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Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs. Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence. “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery. The role of skills and labour market intelligence.

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anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs

Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs

Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence

slide2
“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupery

The role of skills and labour market intelligence

sector wide intelligence
Sector wide intelligence
  • As a Sector Skills Council we are responsible for developing skills and labour market intelligence for the UK’s health sector
  • Outputs on our website
    • Sector Skills Assessments, UK and for each nation
    • Expert/Working papers
    • Themed research
    • Future oriented work
    • Online LMI tool
scenario planning why do it what is it
Scenario planning – why do it, what is it?

Why use this approach?

  • When the rules are changing quickly, past performance is not always an indicator of future (forecasts)
  • Great for bringing groups of people together and create a neutral space for discussion
  • Stories are more engaging and novel to describe strategic issues

What comes out?

  • Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future (not predictions)
  • Usually three perhaps four ‘versions’ of the future
  • Based on an analysis of drivers of change that are derived from the group
  • Be engaging, compelling and credible
  • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated
typical scenario planning process
Typical scenario planning process

Stage 1: defining the scope of the scenarios (focal question) and setting up the project

Stage 2: interviews with experts and witnesses

Stage 3: workshops with interested parties to

  • decide drivers of change
  • construction of the framework
  • selection and development of scenarios and their narratives

Stage 4: communication and application of the scenarios

Apply Skills for Health scenarios?

http://www.skillsforhealth.org.uk/planning-your-workforce-strategy/understand-your-future-labour-needs/future%11oriented-research

benefits of scenario development and utilisation
Benefits of Scenario development and utilisation
  • Early warnings of impending change
  • to spot early opportunities
  • Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes
  • Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider
  • challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them
  • look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks
benefits and outputs
Benefits and outputs
  • Link between demand for health care, performance of service and the skills and people needed make improvements
  • A collective approach with different institutions in a area - who might deliver services
  • Provides a direction of travel - priorities for skills development and skills utilisation
  • A very flexible approach
testimonies
Testimonies

On Scenario planning and development

“I attended one of Skills for Health’s scenario building workshops and I have to say it was one of the best sessions of this type I have attended. I have really learned a lot about the approach and how it can help me think creatively and comfortably about the future.”

Linda Shrewsbury, Head of Workforce, NHS Warwickshire

On complete perspectives approach

“The reports offer us a series of unique insights, including pinpointing disparities between local health service supply and population demand. By using this information to optimise our services for local demand we will increase overall productivity and service quality.”

Adrian Whittle, Head of HR and Organisational Development NHS Cambridgeshire and NHS Peterborough

research and intelligence services
Research and Intelligence Services
  • Service one – Intelligence on the current and future demand for services in your local area
  • Service two – Scenario planning
  • Service three – expert research on your skills and workforce issues
if you want to know more
If you want to know more
  • Contact Tess Green
www skillsforhealth org uk

www.skillsforhealth.org.uk

Email addresses of regional directors

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