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Fifth Forward Capacity Auction Transmission Security Analysis Requirements

Fifth Forward Capacity Auction Transmission Security Analysis Requirements. Reliability Committee Meeting January 18, 2011 Marianne Perben. Purpose of the Discussion.

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Fifth Forward Capacity Auction Transmission Security Analysis Requirements

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  1. Fifth Forward Capacity Auction Transmission Security Analysis Requirements Reliability Committee Meeting January 18, 2011 Marianne Perben

  2. Purpose of the Discussion • Review the assumptions, methodology and Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) requirements for the 2014-2015 Capacity Commitment Period (FCA #5) • Based on the same methodology that was used for FCA #4 • Details available at http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/relblty_comm/relblty/mtrls/2010/mar172010/index.html

  3. FCA #5 TSA Requirements - Model • The calculation of the FCA #5 local capacity requirements, including the TSA requirements, rely on the latest available data • Load forecast, resource data and resource availability were presented to the Power Supply Planning Committee on 12/06/2010; details are available at: http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/relblty_comm/pwrsuppln_comm/mtrls/2010/dec62010/index.html • The transmission topology that was certified for FCA #5 was introduced at the 09/20/10 RC; details are available at: http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/othrmkts_data/fcm/qual/models/index.html

  4. FCA #5 TSA Requirements and Transfer Limits • Transfer limits are updated to reflect the impact of a new major transmission project when all of the following conditions are met • All portions of the major transmission project have been certified • They have been certified to be in-service by June 1 of the Capacity Commitment Period under consideration • Certification has occurred before the network model for the FCA was built • Studies to reflect the impact of the project on the transfer limits have been completed • The ISO has approved the certifications for all portions of the project pursuant to Section III.12.6 of Market Rule 1 • Based on the certified transmission topology for FCA #5, only the Connecticut import limits were changed • The N-1 and N-1-1 Boston import limits remained at 4,900 and 3,700 MW respectively; the N-1 Maine-New Hampshire export limit remained at 1,600 MW • Transfer limits for FCA #5 do not reflect the impact of the Maine Power Reliability Program (MPRP) as the conditions listed under bullet 1 were not all met

  5. FCA #5 TSA Requirements and Related Analysis • As was done for FCA #4, TSA requirements were calculated for the Connecticut and NEMA/Boston Load Zones • For the purpose of the FCA #5 NEMA/Boston TSA requirement, the calculation does not reflect the Salem Harbor station’s Permanent De-List Bid • This is consistent with the treatment of the Salem Harbor station’s Static De-List Bid in FCA #4 • This is consistent with section 6 of ISO Planning Procedure 10 – Planning Procedure to Support the Forward Capacity Market and section III.12.7 of Market Rule 1 • As a sensitivity, a NEMA/Boston TSA was also performed without the Salem Harbor units • Salem Harbor’s capacity was removed from the pool of existing resources in NEMA/Boston • The N-1 and N-1-1 Boston import limits were adjusted to 4,775 MW and 3,375 MW respectively

  6. FCA #5 TSA Requirements and Related Analysis, cont • As detailed in the appendix, TSA requirements were calculated for both a “Line-Gen” and “Line-Line” scenario • As a worst-case sensitivity analysis, TSA requirements were also calculated for the New Hampshire, Rhode Island, SEMASS, WCMASS and Vermont Load Zones; a worst-case assumption of 0 MWof N-1 and N-1-1 import transfer capability was initially assumed for these Load Zones • As further sensitivity, a Capacity Zone determination was performed • It was assumed that in every Load Zone, the Local Sourcing Requirement would be set by the TSA requirement • The determination was based on the methodology described in section III.12.4 of Market Rule 1

  7. FCA #5 TSA Requirements – Line-Gen All values in MW

  8. FCA #5 TSA Requirements – Line-Line All values in MW

  9. FCA #5 TSA Requirements - Results • The Load Zone sensitivity analysis show that • Regardless of their N-1 or N-1-1 import capability, there is no need to form separate Capacity Zones for New Hampshire or SEMASS, because the revised amount of capacity to be compared to the export-adjusted LSR can not be lower than the export-adjusted LSR • Under the worst-case assumption where the N-1 or N-1-1 import capability into Rhode Island, WCMASS and Vermont is below the required import capability shown below, the revised amount of capacity to be compared to the export –adjusted LSR can be less than the export-adjusted LSR; however, these Load Zones’ interfaces are such that they include many 345kV, 230kV or 115kV ties; therefore, there is still no need to form separate Capacity Zones for Rhode Island, WCMASS and Vermont

  10. FCA #5 TSA Requirements – Results, cont. • The results of the NEMA/Boston sensitivity analysis show that with or without the Salem Harbor units, there is no need to form a separate Capacity Zone for NEMA/Boston • The final FCA #5 TSA requirement for NEMA/Boston is set by the Line-Gen scenario and is 3,046 MW • The final FCA #5 TSA requirement for Connecticut is set by the Line-Gen scenario and is 7,478 MW

