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Shale Gas Potential in Germany – Pre -Exploration E stimates Brussels , 17th Sept. 2015

This report assesses the potential of shale gas in Germany, considering geological formations, reserves, and economic relevance. Skepticism in the public and action groups against fracking are also discussed.

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Shale Gas Potential in Germany – Pre -Exploration E stimates Brussels , 17th Sept. 2015

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  1. Shale Gas Potential in Germany – Pre-Exploration Estimates Brussels, 17th Sept. 2015 Hans-Joachim Kümpel, Federal Institute forGeosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hannover, Germany

  2. Rationale forShale Gas Issue • Assessment ofShale Gas Potential • Skepticism in the Public

  3. Germany‘s Dependance on the Import of Energy Resources - 2003 and 2013 - Others2 % Primary EnergyConsumption 2013 Renewables NuclearFuels Import Domestic Oil 33 % Lignite Natural Gas 22 % • 55 % of PEC HardCoal Primary Energy [Mt SKE] Lignite Renewables Natural Gas NuclearFuels Geothermics Oil HardCoal

  4. Germany‘sOilSupply 1960 - 2013 Oil Share of PEC Others Near East OilSuply [Mio t] Oil Share of PEC [%] USSR /GUS • ca. 33 % of German energyrequirement; • 5 % decreasesince 2000 Africa EU & Norway DomesticProduction

  5. Germany‘s Natural Gas Supply 1960 - 2013 • ca. 22 % ofGermany‘senergyrequirement; hardlychangedsince 20 years Natural Gas Share of PEC Others • Almost 50 % for private households (heating, warm water) Norway Natural Gas Share of PEC [%] Natural Gas Quantity [PJ] Russia The Netherlands ? DomesticProduction

  6. Germany‘s Imports of Energy Resources (2013) Figuresfor Germany in Mio t SKE Oil Natural GasHardCoal Russia Norway The Netherlands Great Britain Nigeria Kazachstan Libya USA Columbia asto: World Energy Council Germany, e.V., 2014 Quelle: H.-W. Schiffer (ermittelt auf Basis BAFA)

  7. Development of domestic gas production (crude gas) and gas reservessince 1991 Natural gas productionwithoil gas Natural gas reserves Natural Gas Producton [Billion m³] Natural Gas Reserves [Billion m³] Germany‘s Natural Gas Production and Reserves (asto 01.01.2014)

  8. Rationale forShale Gas Issue • Assessment ofShale Gas Potential • Skepticism in the Public

  9. Natural Gas off Clay Rock 1. Report June 2012 Shale Gas Potential in Germany Projekt NIKO* www.bgr.bund.de * unconventional HCs Abschätzung des Erdgaspotenzials aus dichten Tongesteinen (Schiefergas) in Deutschland • Assessment • Volumetric(Gas-in-Place) • Monte-Carlo-Simulation • GIS • Formation-parameter • Facies • Depth • Thickness • Screening • Formations • Regions • Literature • Former studies (e.g. SPBA-Atlas)

  10. Potential Shale Gas Provinces in Germany Criteria • Facies: • bituminous, clayey - marly • Corg > 2 % • Thickness > 20 m • Depth: 1000 to 5000 m • Thermal maturity 1.3 – 3.5 % Ro Potential forShale Gas

  11. Germany’s Shale Gas Potential First Assessment 2011/2012 Gas-in-Place Minim. 7 Median 13 Maxim. 23 x 1012 m³ • GeologicFormations: • Cretaceous (Wealden) • Jurassic(Posid. Shale) • LowerCarbon (Alum Shale) 1012 m³ = 1.000 Billion m³ techn. recoverbale 10 % conv. Resources conv. Reserves X 0,09 (asof 1.1.2015)

  12. Germany’s Shale Gas Potential • Potential GeologicFormations (recentassessment) Area withshale gas potential

  13. Availability of Shale Gas Scenario:In 2010 Germany‘snatural gas requirement was about 100 Billion m³. Assumption 1: Decreaseof 10 Billion m³/decade, due toenergytransition. Assumption 2: 720 Billion m³ domesticshale gas arerecoverable.  for60 years: 12 Billion m³/annum … in theperiod 2020 to 2080. Domesticshare Import share

