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Some controversial results on the radiative forcing of our climate system as extracted from model results of the AMIP-2 and IPCC-FAR and from the radiation climatologies of the ISCCP-FD and GEWEX-SRB Seminar at CIRA-CSU Fort Collins 8 June 2006 Ehrhard Raschke (with Stefan Kinne, MPI)

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slide1

Some controversial results on the radiative forcing of our climate system as extracted from model results of the

AMIP-2 and IPCC-FAR

and from the radiation climatologies of the

ISCCP-FD and GEWEX-SRB

Seminar at CIRA-CSU Fort Collins

8 June 2006

Ehrhard Raschke

(with Stefan Kinne, MPI)

University of Hamburg

Center for Maritime and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW)

slide2

Downward solar radiation anomalies at surface, from Pinker et al., 2005, Science

Shortwave anomalies at TOA, from Wielicki et al., 2005, Science

CONFUSION ??

ISCCP, GEWEX-SRB and CERES (+ others) produce radiation climatologies

slide3

AMIP-2

IPCC-FAR

Deviations of incoming solar radiation at TOA from monthly zonal means

Raschke et al., 2005, GRL

slide4

MPI-ECHAM 5

ISCCP-FD

Deviations of incoming solar radiation at TOA from monthly zonal means during an entire year

Raschke et al., 2005, GRL

slide5

IPCC -FAR

AMIP-2

Annual global averages of TSI at TOA

(Raschke, Kinne, Giorgetta, Wild, 2005, GRL)

slide7

1985 - 1988

(Raschke, Kinne, Giorgetta, Wild, 2005, GRL)

slide8

Modelers use different routines to compute spatial and temporal variations of the incoming solar radiation at TOA with the net result of often quite different meridional radiative forcing of the climate system.

Instead of the calendar leap year they should follow mother nature:

TROPICAL YEAR (add ¼ day each year)

slide9

Radiation budgets at surface

Cox et al., 2006, AMS-RC

slide10

Data status: December 2005, new releases after 15 May 2006

1.7%

5%

18.3%

25%

25%

18.3%

5%

1.7%

July 1983 to October 1995

slide11

From ISCCP documentation

SRB results are based on clouds from ISCCP, and temperature and humidity profiles from the Goddard Earth Observing System-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis product, and column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) archive. Other ancillary data ??

(CERES products are a combination of satellite measurements with computed fluxes.)

Cox et al., 2005, IRS in Butan

slide12

Radiation product

Primarily sensitive to … (in some order of priority)

KEEP in mind: trends can be caused by ancillary data!

Insolation at TOA

TSI, Astro-mechanics, spectrum, cut-off angle, care in computations

Planetary albedo

Clouds, surface albedo, aerosols, scene identification, angular models

Outgoing longwave radiation

at TOA

Temperature of atmosphere and surface, water vapor, clouds, scene, angular models

Downward longwave at surface

Atmospheric temperature and water vapor, clouds

Upward longwave

at surface

Surface skin temperature and effective emittance

Downward solar radiation at surface

Clouds, aerosols, moisture; insolation at TOA

Upward solar radiation at surface

Downward solar, surface albedo (and spectrum)

Longwave budgets at TOA and surface; integral divergence

Temperatures at surface and in the atmosphere; clouds

Solar budgets at TOA and surface; integral divergence

Clouds, aerosols, surface albedo

slide24

Do we see an effect of the „sudden“ increase of skin temperatures in other radiation products ?

slide25

NEW DATA – May 06

ISCCP: Dw lw at sfc and CE

ISCCP: OLR and CE

slide26

Solar down

Terrestrial down

slide27

Times of „great“ discoveries are over; now we have to look for high accuracy and stability.

Raschke et al., Int.J. Clim. 2005

slide28

ISCCP: Vertical radiative flux divergence (1991-1995) and cloud effect

Raschke et al., Int.J. Clim. 2005

slide29

Summary and Recommendations:

a.) Modelers must agree on same routines for insolation at TOA

b.) ISCCP and SRB disagree in various radiation products in particular over high-latitude regions.

c.) Both data sets might be disturbed by uncertainties in their many ancillary data, causing spurious “trends” in computed radiation fields. Independent validations required.

d.) Careful validation of radiation products vs. radiation budget measurements in space and vs. ground-based network data (e.g. BSRN) is still not yet done.

e.) Competition between different groups analyzing such data should be forced.