  11. Questions 11

  12. AppendixMethodology and Additional Assumptions Behind the TSA Values for the 2014/15 FCA

  13. Background • The methodology and assumptions used to determine the 2014/15 TSA requirements were developed in accordance with section III.12.2.1.2. of Market Rule 1, and section 6 of ISO Planning Procedure 10 – Planning Procedure to Support the Forward Capacity Market

  14. Methodology • The TSA determines the requirement of the sub-area to meet its load through internal generation and import capability • It stems from ISO Planning Procedure 3 - Reliability Standards for the New England Area Bulk Power Supply System key transmission security requirements • Integrate all resources and serve area load under N-1 and N-1-1 conditions • Perform review under reasonably stressed conditions (“With due allowance for generator maintenance and forced outages”) • It is performed via a series of transmission load flow studies • In performing the analysis, static transmission interface transfer limits may be established as a reasonable representation of the transmission system’s capability to serve sub-area load with available existing resources • Results may be presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis

  15. Methodology, cont. • When presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis, the TSA compares need with available resources • Needs include • Load + Loss of Generator (“Line-Gen” scenario), or • Load + Loss of import capability (going from an N-1 import capability to an N-1-1 import capability; “Line-Line” scenario) • Resources include • N-1 Import capability • Regular generation • Operating actions (fast start units, demand response…) • Resource unavailability is applied by de-rating capacity • Example

  16. Methodology, cont. (Need – Import Limit) TSA Requirement 1 - ( Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resources) • For each of the potential import constrained Capacity Zones, the TSA requirement (resource requirement that will be compared to the Local Resource Adequacy Requirement) is the amount of internal resources (generators and Demand Resources) needed in the zone, so that the Line-Line or Line-Gen requirements can be met after proper accounting for resource unavailability • The TSA requirement can be approximated by using the following formula • The TSA requirement ensures that the zone’s transmission security margin remains close to zero

  17. Methodology, cont. (9 500 – 2 500) 7 368 MW TSA Requirement 1 - (500/ 10 000) • Example: • The proposed TSA requirement formula is based on the assumption that the amount of assumed unavailable capacity, prior to the N-1 or N-1-1 state, is proportional to the amount of existing resources • In the prior example, it is assumed that 500/10,000=5% of the resources will be unavailable on forced or maintenance outage, prior to the N-1 or N-1-1 state. This assumption is maintained regardless of the amount of existing resources that is assumed in the sub-area

  18. Methodology, cont. • The TSA requirement calculation is an approximation, due to: • The use of static transmission interface transfer limits • The reliance on specific scenarios (“Line-Gen”) and (“Line-Line”) • The nature of the calculation • The term [Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resource] in the above equation depends on the actual proportion of regular generation, peaking generation, intermittent resources, Real-Time Emergency Generation (RT-EG), active non-RTEG Demand Resources (DR) and passive DR • The fact that the energy Load Zones boundaries do not exactly correspond to the real operating boundaries • Real operating boundaries are based on the limiting constraints that define a zone’s import capability and the ability of the generation within the zone to alleviate those constraints • The TSA requirement is calculated based on the zone’s real operating boundaries and is an approximation for what the requirement would be for the energy Load Zone

  19. FCA 2014/15 TSA Assumptions • Load Forecast Data • 2010 CELT forecast • Connecticut sub-area 90/10 peak load*: 8,240 MW • Boston sub-area 90/10 peak load*: 6,325 MW • Resource Data** • Generating Capacity • Connecticut sub-area existing qualified capacity: 8,408 MW • Includes 6,686 MW of regular generation resources, 193 MW of intermittent generation resources and 1,529 MW of peaking generation resources • Boston sub-area existing qualified capacity: 3,351 MW • Includes 3,047 MW of regular generation resources, 70 MW of intermittent generation resources and 234 MW of peaking generation resources *The 90/10 peak load for the sub-area differs slightly from the 90/10 peak load for the Load Zone. ** Totals are approximate as they may include rounding and/or minimal changes due to data collection timing.

  20. FCA 2014/15 TSA Assumptions, cont. • Resource Data* • Passive Demand Resources • Connecticut sub-area existing qualified capacity: 423 MW • Boston sub-area existing qualified capacity: 236 MW • Non-RTEG Active Demand Resources • Connecticut sub-area existing qualified capacity: 372 MW • Boston sub-area existing qualified capacity: 281 MW • Real-Time Emergency Generation • Connecticut sub-area existing qualified capacity: 299 MW • Boston sub-area existing qualified capacity: 148 MW * Totals are approximate as they may include rounding and/or minimal changes due to data collection timing.

  21. FCA 2014/15 TSA Assumptions, cont. • Resource Unavailability Assumptions • Regular Generation Resources - Weighted average EFORd • Connecticut sub-area: 5% • Boston sub-area: 7% • Peaking Generation Resources - Operational de-rating factor • Connecticut and Boston sub-areas: 20% • Passive Demand Resources: 0% • Non-RTEG Active Demand Resources - De-rating based on performance factors • Connecticut sub-area: 24% • Boston sub-area: 28% • Real-Time Emergency Generation - De-rating based on performance factors • Connecticut sub-area: 13% • Boston sub-area: 13%

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