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Wireless Nomadicity (FTTH 2014)

"Is the Future of Wireless Wired? FTTX in Support of Nomadic Broadband Users", presented at the New World of Applications workshop at the FTTH Conference, Stockholm, February 2014

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Wireless Nomadicity (FTTH 2014)

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  1. IS THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS WIRED? FTTX IN SUPPORT OF NOMADIC BROADBAND USERS Marc Jadoul (@mjadoul) Stockholm, 18 February 2014 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  2. The trend has been that mobile was winning. It's now won. Eric Schmidt Executive Chairman, Google Source: http://mashable.com/2013/12/30/eric-schmidt-predictions-2014 2 2 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  3. MOBILE TRAFFIC KEEPS GROWING, WITH VIDEO PLAYING AN EVER MORE PROMINENT ROLE 21,500 PB Other Games & Apps Video 5,326 PB Music Browsing 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Strategy Analytics, Handset Data Traffic (2013) 3 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  4. MASLOW’S HIERARCHY REDEFINED SELF- ACTUALIZATION achieving one’s full potential & creativity SELF-ESTEEM prestige & feeling of accomplishment BELONGINGNESS & LOVE intimate relationships, friends SAFETY security, stability, safety PSYCHOLOGICAL food, water, shelter, warmth, … Source: http://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html 4 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  5. NEW USAGE PATTERNS CHALLENGE MOBILE NETWORKS 63% OF USERS SAY IT’S IMPORTANT TO BE CONNECTED AT ALL TIMES VERY IMPORTANT 26% OF 4G USERS CHECK SOCIAL MEDIA MORE THAN 10X A DAY THE INTERNET EVERY DAY 62% OF USERS SAY MOBILE DATA SPEEDS ARE 25% OF 4G USERS SPEND 3 OR MORE HOURS A DAY ON 58% OF USERS SAY ALWAYS-ON CONNECTIVITY IS IMPORTANT FOR THEIR SOCIAL LIVES 26% OF 4G USERS DOWNLOAD, UPLOAD, AND STREAM VIDEOS Sources: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey (2012), 4GEE Mobile Living Index & Orange Exposure (2013) 5 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  6. DEMAND FOR (DENSE) WIRELESS ACCESS IN PUBLIC PLACES IS RISING Sports stadium Train/bus station Airport Office Hospital Shopping mall Convention center High street School Hotel Supermarket Retail shop Multi Dweller Units House 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Average Mb/s per 10m2 Source: Ruckus Wireless (2012) 6 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  7. EVEN WITHIN THE HOME, MOBILE MULTIMEDIA IS BECOMING PERVASIVE 100% 90% 80% % OF USE INDOORS 100% 70% 90% 60% 80% 50% 70% 40% iPad iPhone Blackberry 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Outdoor mobile data usage Indoor mobile data usage Source: Mobile Experts (2012), GigaOM (2012) 7 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  8. SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS TEND TO PLAY DIFFERENT ROLES Living room Living room Library Bedroom Bedroom 72% 67% School 65% 20% 63% In stores 22% Kitchen Other Kitchen 53% 8% 34% 40% School 10% Where do you access the internet on your SMARTPHONE ? Where do you access the internet on your TABLET? Home office Library 31% Home office Work 58% 12% 26% Other 14% Friend’s house 74% Car 60% Work 20% While traveling 68% Outdoors 26% 65% While traveling 48% Restaurant Friend’s house 28% 51% Public trarnsport 74% 18% Car 30% 49% 15% 75% 9% Outdoors Restaurant Public transport Daily commute Daily commute In stores Source: Forrester Research (2013) 8 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  9. NEED FOR DIFFERENT ‘MIXES’ OF MOBILITY, CAPACITY AND COVERAGE Full mobility Nomadic usage Mainly low bandwidth services Often high bandwidth services Macro coverage Small cells & Wi-Fi 9 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  10. NOMADIC VIDEO IS SOARING WITH A 73% CAGR 200,000 Home video users (premium content) 180,000 160,000 140,000 Nomadic video users (premium content) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Mobile video users (premium content) 40,000 20,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: The NPD Group (US, 2011) 10 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  11. NOMADIC BROADBAND ROLLOUT OPPORTUNITIES 11 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  12. DEFINING THE IDEAL NETWORK FOR WIRELESS NOMADS a wireless HetNetmixing 3G/4G macro cells, small cells and Wi-Fi automatic network discovery, selection and authentication, with seamless handover between cellular and Wi-Fi access a high-capacity, fiber-based mobile backhaul and transport network 12 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  13. FIBER+WIRELESS ULTRA-BROADBAND DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS Small Cell Backhaul Fiber + Copper/Cable to the Homespot/Enterprise Hotspot Fiber to the Streetspot 13 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  14. TWDM PON … CURRENT FTTX TECHNOLOGIES CAN FULFILL GROWING BACKHAUL CAPACITY NEEDS (~40 Gb/s) 4,000 Highest capacity site (3 collocated operators) Required downstream MBH capacity (Mb/s) Highest capacity site (1 operator) Capacity site (1 operator) Coverage site (1 operator) Public access small cell (1 operator) 3,500 3,000 GPON 2,500 2,000 1,500 G.fast (vectoring) 1,000 500 VDSL2 (vectoring) 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: Heavy Reading (2013), Alcatel-Lucent — data speeds may depend on loop and noise conditions 14 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  15. FTTX TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE BACKHAUL LEADS TO FASTER NETWORK MONETIZATION MONTHLY COST PER MBPS BY TECHNOLOGY T1/E1/DS3 copper Microwave radio Ethernet copper/fiber LOWER OPEX MBH WHOLESALE REVENUES POWERING CLOCK SYNC BANDWIDTH PON P2P VDSL BONDING RESIDENTIAL ULTRA-BB UBIQUITOUSLY AVAILABLE Sources: ABI Research (Western-Europe, 2013), Alcatel-Lucent 15 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

  16. CONCLUSION: WIRELESS AND WIRELINE ARE THE YIN AND YANG OF BROADBAND GROWTH WIRELESS DEVICES & APPS WIRELINE OFFLOAD & BACKHAUL 16 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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