Jon Knight 22 nd Technical Consultation among Regional Plant Protection Organisations

1. Emerging approaches to phytosanitary risk management decision challenges: PRATIQUE – a European Project Jon Knight 22nd Technical Consultation among Regional Plant Protection Organisations PI: Richard Baker (FERA, UK) Imperial College London Team: John Mumford, Megan Quinlan, John Holt, Adrian Leach,

2. What is a Pratique? Enhancements of Pest Risk Analysis Techniques • Organised around the existing PRA scheme developed by EPPO • European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO, 1997); working with revision from 2007 • Three year project (March 2008 - 2011) • €4.13 million (510 person months) • Funded by the European Union under FP 7 “Building the European research area of knowledge for growth” • 15 Partners • 11 partners (NPPOs and universities) from 9 European countries, plus subcontracts to Russian and Chinese institutions • Partners from Australia and New Zealand, plus active observers from Canada and the United States of America. • Two international organisations as partners (EPPO and CABI Switzerland Centre)

3. EU 7th Framework Call Text (ii) Key work will focus on risk assessment issues and will include: • identifying and integrating key national and international datasets • exploring new techniques and refining existing tools • - especially validation of techniques that assess economic, environmental or social impacts/costs • developing system approachesfor pest risk management to analyse and enhance the effectiveness of Plant Health policy • developing novel and sustainable pest management strategies with integrated technical support for policy development in the case of emergency situations/pest outbreaks, especially those pests that are difficult to control.

4. PRATIQUE partners

5. PRATIQUE: Principal project objectives & Work Packages • To assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU (WP1) • To conduct multi-disciplinary research to enhance the techniques used in PRA for: • the assessment of economic, environmental and social impacts (WP2) • standardising and summarising risk (WP3) • pathway analysis and systems approaches (WP4) • guiding actions during pest outbreaks (WP5) • To ensure that the PRA scheme is fit for purpose and user-friendly (WP6)

6. PRATIQUE Work Packages

7. PRATIQUE: Structure WP1:Identifying and Integrating Datasets WP2: Assessing Impacts WP4: Pathway Analysis & Systems Approaches WP5: Action at Outbreaks WP3: Standardising and Summarising Risk Assessments Pest risk assessment Pest risk management WP6: Web-based PRA scheme,Dissemination & Validation

8. PRATIQUE: Work Packages & Stages in the PRA Scheme Stages in the PRA Scheme PRATIQUE Work Package Coverage Detailed pest risk assessment needed? Entry WP4 Establishment WP3 Spread WP6 WP1 Impacts WP2 Pest/pathway risk assessment conclusions Analysis of risk management options WP5 WP4 Risk Communication

9. WP 2 – Enhancing techniques for economic, environmental and social impacts • To determine the extent to which the analysis of species traits can be used to identify those species that can cause significant impacts in cultivated and uncultivated habitats • To develop a novel scoring system to assess impacts and determine thresholds for phytosanitary action • To enhance existing techniques and develop new tools for assessing economic, environmental and social impacts • To develop a generic integrated model to assess pest spread and impacts

10. WP 3 – Enhancing techniques for standardising and summarising pest risk assessments • To enhance the consistency and standardisation of pest risk assessments by identifying and applying appropriate criteria • To develop and test new techniques for quantifying uncertainty in pest risk assessments • To enhance techniques for mapping endangered areas taking current and future climate, land use and economic impacts into account • To develop and test new techniques for summarising and communicating overall risk in pest risk assessment

11. WP 4 – Enhancing techniques for pathway analysis and systems approaches • Review of current approaches to pathway analysis in PRA • Review of the current application of systems approaches in PRA • Development of a pathway risk analysis module for the PRA scheme with a protocol for the application of neural networks and methods for enhancing consistency • Development of a systems approach module for the PRA scheme

12. WP 5 – Developing a decision support system for the eradication and containment of pest outbreaks • To carry out a meta-analysis of the successes and failures of pest eradication and containment programmes worldwide • To provide guidance for analysing the cost-effectiveness of pest eradication and containment measures • To develop a decision support scheme to support actions to be taken following pest outbreaks • To provide recommendations for the application of pest surveillance techniques in detecting pest incursions and managing outbreaks

13. WP 6 – Project validation and dissemination with the development of a web-based PRA scheme • To validate the outputs from work packages 1 to 5 using independent experts and a wide range of pests and pathways • To create a web-enabled EPPO PRA scheme incorporating outputs from work packages 1 to 5 • To consolidate and disseminate project outputs by providing a manual and examples of best practice with the web-enabled PRA scheme

14. Web-based PRA scheme

15. As a first step towards applying Systems Approach, section 3 questions were re-ordered as a time line, related to Critical Control Points (CCP)

