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Effects of climate change on the North sea coastal zone. NAG-Coast. Background An increasing knowledge on expected scenarios for sea level change , including melting of glaciers and ice caps

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effects of climate change on the north sea coastal zone nag coast
Effects of climatechangeon the North seacoastal zone.NAG-Coast
  • Background
    • An increasingknowledge on expected scenarios for sealevelchange, including melting of glaciers and icecaps
    • A betterunderstanding of the expected future wheatherconditions – especially storm patterns and frequencies, wavehigths, etc.
    • A lackinclusion of geology and slowearthmovements
    • A lack of a harmonisedcompilation of coastalvulnerability in a geologicsence (erosion, subsidence, flooding, progadation etc.)

A need to act in an uncertainworld

the future of ice sheets and sea level rise

The future of ice sheets and sea-level rise

David Vaughan and the

ice2sea Consortium

possible future sea level rise
Possible future sea-level rise?

Pfeffer “plausible limit”

Vermeer and Rahmsdorf, 2009

Deltacommisee upper

IPCC AR4

Upper

Continuation of 1870-present = IPCC AR4 lower

regional sea level rise gravity component
Regional sea-level rise (Gravity component)
  • Relative sea-level rise in 2100 (upper bound scenario)
local impact of the different sources
Local impact of the differentsources

Antarctica

Thermal+circulation

High

Mid

Greenland

Isostasy

High

Mid

Glaciers

High

Mid

Metres by 2100

Ice masses

Ocean & land

recent observed global sea level rise
Recent observed global sea-level rise

3.2 mm/year

2.0 mm/year

Satellites

0.8 mm/year

Tide gauges

Source – Steve Nerem

contributions the earth movements
Contributions the earthmovements
  • Tectonicuplift or subsidens
  • Uplift due to erosion – subsidens due to deposition
  • Isostaticadjustment due to loading-unloading (Ice-cover)

Difficult - but may bo not impossible – seperatedifferentisostatic processes.

Long time series based on coastlines is needed as the local true eustaticchangesneed to beisolatedfirst

the kattegat c urve
The Kattegat Curve

cm

Calenderyear

establishment of regional reference level
Establishment of regional reference level
  • Uses tide gauges outside the localtectonic zone (ca. 1850-2009)
    • UseHirthals and Varberg – parallel to the isobase line
    • And Smøgen (Gothenburg) and Hornbæk perpendicular to isobase line
  • Then a plane canbedefined and then a match in the Læsø eustaticcurvecanbeobtained and adjusted
  • Obtained a regional eustaticcurve for 900 years
defining local recent movement
Defininglocal recent movement
  • Time gauge curvescannowbecompared to eachother and adjusted for the regional isotsticmovements.
  • Then the localisostaticmovement (to day= average for 150 years) canbedefined
  • The geologicalknowlegde is used in the explanation of variation
  • A new isostaticmap of ongoingmovementscanbeestablished
landrise mm yr determined on the basis of 26 long term tide gauges and the asl kattegat curve
Landrise (mm/yr) determined on the basis of 26 long term tide gauges and the ASL Kattegat Curve
map of coastal deposits
Map of coastaldeposits

Weichseliantill

Hill island

Meltwaterplain

results and problems

Results and problems

The Kattegat curve is a coherentASL-curve of the last 900 yearsshowing a Medievalmaximumaround AD 1200, a relative Little Ice Age low-stand by ≈40 cm in the period 1250 and 1750, and cyclic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations by ≈10 cm with tops around 1790, 1860, 1920-50 and at the present.

The ASL-curve shows a larger general SL-risethannormallyfound. However, ”the late Cenozoic isostatic system” is a normallyunconsidered land-rise due to precedingbedrock erosion of western Scandinavia as well as ≈1.5-2 km sediment-load of the central North Sea during the Plio-Pleisto-Holocene. If unrecognised, thiseffectwouldlead to underestimation of the ASL-riseduring the lateHolocene.

Similar erosion/sedimentation induced isostatic effectsareactivearound the British Isles, Greenland, and the Atlantic coast of North America.