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IRENA Membership

Prospects for the African Power Sector Asami Miketa International Energy Workshop, June 19-21, 2012 Cape Town, South Africa. IRENA Membership. (96countires). (62 more countries). Status 13. June, 2012. Mandate.

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IRENA Membership

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  1. Prospects for the African Power SectorAsami MiketaInternational Energy Workshop, June 19-21, 2012Cape Town, South Africa

  2. IRENA Membership (96countires) (62 more countries) Status 13. June, 2012

  3. Mandate • Promote the use of renewable energy to meet increasing global energy needs in the context of Sustainable Development • Energy security • Decentralized access to energy • Job creation and economic growth • Negative health impacts of fossil fuels and traditional biomass • Reducing GHG emissions • Renewable energy sources supported: • Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind

  4. Activities • Synthesising knowledge • Potential assessment (global resource mapping) • Renewable statistics and indicators • Technology briefs • Renewable technology cost assessment • Energy planning • Economic and technical assessment of renewable technology deployment in an energy system • Capacity building • Promotion of dialogue for renewable deployment • Renewable readiness assessment • Sectoral renewable deployment roadmap • UN’s Sustainable Energy for All

  5. Activities • Policy database and analysis • Technology development and transfer • Technology standardization • Patent database • Project development support • Education and training support • Abu Dhabi Fund for Development

  6. Challenges in African power sector Access to Electricity

  7. Challenges in African power sectorReliability of power supply Source: JRC

  8. Opportunities offered by renewable technologies • Abundant resource potential for grid-connected system • Cost-competitive off-grid system • Flexible mini-gird system Universal access in 2035 1670 TWh 1100 kWh per person Power generation in 2008 620 TWh 616 kWh per person

  9. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project • Renewable resource potential • Cost development • Differentiated roles of renewable technologies for centralized and decentralized electricity supply  used as inputs for economic optimization tools SAPP model / WAPP model  inputs into priority investment decision / policy analysis

  10. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials 620 TWh generation 150 GW capacity (2010) Geothermal 88 TWh/yr (7-15 GW) Wind* 3800 TWh/yr (1750 GW) Concentrated Solar Power* 4720 TWh/yr (2150 GW) Solar Photovoltaic* 6600 TWh/yr (2700 GW) Hydro 1850 TWh/yr (400 GW) *land availability adjusted North West Central East South Map: BMU, 2009 TWh

  11. In 2010, total installed capacity 1 GW Technical potential 1750 GW • Egypt 7GW by 2020 • Morocco 2GW by 2020 • South Africa 8.4 GW by 2030 Investment costs Europe: 1,850-2,100 USD/kW India/China: 1,300-1,450 USD/kW Assumptions for Africa 2010: 2,000 USD/kW 2030: 1,240-1,400 USD/kW Wind

  12. In 2010, total installed capacity 64 MW CSP and 7.5 MW Solar PV (utility scale) Technical potential: 2150 GW (CSP) and 2750 GW (Solar PV) Solar PV World solar market Investment cost in Europe: 3,600-5,000 USD/kW in 2010 2,500 USD/kW in 2012 Assumptions for Africa: SPV 2010: 3,500 USD/kW 2030: 2,200-2,500 USD/kW

  13. CSP: 2150 GW technical potential • Sudan 250 MW, South Africa 100 MW • DESERTEC 100 GW by 2050 (400MW CSP and 100 MW SPV in Morocco in 2012) Solar CSP Parabolic trough collectors USD 4600 /kW 6 hr Storage plus 2500-5200 /kW Solar tower USD 6300-7500 /kW 15 hr Storage plus 3000/kW Assumptions for Africa: CSP no storage 2010: 4500 USD/kW 2030: 2700-3000 USD/kW With storage 2010: 11000 USD 2030: 6200-7300 USD

  14. 24GW installed in 2010 • Technical potential: 400GW • Economic potential: 200GW • DRC: Inga III (5GW), Grand Inga Dam (39GW) • Ethiopia: Millennium Hydropower project (5.25GW) Large Hydro

  15. LCOE: West Africa Crude oil price: 100 USD/bbl HFO 12.9 USD/GJ, Gas domestic and imported 8.5 and 11 USD/GJ, Coal domestic and imported 2 and 3 USD/GJ

  16. Heavy industry 15 USD/MWh (7% losses) • Urban 50 USD/MWh(15% losses) • Rural 100 USD/MWh (20% losses) LCOE including TD costs to rural area (120-150 $/MWh additional to LCOE of technologies) T&D costs

  17. Assumptions for Africa in 2030 SPV: 2,600-2,900 USD/kW SPV+battery: 3,600-4,100 USD/kW Small hydro: 3,300-3,600 USD/kW Decentralized Options • Diesel generator (1,070 USD/kW) • Solar PV (5,000 USD/kW) • Solar PV with buttery (7,000 USD/kW) • Small hydro (4,000 USD/kW) Source: JRC

  18. Decentralized Options LCOE for decentralized options VS grid connected options

  19. 16% RE with 15% hydro → 35% RE with 19% hydro SAPP model

  20. 22% RE all hydro in 2010 → 53% RE with 33% hydro WAPP model

  21. IRENA’s contributions to the modeling community • Improve the representation of renewable energy in modeling/scenario work • Narrow the data gasps • Bring the insights from the community to the attention of the decision makers You are invited to the IRENA’s special modeling session today at 17:30

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