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FTTH's Second Decade Begins: Where We Are, Where We Are Going. North American FTTH: 10 Year Report Card . Presented by: Michael C. Render. Has FTTH Had An Impact?. Economy. Quality of User Experience. New Technology. Has FTTH Become A Household Name?. Consumer Recognition.

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slide1

FTTH's Second Decade Begins:

Where We Are, Where We Are Going

North American FTTH: 10 Year Report Card

Presented by:

Michael C. Render

slide2

Has FTTH Had An Impact?

Economy

Quality of User Experience

New Technology

slide5

Has FTTH Deployment Grown? Will It Continue?

Greenfield Construction

Existing Overbuilds

slide6

“Has FTTH Had An Impact?”….

….Economy (Grade: A)

how would you best describe the organization you work for
How would you best describe the organization you work for?

Select one:

  • RBOC
  • ILEC
  • CLEC
  • MSO
  • Municipal government
  • State or regional government
  • Real Estate Developer/Integrator
  • End-user business
  • Consultant
  • Equipment vendor
  • Contractor
billions in home based business impact
Billions In Home Based Business Impact
  • Average revenue from home- based businesses in FTTH homes is $59,780
  • Revenue for FTTH home-based businesses is $46.7 Billion
  • Revenue estimated to be related to FTTH performance is $11.1 Billion *
  • * 11% said their business would not be possible without FTTH, and 64% said it is more efficient

FTTH Enhanced Home -

Based Business Reported

billions in environmental savings
Billions In Environmental Savings

Days worked from home increased

1 day per month on average:

  • 1 day per month average (Nearly 12% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 9 days more)
  • US Carbon Emissions reduced by .06% (5.5% of citizens * 3% * 40%)
  • FTTH also lowers energy use, road maintenance, accidents, unproductive hours…

Extra Days From Home Reported

slide11

“Has FTTH Had An Impact?”…

…Quality of User Experience (Grade: A+)

slide12

Much Higher Satisfaction With Internet Aspects

  • FTTH Versus Cable Modem

Reliability – service uptime

Broadband speed

Installation process

Consistency of speed

Provider’s customer service

12

slide13

Much Higher Satisfaction With Television Aspects

  • FTTH Versus Cable

Quality of HD picture

Standard television

Number of HD channels

VOD

13

slide16

Far Fewer Modem Reboots Reported Per Month

FTTH

DSL

FTTN

Cable modem

Wireless

16

slide17

Users Clearly Understand Key Advantages Of FTTH

Open End Responses

Speed/ faster/ better Internet/ bandwidth

Picture clarity/ video clarity

Reliability/ consistency/ no hassles

Bundle of several services on one bill

Cost

Fewer weather disruptions

Quality

Number of channels/ entertainment choice

Better customer service

General positives - pleased to have it

DVR

Convenience

Better than previous cable company

Video-on-demand/ movie downloads

No satellite dish

Better technology/ up-to-date

Lines are buried/ No overhead

Can run two computers at once

Easy installation

Other

17

slide18

“Has FTTH Had An Impact?”…

…New Technology (Grade: C)

slide19

Some Increased Use Of Advanced Internet Applications

  • Among FTTH Users Under Age 40 By Year

Shop online

Play single player games

Upload large files

Download or stream video to computer

Play multi player games

Upload video content to Internet

Use VOIP for audio

Use two-way video conferencing

Transfer files for remote offsite storage

Download or stream video to television set

Use remote software / “cloud computing”

Use remote monitoring camera video

Participate in a virtual world

19

slide20

There Is Interest In Futuristic Services

Current FTTH Users Under Age 40

Business video conferencing

Very large HDD with super resolution

Advanced websites/ full video

Remote home and pet monitoring

Online face-to-face healthcare

Advanced online shopping

One device for TV, Internet, & phone

Two-way video calling

Advanced online college

3D TV

20

slide21

There Is Interest In Futuristic Services

Current FTTH Users Age 55+

Online face-to-face healthcare

Very large HDD with super resolution

One device for TV, Internet, & phone

Advanced online shopping

Two-way video calling

Remote home and pet monitoring

Advanced websites/ full video

Business video conferencing

3D TV

Advanced online college

21

slide23

“Has FTTH Become A Household Name?”…

…Consumer Recognition (Grade: C)

slide25

Yet When Described, Users Understand The Importance Of FTTH In New Home Development

Non FTTH Users:

Internet from a direct fiber optic line

Green space / walking, jogging

24 hour neighborhood patrol

Community pool / park

Fitness center / Clubhouse

Current FTTH Users:

Internet from a direct fiber optic line

Green space / walking, jogging

24 hour neighborhood patrol

Community pool / park

Fitness center / Clubhouse

25

slide29

Total U.S. Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable

Total North American Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable

slide30

But There Is Competition For Telecom Capex

Wireline

Wireless

DSL broadband speeds are falling far behind the competition. Telcos are starting to lose subscribers and need an FTTH update. This is reaching severe levels in some areas, such as eastern Canada.

Smartphone penetration is expected to increase from 15% to 70% in just three years with the increasing use of higher bandwidth applications. Some see this as an impending crisis.

slide31

Other Investment Offers Opportunities

National public investment

Municipal public investment

Private investment

slide32

“Has FTTH Deployment Grown?”…

…Greenfield Construction (Grade: B-)

…Existing Overbuilds (Grade: A-)

slide35

FTTH Penetration Has Grown

Cumulative – United States

slide37

FTTH Internet Use Has Steadily Grown

  • Broadband Type Primarily Used At Home
  • USA By Year
slide39

FTTH Homes Passed

Annual Change – North America

slide40

FTTH Homes Connected

Annual Change – North America

slide43

Likelihood Of Overbuilds Still Look Good In Many Sectors

Adding FTTH: Current Non RBOC FTTH Providers

Very unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

All customers have FTTH

43

slide44

Telecom Video Was An Early Driver

FTTH Video Homes ConnectedCumulative – North America

slide45

Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver

Net Broadband Adds 2009

MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3)

Verizon (DSL, FTTH)

Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN)

Source: Leichtman Research

45

slide46

Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver

Net Broadband Adds First Half 2010

MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3)

Verizon (DSL, FTTH)

Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN)

Source: Leichtman Market Research

46

slide47
How many additional North American homes do you expect to be passed by FTTH or FTTB in next 5 years (by the end of 2015)?

Select one:

  • 3 million or less
  • 6 million
  • 9 million
  • 12 million
  • 15 million or more
slide48

North American FTTH Will Begin A New Mild Increase

- With More Explosive Growth Possible

Key:

Yellow – stable

Light green – moderate growth

Dark green – strong growth

Note: Much of the RBOC decline has already occurred.

slide52

For a replay of this Webinar, and for upcoming webinar events, don’t forget to check out our municipal broadband webinar site at www.Muniwebinar.com

Broadband Properties Magazine homepage: www.bbpmag.com

Also at Broadband Properties Magazine: www.munibroadband.com

For the complete report of FTTH deployment in our October issue,

featuring Mike Render’s data:

www.bbpmag.com/2010mags/oct10/BBP_Oct10_FTTHMarketReport.pdf

Contact Mike Render at mrender@rvallc.com

Or visit www.RVALLC.com