North East Regional Economic Model(NEEM) Overview and Training Session

1. North East Regional Economic Model(NEEM)Overview and Training Session 2. Some actual examples, core data & labour market data 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

2. Some practical examples RES scenario work • Regional Economic Strategy Scenarios • Given the 90% RES scenario • What would need to happen in priority and non-priority sectors for the target to be hit? • What would this imply for employment? • What demand would be placed on the labour force in terms of qualifications and occupations?

3. Some practical examples RES scenario work “The RDA’s RES priority sectors focus primarily upon growth centred around relatively higher skilled areas of the regional economy; hence the FTE positions created require a much higher proportion of higher skilled workers than are presently contained within the region’s working labour force. This destruction of low skilled jobs, combined with the creation of higher skilled jobs, produces economy level demands for higher skilled workers that are well in excess of the typical proportional demands from any one sector.” 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

4. Some practical examples RES scenario work Illustrating the value of having numerical estimates. Scenario one from Modelling the North East Economy: Examining the qualification and occupation needs demanded by a scenario assuming the region achieves ninety percent of GB GVA per head 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

5. Some practical examples • What is the impact of tourist spending on the regional economy? • What is the impact of the spending by the HE sector on the regional economy? • What is the impact of ‘fuel poverty’ interventions on the regional economy? • If current trends continue within Northumberland what will county level employment look like, by sector, in 5 years time? In 10 years time? 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

6. Some practical examples • RAF Boulmer • Personnel numbers 1086 • a further 228 jobs were estimated to have been supported within the region by RAF Boulmer activities. 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

7. Core data outputs • Baselines and impact analysis can be produced in terms of • Gross output (basic prices) • GVA • Income (by occupational group) • Worker headcounts • FTE workers • FTE occupations • FTE qualifications • Business sites • etc 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

8. Key data sources • 6 years of funding from ONE • Data on 110 sectors • UK input-output balances • Annual Business Inquiry financial & employment data • HM Customs & Excise data • PESA analyses • Labour Force Survey • Family Expenditure Survey • New Earnings Survey • ONS regional accounts • International Passenger Survey & United Kingdom Tourism Survey • Regional survey (sample of 2,000 + firms in key industries) • etc 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

9. Comparability of outputs • The UK Input-Output Annual Supply and Use Tables is based on the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95) • ESA 95 is based on the United Nations System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 93). SNA 93 has been adopted worldwide and the ESA 95 based accounts are a legal requirement of European Union Member States • Better international comparisons • The UK moved onto the ESA 95 standard in 1998 • Available for UK, Scotland, Wales and the South West 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

10. Some benefits • “Improved access to better data” • Brings together the best regional data sources. • Most data unpublished/specially acquired • Achieves consistency across data sets • Expands scope of analysis whilst reducing user costs • Accounting framework links together different aspects of the economy allowing ‘interactivity’ between data (e.g. Export and employment together enable you to derive Exports per employee) • Allows ‘benchmarking’ e.g. between industries, regions, sub-regions, etc. • No search costs for users • Provides a sound basis for economic modelling 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

11. Labour market information • There are several different ways of representing employment in an industry. • The worker head count (f/t and p/t) - does not adjust for the amount of work done by an individual. • Full-time equivalent workers - adjusts part-time and casual workers for the amount of hours worked. • 'Self-employment' includes working proprietors, partners and executive directors. • The term 'worker' refers to employees and self-employed. 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

12. Labour market information • Employee data is derived from ABI/1 • Self employment data from ABI/2 and the LFS • The agricultural census and Defense Statistics are used to estimate the workforce in agriculture and HM Services • Hours worked by part-time/casual workers in each industry is estimated from the LFS • Estimates of the highest qualification obtained by workers and the occupation structure in each industry are derived from the LFS • Estimates are scaled to the total of FTE workers in each industry 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

13. Labour market information • Quality Assessment • Employee-related fair to good • Self-employee related fair • Sub-regional employment fair 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

14. Occupations • Corporate managers • Managers and proprietors in agriculture and services • Science and technology professionals • Health professionals • Teaching and research professionals • Business and public service professionals • Science and technology associate professionals • Health and social welfare associate professionals • Protective service occupations • Culture, media and sports professionals • Business and public service associate professionals • Administrative occupations • Secretarial and related occupations • Skilled agricultural trades • Skilled metal and electrical trades • Skilled construction and building trades • Textiles, printing and other skilled trades • Caring personal service occupations • Leisure and other personal service occupations • Sales occupations • Customer service occupations • Process, plant and machine operatives • Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives • Elementary trades, plant and storage related occupations • Elementary administration and storage occupations 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

15. Qualifications • NVQ equivalents • Highest qualification attained 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session

16. Households • The Regional Accounts classify households according to the labour market activity status and occupation of the ‘head of household’. • Unemployed • Inactive • Managers and senior officials • Professional occupations • Associate professional and technical • Administrative and secretarial occupations • Skilled trade occupations • Personal service occupations • Sales and customer service occupations • Plant and machine operatives • Elementary occupations 24 June 2008 North East Economic Model. Overview and training session