hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups
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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups). UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance 2010. แผนเอดส์ชาติ 2555-9 : Getting to Zero.

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hiv size estimation of hiv high risk groups

การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance

2010

slide5
ประมาณการกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV

ทำยังไง?

1. สำรวจแหล่งข้อมูลที่มีอยู่แล้ว

- คลินิกกามโรค?

- ศูนย์บำบัดยาเสพติด?

- ห้องฉุกเฉิน?

- เรือนจำ?

2. พิจารณา จุดอ่อน จุดแข็ง ของข้อมูลและฐานข้อมูล

3. สำรวจเพิ่มเติม

slide10

วิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไป

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010

Multi-stage block sampling

slide12

วิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไป

UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010

t echnical working group for national estimation
Technical working group for national estimation
  • A technical working group consisted of representatives from various organizations were formed:
    • Bureau of Epidemiology (BOE)
    • Chulalongkorn University
    • East-West Center
    • MEASURE
    • National AIDS Management Center (NAMC)
    • Research Institute for Health Sciences (RIHES)
    • Thailand MoPH– U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC)
    • UNAIDS
    • UNFPA
  • Six meetings were held during September – December 2011 to discuss and find the best currently available estimates figures
steps in estimation for each population
Steps in estimation for each population *
  • Determine utilization of the size estimation and when it will be needed
    • To determine program coverage and national cost estimates for programs
    • Regular national size estimation will be needed e.g. every two years
  • Define population and geographic area
    • Population is defined based on recent behavior (e.g. sex with another man in the past year, injecting within the past 2 years)
    • Area = national estimates (details on how to arrive at the national estimates will be discussed in other section)
  • Review existing data sources for estimation
    • Existing data sources for each population were reviewed. Limitations and strengths of each method were discussed.
steps in estimation for each population continued
Steps in estimation for each population (continued)*
  • Compile existing data and collect additional data e.g.
    • Proportion of IDU, FSW, MSM behaviors reported in surveillance data over years
    • Additional mapping data on FSW & MSM from BMA and STI cluster
    • Discuss with key informants
  • Identify strengths and limitations from each source and how the existing data could be interpreted e.g.
    • Minimal or maximum estimates
    • Overall or sub-groups
    • Geographic coverage of estimation
steps in estimation for each population continued1
Steps in estimation for each population (continued)
  • Determine approaches and assumptions to be used for calculating national size estimates of each population
    • Triangulation of available data sources (e.g. survey data over years, literature review) to get a ‘fixing’ parameter as opposed to picking one estimation method that is currently available
    • Account for over or under estimates of the existing data source
  • Verify the estimates with other additional supporting information e.g.
    • IBBS among male military conscripts and vocational school student to examine distribution of estimated populations
    • AIDS case data
steps in estimation for each population continued2
Steps in estimation for each population (continued)
  • Identify follow up issues needed to be addressed for improving future national estimates e.g.
    • Additional questions on the IBBS survey to identify proportion of population/sub-groups of interest
slide20
RDS Recruitment site

Network Scal-up Recruitment site

Number of participants by districts(Chiang Mai)

Estimation:

1,500

(727-6000

N = 309 (Missing data = 1)

Muang 228

N=409 in 8 areas (Chiang Mai)

Estimation:

2,260 – 4,012

Number of participants in districts

0

1-10

11-20

21-40

>40

Omkoy

32

slide21
Conclusion: IDU size estimate for 2010-2011

National Household Survey on Substance Abuse, 2011

Method: Ask direct question ‘Have you ever injected drug?’

Results: Ever injected any drugs = 29,300 IDUs

Asian Epidemic Model based on RDS study in Bangkok, 2004

Method: Assumptions 1: 30% underestimation

Assumption 2: Bangkok/National AIDS case ratio

can be a multiplier.

Results: Any injections in the past 6 months = 38,300 IDUs

Regional NSUM Survey, 2010

Method: Known population scale-up & Summation:

Results: IDUs known in the past 2 years = 40,300 – 97,300

Consensus number (10 Jan. 2012) = 40,300

Technical Consultation: Size Estimation of MARPs in Asian Countries (23-5 September, 2013, Hong Kong )

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