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Enhancing MENA Insurance Sector Growth Opportunities: Econometric Analysis

Explore the core economic and structural drivers of insurance industry penetration in MENA, with insights on country effects proxies and predictive factors for life and P&C insurance. Discover how factors like GDP per capita, population density, Sharia roles, and legal rights influence market dynamics.

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Enhancing MENA Insurance Sector Growth Opportunities: Econometric Analysis

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  1. Developing the MENA Insurance Sector – Econometric and Anecdotal Indicators Rodney Lester World Bank Consultant

  2. Source: AXCO

  3. Core economic and structural drivers of penetration – country effects proxies P&C Life GDP/ Capita GDP/ Capita Population (trade proxy) Inflation Population Inflation Population Density

  4. P&C Penetration v. GDP/ Capita and Actual v. Expected after economic and structural factors

  5. Life Penetration v. GDP/ Capita and Actual v. Expected after economic and structural factors

  6. Other highly predictive drivers of penetration Life P&C Concentration Private credit Private credit Private insurer SOM Private insurer SOM Sharia role Sharia role Bond Market Legal rights Legal rights Car fleet Top 20% income share Old age dependency

  7. The scale/ competition trade off leads to natural concentrations levels Source: Thorburn, ‘Insurers: Too Many, Too Few or Just right”

  8. Motor premiums in MENA are less than they should be

  9. Things that can be changed relatively quickly

  10. MENA’s low insurance penetration represents an enormous opportunity

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