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Greenhouse Effect*. Two transparent windows: Solar radiation – visible (0.3-0.8 m m) Earth radiation – infrared (7-15 m m) Major infrared absorbers: CH 4 , Natural Gas N 2 O, Nitrous Oxide O 3 , Ozone CO 2 , Carbon Dioxide H 2 O, Water. CH 4. N 2 O. O 2 ,O 3. CO 2. H 2 O.

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Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse Effect*

Two transparent windows:

  • Solar radiation – visible (0.3-0.8 mm)

  • Earth radiation – infrared (7-15 mm)

    Major infrared absorbers:

  • CH4, Natural Gas

  • N2O, Nitrous Oxide

  • O3, Ozone

  • CO2, Carbon Dioxide

  • H2O, Water

CH4

N2O

O2,O3

CO2

H2O

* Piexoto & Oort

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Greenhouse effect

IPCC – AR5 – Sept. 2013

Executive Summary

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2011 mauna loa co 2
2011 Mauna Loa CO2

Mauna Loa Monthly Mean CO2 in parts per million (ppm).

August 2013: 395.15 ppm

August 2012: 392.41 ppm

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

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Last 1000 years of co 2
Last 1000 years of CO2

400ppm

280 ppm

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Global mean surface air temperature to 2012
Global Mean Surface Air Temperature to 2012

The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures.

1.)The last decade was the hottest ever recorded.

2.)2010 is the hottest year since records have been kept.

3.) The red line shows the 5-year average: Long-term trends are more apparent. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)

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J hansen et al science 308 1431 2005
J. Hansen et al.,Science 308, 1431, 2005.

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Greenhouse effect
The Millennial Temperature RecordJones, et al – Climatic Research Unithttp://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/milltemp/

1683

Medieval Warm Period

Mini Ice Age

  • Proxies: Different choices of Northern Hemisphere proxies (trees, ice cores, corals, lake & marine sediments, and historical documents)

  • Natural forcing from sun and volcanoes dominate the pre-1850 record and only human activities appear to adequately explain the rise in temperature during the 20th century.

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Global mean sea level
Global Mean Sea Level

Andrew: There’s unprecedented flooding. Large parts of the country are underwater. The death toll is near half a million and rising. And it’s not just Bangladesh… There are people out there saying this is the end.

Gabriel: The end of what?

Male, Maldives Capital

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Greenhouse effect

Arctic Sea Ice AREA – September 29, 2013

Positive Feedback from increased absorption of solar energy by black water. Tipping point?

2007 IPCC projected ice free summers by mid-century

2012projections now as early as 2020

Open exploration for natural resources.

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Greenland arctic sea ice volume anomaly ice melt may 31 2011
Greenland Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly:Ice Melt May 31, 2011

Monthly anomaly relative to 1979-2010

Trend: -2.8 ± 1.0 in thousands of km3/decade.

Extensive thinning of margins (-1.5m/yr red, +1.5m/yr blue)

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Climate change an impacts summary
Climate Change: An Impacts Summary

  • Open Arctic water in summer absorbs far more solar energy than when ice-covered. [Positive feedback]

  • Sea Level Rise 1.) Melting ice sheets in Greenland, Antarctica 2.) Expanding water volume

  • Snow pack in Rocky Mountains, Himalayan Mountains  summer drought in downstream areas.

  • Thresholds, when crossed, make rapid transitions:

    • Fresh water melting into the North Atlantic slows the Gulf Stream

    • Ocean surface temperature above 27oC  increased hurricane severity.

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Observed ghg emissions and emission scenarios
Observed GHG Emissions and Emission Scenarios

Each Emissions Scenario is a guess about our future carbon production

Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm

4.0-6.1°C

2.6-3.7°C

2.0-3.0°C

1.3-1.9°C


Greenhouse effect

Geoengineering

Effectiveness

vs.

Affordability

Timeliness

[Fast/Slow]

Safety

[Low/Medium/High

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Geological carbon sequestration
Geological Carbon Sequestration

  • John Rupp, Indiana Geological Survey, Bloomington

  • Supercritical fluid above 70 bar

  • Indiana: ¼ GT/year CO2

  • Potential Indiana sites:

    • Oil/natural gas formations

      • Secondary oil/gas recovery

      • Relatively small volumes

    • Coal seams

      • Surface chemistry

      • Relatively small volumes

    • Saline aquifers (25-60 GT)

      • Potentially large volumes

      • Pore size decrease with depth

      • High pressure fracture

      • Permeability vs. Porosity

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Feedback in climate or why we need models
Feedback in Climate[Or why we need models]

T  T

Positive feedback example:

A warmer surface temperature reduces the size of the highly reflective polar ice fields. The less reflective soil or open ocean absorbs more solar radiation increasing the surface temperature even further.

Negative feedback example: T  T

A warmer surface temperature evaporates additional water forming more cloud. The cloud layer reflects incoming solar energy, reducing the surface temperature.

 Climate Models

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