Ohio GRF Tax Revenue FY10-13 Overview Dr. Howard Fleeter Education Tax Policy Institute OSBA Capital Conference November 16, 2011
GRF Tax Revenues, FY03-FY11 Source: OBM
Effects of the Recession on GRF Tax Revenues • The previous graph showed that Ohio’s GRF tax revenues fell by nearly $3.2 million from FY08 to FY10 as a result of the recession. • FY10 tax revenues were less than FY03 tax revenues. • GRF tax revenues in FY11 increased by nearly $1.5 billion from FY10, but were still less than the tax revenues of FY04.
Actual and Estimated FY10 GRF Tax Revenues Source: OBM July 2010 Monthly Financial Report
Actual and Estimated FY11 GRF Tax Revenues Source: OBM July 2011 Monthly Financial Report
Actual and Estimated FY10 & FY11 Commercial Activity Tax (CAT) Revenues Source: OBM July 2011 Monthly Financial Report
OBM Estimated FY12 & FY13 GRF Tax Revenues Source: Tim Keen OBM HB 153 Conference Committee Testimony, June 15, 2011
FY12-13 Tax Revenue Estimates • FY12 GRF tax revenues are forecast to increase by $926 million from FY11 levels. • However, FY12 tax revenue estimates are still below FY05 levels. • FY13 GRF tax revenues are forecast to increase by an additional $1.7 billion from FY12 levels. • The FY13 GRF tax revenue estimate of $20.339 billion is higher than any prior year GRF tax revenues.
Actual and Estimated GRF Tax Revenues FY03-FY13 Source: OBM
Estimated Baseline Changes to FY12 & FY13 GRF Tax Revenues Source: FY12-13 Executive Budget - Section B “Economic Forecast” and calculations by Driscoll & Fleeter
Estimated Policy Changes to FY12 & FY13 GRF Tax Revenues Source: FY12-13 Executive Budget - Section B “Economic Forecast” and calculations by Driscoll & Fleeter
Baseline GRF Tax Revenue Changes vs. Policy Change Tax Revenue Changes • In FY12, “baseline” growth in GRF taxes is estimated to comprise only $56 million (6%) of total forecast revenue growth of $926 million from FY11. • GRF tax revenue growth resulting from tax policy changes is responsible for the remaining $870 million in estimated growth. • In FY13, baseline revenue growth is responsible for $1,027 million (60%) of estimated $1.707 billion in growth from FY12. • FY13 baseline GRF tax revenues (not including tax revenues from policy changes) are lower than FY05 GRF tax revenues.
Actual FY03-FY11GRF Tax Revenues & Estimated FY12-FY13 Baseline Taxes Source: OBM, FY12-13 Budget Section B “Economic Forecast” and Calculations by Driscoll & Fleeter
HB 153 K-12 Education Appropriations FY11-FY13 Source: HB 153 Lines 136725 through 136827 for FY12-13, Budget Blue Book for FY11
FY12-13 K-12 Education Funding • While Foundation funding increase from FY11 to FY12 and again in FY13, total state funding for K-12 education falls from $9.35 billion in FY11 to $8.911 billion in FY13. • The reason for the decrease in overall state funding ($679 million over the biennium) is the reduction in TPP and PUTTP replacement payments. • When $914 million of lost SFSF stimulus funding is included, total reductions in general purpose education funding is $1.593 billion over the biennium. • Reductions in other Federal funds, including non-SFSF stimulus, account for an additional $1.225 billion, bringing the total reduction in K1-2 funding over the biennium to $2.818 billion from FY11 levels.
Another View of HB 153 K-12 Education Appropriations Source: Calculations by Driscoll & Fleeter