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Global Markets Media - Wine Investment 2008. Peter Lunzer - December 2 nd , 2008. Wine Investment 2008. Outlook for Wine Investment in 2009. The key areas to consider regarding the prospect of predictable returns from investment grade wines. Assessing demand.

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global markets media wine investment 2008
Global Markets Media - Wine Investment 2008

Peter Lunzer - December 2nd, 2008

wine investment 2008

Wine Investment 2008

Outlook for Wine Investment in 2009

The key areas to consider regarding the prospect of predictable returns from investment grade wines.

Assessing demand.

Any significant changes to supply.

Key developments in the market.

Rising stars of Bordeaux.

Looking for signs of an overheated market.

Finite supply for a Global Demand.

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Wine Investment 2008

Assessing Demand

Constant and growing global demand for a finite and diminishing supply.

Wine features very humbly among all the extravagances enjoyed by wealthy individuals:

Lear Jet 60XR - £12,500,000.

Sunseeker Yacht 105 - £4,900,000.

Chateau Petrus 1990 - £28,500 per case; Chateau Lynch Bages 1990 - £1,500 per case.

Demand for wines that have a brand.

Consumers are looking to impress others as much as enjoy the content of the bottle:

Brands such as Chateau Lafite are powerful and growing in popularity.

The majority of producers have not achieved brand status.

Demand from consumption.

Who is currently buying fine wines to consume:

Emerging Markets.

Traditional Markets.

Investment industry demand.

What has been the influence of the Wine Investment World?

Merchants offering advice or are actively involved in fund management.

Investment advisers from City / financial backgrounds.

Investment advisers from the wine world.

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Wine Investment 2008

Changes to Supply

How much wine is there in the market place and how is the supply changing?

Initial assumption of stock availability of investment grade wines - Estimate is between £6bn to £8bn globally.

Annual contribution from a high quality harvest - Estimate is between £1.5bn to £2bn.

Who owns the stock?

Biggest single change to the market in the past 6 years has been the Chateau keeping back a higher than ever percentage of production - especially since the 2005 vintage which was in such short supply that prices rose steeply for longer than normal.

What effect will there be from stock ownership altering from many individuals to a small number of large scale investment funds ?

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Wine Investment 2008

Key developments in the market

There are a number of developments which will influence the future of wine pricing and availability.

Emergence of new wine funds.

Understanding why Bordeaux remains prominent compared to:



New World.

Global transparency of pricing.

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Wine Investment 2008

Rising Stars of Bordeaux

First Growths

Château Lafite Rothschild

Château Latour

Château Margaux

Château Haut-Brion

Château Mouton Rothschild

Second Growths

  • Château Rauzan-Ségla
  • Château Rauzan-Gassies
  • Château Léoville-Las Cases
  • Château Léoville-Poyferré
  • Château Léoville Barton
  • Château Durfort-Vivens
  • Château Gruaud-Larose
  • Château Lascombes
  • Château Brane-Cantenac
  • Château Pichon Longueville Baron
  • Château Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande
  • Château Ducru-Beaucaillou
  • Château Cos d'Estournel
  • Château Montrose
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Wine Investment 2008

Rising Stars of Bordeaux

Third Growths

Château Kirwan

Château d'Issan

Château Lagrange, St.-Julien

Château Langoa Barton

Château Giscours

Château Malescot St. Exupéry

Château Cantenac-Brown

Château Boyd-Cantenac

Château Palmer

Château La Lagune

Château Desmirail

Château Calon-Ségur

Château Ferrière

Château Marquis d'Alesme Becker

Fourth Growths

  • Château Saint-Pierre
  • Château Talbot
  • Château Branaire-Ducru
  • Château Duhart-Milon-Rothschild
  • Château Pouget
  • Château La Tour Carnet
  • Château Lafon-Rochet
  • Château Beychevelle
  • Château Prieuré-Lichine
  • Château Marquis de Terme

Fifth Growths

  • Château Pontet-Canet
  • Château Batailley
  • Château Haut-Batailley
  • Château Haut-Bages-Libéral
  • Château Grand-Puy-Lacoste
  • Château Grand-Puy-Ducasse
  • Château Lynch-Bages
  • Château Lynch-Moussas
  • Château Dauzac
  • Château d'Armailhac
  • Château du Tertre
  • Château Pédesclaux
  • Château Belgrave
  • Château de Camensac
  • Château Cos Labory
  • Château Clerc-Milon
  • Château Croizet Bages
  • Château Cantemerle
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Wine Investment 2008

Looking for signs of an overextended market

Some prices from Liv-ex as at 30th November 2008

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Wine Investment 2008

Finite supply for a Global Demand!