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Epidemic Dynamics Simulation Model for Disease Outbreak Analysis

Explore the spread of epidemics using the SIR model with variable scenarios like infection duration and contact rate. Adjust parameters to simulate containment strategies. Understand how epidemics evolve over time.

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Epidemic Dynamics Simulation Model for Disease Outbreak Analysis

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  1. Epidemics Pedro R. Andrade Gilberto Camara São José dos Campos, 2016

  2. Epidemic “In epidemiology, an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.”

  3. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  4. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  5. Source: Viboud and Chowell (NIH)

  6. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model)

  7. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model) Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

  8. Epidemic dynamics (SIR model) Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people (but can only infect the susceptible ones) 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

  9. Some scenarios Duration of the infection: 2, 4, 8 weeks Contacts that cause infection: 50%, 25%, 12.5% If the number of contacts is cut by half when the infections reach 2000 or 1000 due to an educational campaign.

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