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Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management

Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management. 30 th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar Dubuque, Iowa Oct. 25, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Cattle Crush Margin.

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Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management

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  1. Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management 30th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar Dubuque, Iowa Oct. 25, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  3. 9/27/16 Projections (vs 9/2/16) 2016: $15 (vs $78) 2017: $22 (vs $86) 9/27/16 Projections (vs 9/4/15) 2016: $15 (vs $394) Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC

  4. Cattle on Feed―9/23 report • (1,000+ head capacity feedlots; & < 1,000 in Iowa) • Sep 1 On Feed: +1.5% yr/yr • Vs. +1.2% pre-report est. (+0.3%, +1.9%) • IA: -6.5% vs last year [1,000+ Head] • IA: -3.9% vs last year [<1,000 Head] • Aug Placements: +15.1% • Vs. +13.1% pre-report est. (+8.6%, 18.0%) • IA: +1.4% vs last year[1,000+ Head] • IA: -47.8% vs last year [<1,000 Head] • Aug Marketings: +17.6% • Vs. +17.5% pre-report est. (+12.3%, +18.1%) • IA: +16.9% vs last year [1,000+ Head] • IA: -30.4% vs last year [<1,000 Head] Data Source: USDA/NASS

  5. Historical and Projected Iowa Finishing Yearling Steer Returns (as of 10/17/16) (http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/estimated-returns/) * Net return is $/head and all other values are $/cwt. ** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain.

  6. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  7. Data Source: CME Group

  8. Data Source: USDA/AMS

  9. Data Source: USDA/NASS. Urner Barry pre-report estimates

  10. +3.4% (since mid-July) Last 4 weeks +8.3% +8.1% +5.6% -0.7% Data Source: USDA/NASS

  11. Data Source: USDA/AMS

  12. Historical and Projected Iowa Wean to Finish Returns (as of 10/17/16) (http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/estimated-returns/) * Net return and SEW price is $/head and all other values are $/carcass cwt. ** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain.

  13. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, modified

  14. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  15. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  17. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Current Soybean Futures 9.37 9.35 Source: CME Group, 10/20/2016

  20. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, modified

  21. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  22. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  23. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  25. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  26. Current Corn Futures 3.67 3.29 Source: CME Group, 10/20/2016

  27. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

  28. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

  29. 2017/18 Crop Margins

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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