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Small Business Procurement Conference

Small Business Procurement Conference. The Economy Is Showing Signs Of Growing Strength. Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. May 24, 2012. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

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Small Business Procurement Conference

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  1. Small Business Procurement Conference The Economy Is Showing Signs Of Growing Strength Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University May 24, 2012

  2. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  3. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Apr

  4. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted (1000s) Apr = + 1.7 M Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  5. US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s Apr = 115 Source: BLS

  6. U.S. Job Change by SectorApr 2011 – Apr 2012 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,816 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  7. U.S. Job Change by SectorMar 2012 – Apr 2012 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 115 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  8. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 379 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  9. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Apr = 8.1 GI FCST 12 – 8.1 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.2 15 – 6.5 16 – 6.1 17 – 5.9 Source: BLS(Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight (forecasts)

  10. Oil Prices$ per barrel $/barrel Forecast > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  11. Consumer Confidence 100 Expectations Current Situation Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  12. Interest Rates 2001 - 2017 Forecast > > > > Source: Global Insight

  13. U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) Source: NAHB (New) and NAR (Existing Sales Rebenchmark 12/11)

  14. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. U.S. Economic Performance % Source: BEA, Global Insight

  16. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > Source: BEA, Global Insight

  17. The Washington Economy

  18. Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1,000s Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2010 –2011 (000s) Washington + 32,600 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  20. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2011 – Apr 2012 (000s) Washington + 34,500 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  21. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Job Change by SectorApr 2011 – Apr 2012Washington MSA Total = 34,500 (000s) Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  23. Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  24. Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Job Change by SectorApr 2011 – Apr 2012Northern Virginia Total 17,700 (000s) Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateMarch 2012 % US 8.2 5.5 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

  28. Unemployment Rate 9.9 – DC 8.2 – U.S. 5.8 – SMD 5.5 – MSA 4.4 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  29. Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

  30. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2015 based on 2012 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 4/1/2012 NOTE: 2011 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar 13, 2012 published MSA total.

  32. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  33. George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu

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