Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013
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Weather Briefing Saturday, 17 August 2013. Henry Fuelberg Nick Heath Sean Freeman & SEAC4RS MET Team. Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave. Ending at 6:45 AM CDT. Surface Analysis: 1 PM CDT Today.

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Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Weather BriefingSaturday, 17 August 2013

Henry Fuelberg

Nick Heath

Sean Freeman &

SEAC4RS MET Team


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Cooler, drier air being advected into our region behind last night’s shortwave

Ending at 6:45 AM CDT





Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Models are in better agreement on landfall over N. Mexico and S. Texas. Locally, this will impact our rain chances Monday and Tuesday



Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

500 disturbancemb Flow: Sunday - Wednesday


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

GFS disturbanceTropopause pressure at 1PM CDT Monday


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Southeast Chemistry disturbance


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

2 m Temperature anomalies valid 7 PM CDT last night – cold an anomalous pattern over eastern CONUS


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Monday maximum temperatures an anomalous pattern over eastern CONUS



Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Forecasted Max Temperatures lingers around

Wednesday

Friday


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

  • Southeast Chemistry lingers around

  • Troughing, scattered convection, and cloud cover will keep temps cooler on Monday

  • East Coast trough weakens by Wednesday, leading to higher surface temperatures.

  • Cannot forecast convection that far an advance…however, synoptic conditions indicate a little more active than climo based on high precipitable water values


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

NAM and Fires lingers around


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Precip lingers around: Sunday - Wednesday


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

200 lingers aroundmb Streamlines: 1 PM CDT Monday

NCAR GFS


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Dreamland lingers around Friday 500 mb


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Dreamland lingers around Friday max temp


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

Dreamland lingers around Friday precip


Weather briefing saturday 17 august 2013

  • TO and Landing for Monday lingers around

  • NE winds ~15 kt in the morning, veering SE in the afternoon

  • Good chance (30-40%) of precip in the morning, increasing more in the afternoon

  • Depends on the track/timing of the tropical wave