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Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

"Discover how FORAS technology revolutionizes flight safety with proactive per-flight risk assessment. Learn about the benefits of instant risk overview, identifying actionable components for mitigation, and its use at corporate management levels. See how dispatchers calculate risk index and safety managers receive support for operations. Understand the input and output components, critical parameters, and computational flows involved in risk assessment. FORAS also offers affordable access, various installation options, and customized risk models. Ensure crew roster tracking, flight information system integration, MEL data access, and internet connection for FORAS requirements. Benefit from centralized safety knowledge, connect human factors with risk data, and customize the program to fit your airline's operations for a proactive safety approach. Contact Flight Safety Foundation, Danny Ho from EVA Airways, or Mike Hadjimichael from MITRE Corporation for further information."

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Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

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  1. Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014

  2. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

  3. A Little History • Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997 • US Naval Research Laboratory • EVA Airways • MITRE Corporation

  4. Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS AeroSafety World November2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

  5. Benefits • Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment • Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index • Full explanation and breakdown of risk components • Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

  6. Levels of Use • Corporate Management • Safety Department • Dispatch, Crew

  7. How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies Central Server calculates Risk Index ALERT! Safety Manager Supporting Operations Databases

  8. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors • Sector (City-pair) Factors • Aircraft Factors

  9. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System • Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases • Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

  10. Output • Risk Index • Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0 • Relative score • Compare to baseline (average) • Critical Parameter identification • Identify actionable over-limit parameters 10.0 1.0

  11. Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2nd level review

  12. FORAS Interface (EVA example)

  13. Example: Single fleet, single route trend

  14. Example: Single fleet comparison

  15. What are the critical parameters?

  16. Critical Parameters – City pair

  17. Critical Parameter – One fleet

  18. Method

  19. Knowledge-based System Experts Performance Data Forensic Event Analyses Studies and Statistics

  20. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  21. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  22. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  23. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  24. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  25. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Computation Flows Upwards

  26. Example Risk Factors (ALAR) • Conditions which lead to increased risk • Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): • Inter-crew communication • Crew experience • Experience at airport • Transient fatigue • Cumulative fatigue • Approach and Landing related MEL items • Sector length • ATC skill • Complex approach • Airport congestion • Visual Conditions

  27. FORAS Foundation • Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. • FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management • Managed by a committee of trustees • Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models • Progressively priced based on fleet size • Available installation and training • Stand-alone or cloud-based installation • Generic or customized risk models

  28. FORAS Requirements • Crew Roster and Tracking • Flight Information System, MEL data • NOTAM access • Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

  29. FORAS Foundation Further Information • Contact Flight Safety Foundation • Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation • Danny Ho, EVA Air

  30. Summary

  31. Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

  32. Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

  33. Thank you • Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation

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