  14. EconomicRelevance (Dimension) • Contributiontolong-termstability of energyprices • affordableenergy • investmentsecurity Commodityvalue: (Currency drain) 12 Bn. m³ ~ 4 Bn. € ~ 40 Bn. € / decade ca. 10,000 mainly high-classifiedjobs*: economicalvalue ~ 1.0 Bn. € / annum incl. taxes/charges ~ 0.2 Bn. € / annum ~ 2 Bn. € / decade • Further 10,000 in periphery Investment: Orders tothirdparties ~ Bn. € / annum Royalties: tothestates: ~ 0.7 Bn. € / annum ~ 7 Bn. € / decade *) www.dihk.de/presse/thema-der-woche(14.08.2014)

  15. CouldDomesticProductionraiseasswiftlyas in the USA? Active Drilling Units Worldwide (as of: Febr. 2014) • No!Neitheranycomparablepricedecrease • Statement that German shale gas onlylasts • for 12 yearsismisleading Worldwide: 3736 Drilling Units Offshore: 374 Drilling Units Onshore: 3362 Drilling Units Source: Petroleum Africa 4/2014

  16. Rationale forShale Gas Issue • Assessment ofShale Gas Potential • Skepticism in the Public

  17. Action Groups againstFracking Fracking? – No, thanks! 43 actiongroupsfor a fracking-freefuture (as of 12.12.2014) Verena Lange

  18. Opinion of the German State Geological Surveys = neutral stateauthorities • „In asfaras • the legal regulations and • thetechnicalstandardsareobserved • and detailedlocation-basedpreinvestigationsareperformed, • applicationofthefracking-technology isgeoscientificallycontrolled, safe, and sustainable.“ • State Geol. Surveys of Germany (Feb. 2013)

  19. Position Paper acatech (June 2015) Key statement: „On thebasis of scientific and technicalfacts a generalprohibition of hydraulicfrackingcannotbejustified.“ [Tagesspiegel, 1.7.2015]

  20. The ClimateProtection Argument Concerns Facts Forsomesuppliercountries: probable Fordomesticproduction: neglectable Burning gas leadsto CO2-emission Even withambitiousscenarios: demandholdsfordecades, at least until 2080 Energytransitionispostponed Least emission of all fossile energies Gas shouldbe fossile energytobeusedlongest. CH4releases in shale gas production Domesticproduction: lowenergyconsumption due toshorttransits Domestic gas hasbestclimatebudget • Savings 5 Mio t CO2/ a (WEG; Juni 2015)

  21. Whathappened? neutral critical Routine shale gas production (USA) Complexsituation (expert issue) Movie„Gasland“ Isolatedcasesofdamages ‘Encouragement‘ of some NGOs failures: in communication, nobaselinemeasurements… Subjectsuitableforcampaigning News valueforthemedia Causinguncertainty in public „Ifanysocialcurrentsucceedstomobilize 5 % of thepopulationfortheirissue, protests, enhancedbythemedia, cannolongerbeignoredbypolitics.“ (O.Renn; 2011) Tricky subjectforpolitics Broadrejection resp. skepticism Self-regulation of the Free Press (newsvalue, neutral opinion) Economicsignificance (esp. LowerSaxony)  Legislative Procedure…

  22. 4 Conclusionsto Fracking • The geologicshalegas potential for Germany issignifcant, yetiseconomically not expectedtobecome a ‘gamechanger‘. • Due tohighlyoverblownriskscenariosandinappropriatereports, skepticism in thepublicisunderstandable. Labellingfrackingasrisktechnology, is not tenable. • State Geological Surveys andother expert groupsfacedifficultiesto find reasonsforgeneralprohibitionoffracking; thisis also due for a limitingdepthof 3,000 m, asunderconsideration in Germany. • Arguments of climateprotection in contextofenergytransitiondo not speakagainst but rather in favourfracking.

  23. Thankyouforyour Interest

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