Climate Change: The Move to Action

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 March 11, 2014

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • Something I am playing with • http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ • Assignment • Emailed • Posted Politics of Dismissal Entry Uncertainty Description Model

3. Key references and websites • Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends. • International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/ works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond • The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link) • This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth • This lecture is a little dated … I will point out how. • Energy use is changing enormously from year to year • Only constant is  keeps going up  fossil fuels dominate

4. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

5. Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Validation Consequences Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Prediction Earth Will Warm Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Attribution Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels

6. Response: Think about this for a minute • What are the responses that make sense? • Regulation • Life time responsibility for product – the coke can • Improve use of current resources – efficiency • Integrate development and climate change - adaptation • What might motivate those responses? • Potential costs • Make the cost right … do not deny “use” • Cost of inefficiency • Social justice issues • What might hinder those responses? • Cost – benefit • Lack of flexibility • Social justice issues • Economy versus environment

7. Mainstream approach – targets and timetables From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

8. Emissions are growing faster than expected Source: Manning et al. 2010 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

9. Where do emissions come from? People Engage in economic activity that Uses energy from Carbon emitting generation P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Population GDP per capita Energy intensity of the economy Carbon intensity of energy Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

10. What tools do we have to reduce emissions? Factor Lever Approach to Policy P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Population management Limit generation of wealth Do same or more with less energy Generate energy with less emissions Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity Less people Smaller economy Increase efficiency Switch energy sources Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE GDP Technology From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

11. So why has energy consumption increased so much? • GDP/capita is considered the “societal success” • Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)

12. Pielke Jr. argues • The need for technology to make solutions possible. • Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative • Must go • From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap • To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

13. Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

14. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

15. Update from IEA • CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013 • 1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels • 2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels • Emissions by category • 83% energy production • 8% agricultural • 6% industrial processes • 3% waste

16. 2011 Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions 13 111 Megaton oil equivalent Other 18% Portion of Energy Production Coal 29% Gas 21% Oil 32% Gas 20% Portion of CO2 Emission Oil 35% 1% Coal 44% Source: International Energy Agency CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption 2013

17. Context: Growth

18. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

19. World Carbon Emissions • CO2 emissions arise from: • Cement production (~5 %) • Deforestation (~20 %) • Fossil fuel use (~75 %) 75%

20. CO2 source: Deforestation • Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: • It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions • It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial times. GtC Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere

21. Context: Energy and Climate Change • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

22. Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

23. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

24. In what forms do we consume energy? • Fossil fuels: • Coal • Oil • Natural gas • Other: • Nuclear • Hydro • Renewables (mostly biomass) • ‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

25. Energy sources: Coal • Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels • Accounts for ~29% of world CO2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)

26. Energy sources: Oil • Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per unit energy. • Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2 emissions. • Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern

27. Energy sources: Natural gas • Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years Methane Leakage and Fracking

28. Trend of fossil fuel use • In ‘business-as-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

29. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

30. Emissions from economic sectors • Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture) • Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc. • Transportation: cars, planes, ships US energy use by sector EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

31. U.S. energy consumption by sector Transportation sector • Sector with fastest growing CO2 emissions in US • Dominated by oil and road transport • Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

32. U.S. energy consumption by sector Buildings sector • Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.) • Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating • Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

33. U.S. energy consumption by sector Industrial sector • Includes mining, refining, factories, etc. • The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed. • Also includes agriculture… U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

34. Agriculture: A different slice

35. Agriculture • Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries. • Half of used energy and direct CO2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) • BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change. • Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

36. Agriculture: Livestock • 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: • “The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” • Important economic sector: • Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor) • Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production • 33 % of arable land for feed production

37. Agriculture: Livestock • Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation! • 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. • Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %. • Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) • Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

38. Agriculture: Livestock • Responsible for ~18 % of CO2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N2O and CH4)  Same share as entire US! • 9 % of world CO2 emissions • Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer • Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) • 37 % of world CH4 emissions • Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) • Animal manure • 65 % of N2O • Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N2O emission

39. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

40. World CO2 emissions by fuel and end use Energy consumption by end use • The three main end uses of fossil fuel are: • Electric power plants (~40 % of CO2 emissions) • Transportation (~23 % of CO2 emissions) • Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO2 emissions) • So ~40 % CO2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels Socolow and Pacala , 2006

41. Energy consumption by end use: Electricity • Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels • One third from hydro and nuclear power

42. Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006 Cost of Electricity Cost of electricity in US in 2002 Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009 • Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US! • Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive What is changing in this balance ?

43. Direct Fuel Use Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use • ‘Direct fuel use’: • Transportation (oil) • Heating in buildings • Industrial processes • Dominated by oil • No real alternatives for transportation fuels • Biofuels do not mitigate CO2 emission • Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars? Pacala and Socolow, 2006

44. Today • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO2 emissions: where do they come from? • Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

45. Major External Costs • Public Health • National Security • Environment • Air quality – warming tension

46. Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming) • Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by: • Scattering radiation • Seeding clouds • Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate…

47. Summary Points: U.S. Energy

48. Energy Appendix • Original Material from Jasper Kok

49. CO2 source: Cement Production • Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO3). • For production of cement: CaCO3 CaO + CO2 • Production of cement emits CO2 for two reasons: • CO2 emitted directly • Production process takes place at high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy. • Accounts for ~5 % of CO2 emissions worldwide

50. CO2 source: Deforestation • Massive deforestation occurred • In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy) • In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood. • When forests are cut down, CO2 is released from: • Carbon in trees, plants, etc. (conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction) • Carbon in the soil (roots, humus) • Forests absorb “excess” CO2, since elevated CO2 stimulates growth • Removal of forests removes this natural buffer against climate change