Wow • How many injector wells are needed and what is their spacing? • Can same injectors be used for 50 years? • Does the reservoir leak?

20. Conclusions • CSS has high potential and does represent a direct climate-change mitigation technology • CSS economic model is not good unless significant fines/penalty for total country emissions are enacted • The next 5-10 years are a critical window to build pilot projects to gain real world experience and assess scaled up feasibility

21. Conclusions II • Clearly the electric power sector is the prime target. Production of electricity and in situ injection could determine sites of future LNG facilities. • But  what is wisest? Investing limited resources in CSS or ramping up other sustainable energies (wind, solar, biofuel, hydrogen (from wind and solar))  this is a very tough call to make right now