16. Significant probability of Entry Significant probability of establishment Is the pest under official control? Is produce from pest free areas? Is place of production low prevalence? Are there other targeted activities that may be equivalent? Existing management practices on pathway (1.7) or existing management practices in Importing country prevents entry or establishment of organism (1.21) Are existing measures sufficient and acceptable to the importer? Agreement on data requirements Monitoring & surveillance (3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28) No Yes Commodity pathway 1. Dunnage etc pathway 1. Conveyances pathway 1. Plants for planting pathway for potential weeds 1. Natural Spread pathway 1. Checklist of risk management policy

17. Commodity pathway (1, 2, 3 etc) Identify any reasons for revision On Farm What is the pest status at origin of the pathway? (present, absent, confined under official control, low prevalence) Low uncertainty (high confidence) None found Present under official control, pest free areas or place of production or low prevalence Absent List available choices (3.30) 3.20 Preventable by treatment of crop Agreement on data requirements Monitoring & surveillance (3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28) High uncertainty (Low confidence) 3.24 Preventable by production certification scheme (Pest free planting material or specified phytosanitary status) Pest found Confirmatory surveys in exporting country 3.21 Preventable by cultivars/Resistant cultivars Seasonal or periodic inspection of growing area Elimination of alternative hosts and/or creation of buffer zones Auditing (system review) Traceability established 3.13, 3.14 Detectable by visual inspection or tests & 3.43 Issue of phytosanitary certificate Safeguarding to prevent subsequent infestation (clean storage and conveyances) Maintenance of consignment integrity 3.22 Preventable by growing conditions Glasshouses, sterilized soil , cultivation practices etc. 3.23 Preventable by choice of harvesting times (maturity level, season, growth stage etc.) Post harvest (preclearance) 3.18 Preventable by packing & handling methods Preventable by removal of non-required parts (3.17) Chlorine wash, controlled atmosphere, shrink wrap, etc 3.16 Controlled by treatments (chemical etc) Post entry 3.15 Post entry quarantine (Detention at a designated place pending measures) 3.13, 3.14 Detectable by visual inspection or tests 3.29 Targeted surveillance measures in importing countries Trapping, surveys, public reporting systems etc. 3.19 Conditional import , Limited distribution, Limited period of entry, Designated use e.g. processing, Advance notification Destruction or re-export Go to risk managers checklist 3.7 Post-entry control possible, Effective containment/eradication post entry (also 3.29)

20. Developing trade opportunities: an integrated systems approach for pest risk management STDF Proposal Preparation Grant Focus on S E Asia sub-region

21. Beyond Compliance Problems (Benefits): • Failure of single/rigid measures can be disruptive to trade(less risk in multiple measure/adaptive systems, more flexibility from Systems Approach (SA), reduced interceptions in export markets); limitations of current measures (improved performance, availability, cost, quality impacts, practicality) • Rigid measures may be applied without regard to risk from real pest challenge, control optionsand without benefit of local knowledge and decision making skills (broader stakeholder involvement, cost and responsibility sharing, more ownership of risk management, more stakeholder control over process) • Asymmetric relations in trade: lack of confidence in negotiations especially for the more complex SA examples (SA defined and understood, SA implemented or planned, market access started/in discussion, better opportunities for less active exporter countries in the Region by Regional SA); reactive relations with trading partners (more control over system in negotiation)

22. Rationale • Pest risk management imposed by importing country NPPOs will be more transparent, consistent and justified as proportional to the estimated risk. • Measures combined in the new approach will be more widely applied without unnecessary redundancy. • National goals to reduce use of chemical-based end point treatments will be advanced. • Exporting countries with fewer resources will have the capacity to more confidently negotiate equivalence agreements to use measures better suited to their own conditions.

23. Anticipated Outputs • A description of pest risk management evaluation and design in the region • Case studies of priority trade opportunities using Systems Approach for pest risk management. (7 cases identified) • Demonstration and evaluation of quantification and analytical tools (specifically control points and Bayesian Nets) to support use of Systems Approach • Establishment of a competency base with the methodology in the SE Asian subregion • A plan for a harmonised framework (possibly leading to an RSPM)

24. Beyond Compliance - activities Output: Demonstration and evaluation of quantification and analytical tools (Control Points and BBN) • Development of the tool • Demonstration of the tool • Validation of the tool …for each of the case studies.

25. Thank you • Any questions? • www.pratiqueproject.eu

27. Beyond Compliance – case studies • Import of fresh produce (not rubber plants) as a pathway of SALB from countries not free of SALB to the region [Malaysia leads, e.g. Brazil] • Import of oil palm tissue culture, seedlings from outside subregion [Thailand leads, from CR] • Vietnam Dragon fruit to S Korea and Taiwan • Philippines mangosteen and avocado to USA • Indonesia mangosteen to Australia • Malaysia jackfruit to China and Australia • Thailand orchid cut flowers to Europe