Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector JOHN PEREZ-GARCIA 1 , LINDA A. JOYCE 2 ,

1. Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector JOHN PEREZ-GARCIA1, LINDA A. JOYCE2, A.DAVID. MCGUIRE3 AND XIANGMING XIAO4 1Associate Professor, Center for International Trade in Forest Products, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2100, USA. 2Project Leader, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, 80526-2098, USA. 3Associate Professor, U. S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA. 4Research Assistant Professor Complex Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.

2. Man’s Impact on Climate • George Perkins Marsh • Man and Nature Or, Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action • Originally published in 1864

3. Nordhaus: To Slow or Not To SlowGreenhouse Gas Emissions

4. What Has Been Done with Global Forest Sector • Binkley et al. 1988 • Joyce et al. 1995 • Sohngen and Mendelsohn. 1998

5. Process Modeling Logic CO2 Atmosphere Increase Future climate regimes Altered growth of forests Impact on forest inventories Changing economic timber supplies Changes in production, consumption, prices and trade

6. Process Modeling Logic CO2 Atmosphere Increase EPPA/IGSM/GCMs Future climate regimes TEM Altered growth of forests Impact on forest inventories CGTM Changing economic timber supplies Changes in production, consumption, prices and trade

7. Work with CGTM • GCM and EPPA/IGSM • TEM • NPP • Vegetative carbon • Global in scope

8. NPP Study: 1997

10. Alternative Perspective: Annual Change versus Change from One Steady State to Another

12. NPP versus Vegetative Carbon

13. Global Average NPP vs. Vegetative Carbon Over Time

14. Harvests under NPP and Vegetative Carbon

15. What Do We Do • Evaluate potential economic responses of the global forest sector to different scenarios of climate change produced from alternative levels of greenhouse gas emissions • Economic baseline includes recent collapse of Asian economy and fall in production and consumption of wood products in Russia

16. Suite of Models Used in the Analysis • EPPA: emissions production and policy analysis • IGSM: integrated global system model • TEM: terrestrial ecosystem model • CGTM: economic trade model • All equilibrium models • Climate equilibrium • Ecosystem equilibrium • Economic equilibrium

17. Climate Equilibrium • Previously used 4 GCM’s • Did not consider atmospheric-ocean coupling • Did not consider atmospheric aerosols • Doubling of CO2 climate • Did not consider annual fluctuations • Different treatment of radiative forcing associated with elevated CO2

18. Ecosystem Equilibrium • Vegetation is in equilibrium • Responses are based on time-dependant simulations of terrestrial biogeochemical models • No successional dynamics • No species migration dynamics • No disturbance dynamics

19. Economic Equilibrium • Partial equilibrium model • Explicitly considers wood costs • Explicitly considers trade in forest products • Does not consider forest sector feedbacks to other economic sectors • Does not consider carbon sequestration effects

20. IGSM • Takes information from EPPA and creates transient climate change scenarios (Prinn et al., 1999). • We use 3 of these scenarios RRR, HHL and LLH, where the reference set of parameters and assumptions generates the RRR scenario.

21. RRR • Similar to the IS92a scenarios of IPPC

23. LLH • Based on lower CO2 emissions from EPPA • Faster diffusion of heat into the ocean • Larger effects of cooling associated with atmospheric aerosol • Largest heating effects associated with the radiative forcing of increasing CO2 • Leads to a smaller temperature change relative to RRR

25. HHL • Higher CO2 emissions from EPPA model • Slower diffusion of heat into the ocean • Smaller effects of cooling associated with atmospheric aerosols • Smaller heating effects associated with radiative forcing of doubling CO2 • Leads to larger changes in temperature relative to RRR

27. CGTM • TEM-based changes in vegetative carbon are aggregated by timber types (softwood and hardwood). • An index of proportional annual change in timber growing stock associated with changes in CO2 and climate for each grid cell in TEM is calculated.

28. CGTM Regions Finland Sweden (FIN) (SWE) Former Soviet Union, West and East (SUW, SUE) Canada (see Map 3) United States (see Map 2) Western Europe (EUW) Japan (JPN) China (CHN) Korea (KOR) Taiwan-Hong Central America Kong (THK) Eastern Europe and Mexico (CAM) Middle East (EUE) Philippines (MDE) (PHL) India (IND) Africa North (AFN) Indochina (ICH) Northern South Malaysia East Malaysia West (MAW) America (SAN) (MAE) Indonesia (IDN) Brazil Papua New Guinea (PNG) Rest of Oceania (OCN) Africa West East Africa (BRA) (AFW) (AFE) Australia (AUS) Chile (CHI) Southern South America (SAS) Africa South (AFS) New Zealand (NWZ)

29. Economic Variability • Intensive economic margin or upward sloping supply curve • Constrain harvest to economic baseline for non-responsive regions • Extensive economic margin • Relaxes constrain on harvest for non-responsive regions

30. General Results: More Production (More Growing Stock) Prices Quantity

31. General Results: Lower Prices (More Production) Prices Quantity

32. General Results: Greater Welfare Prices Quantity

34. However There is a lot of Regional Variability

35. Regional Variability

36. Which Leads to Regional Price Changes

38. And Regional Harvest Changes

40. As A Result Regional Welfare Changes

44. Some Future Directions