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Regional Visions: 50-Year Transportation Demand Modeling

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  1. Regional Visions: 50-Year Transportation Demand Modeling Florida Model Task Force Meeting December 13, 2006

  2. 2025 Florida Transportation Plan • Long range goals and objectives for the State Transportation System • FTP Objectives: • Enhance regional coordination -- Develop regional visions and action plans that integrate transportation, land use, economic, community and environmental systems to guide transportation investments. Focus attention on meeting mobility needs within regions that transcend traditional jurisdictional boundaries, and ensuring connectivity between SIS, regional, and local facilities. • Set criteria for new hubs & corridors “Future Corridors” --Establish statewide criteria for identifying and developing new SIS facilities where such facilities are needed to connect the economic regions of the state, especially economically distressed areas, coordinated with regional and community visions

  3. 2025 FTP: Guidance • Regional Coordination excerpts: • “Regional visions should be developed for relatively large geographic areas throughout the state through a bottom up process in which all jurisdictions join one or more regions.” • “Regional visions and action plans should be the result of close coordination and harmonization among currently separate planning processes related to transportation, land use, economic development, community development, and environmental stewardship.” • “The regional planning process should result in key outcomes, including priorities for investments in a regional transportation network that includes multimodal options and reflects the balance between efficient regional travel and community and environmental resources with each region.”

  4. Florida Regional Visioning Initiatives • Projects complete, ongoing or planned: • Central Florida: “How Shall We Grow” • Southwest Florida Regional Stewardship Alliance • Tampa Bay Vision 21 • Committee for a Sustainable Emerald Coast • Northeast Florida Regional Vision for the Future • Southeast Florida 2050: Regional Vision for a New Century • Committee for a Sustainable Treasure Coast • Completed, policy plan

  5. Central Florida: “How Shall We Grow” • Vision: accommodating growth of 4 million residents by 2050 • Community input: • Areas for residential growth (density, character) • Lands for preservation • Transportation improvements (roadway, transit) • Five scenarios for future growth • Performance indicators • FDOT District 5 conducting travel demand modeling, other analyses – transportation impacts

  6. Central Florida: “How Shall We Grow” • Transportation indicators • # and % of system miles in each network (roads, transit, bike/ped) • # and % of trips by mode, miles traveled by mode • % of pop/employment within ¼ mile of transit • Total daily, per capita & per household vehicle miles and hours of travel • Total daily, per capita & per household hours of delay • Average speed • Total and daily cost of delay • Auto crashes and fatalities

  7. Future Corridor Planning Process Feasibility ETDM/PD&E Concept Corridor Feasibility Study ETDM/PD&E High-Level Screening Proposed Study Area Identified Potential Corridors Identified for Feasibility Study Specific Alternatives Identified for Detailed Analysis Implementation GO GO GO STOP ? STOP ? STOP ? 27a

  8. Mobility/Connectivity System connectivity Gaps in existing system Intermodal connectivity Connectivity to SIS Connectivity to regional systems Congestion/delay/reliability Freight and visitor flows Emergency evacuation and response Military needs Safety Economic Competitiveness Access to statewide industry clusters Access to fast-growing areas Access to economically distressed areas Economic development benefits Economic disruptions Community Livability Land use and development Comprehensive planning and visioning Multi-use facilities Historic and archaeological resources Noise and aesthetics Degree of community support Environmental Stewardship Conservation lands Surface waters Wetlands Coastal and marine Threatened/endangered habitat Air quality Energy consumption Screening Criteria for Statewide Corridors 40a

  9. Initial Study Areas for Potential New Statewide Corridors 56a

  10. Alabama state line to Duval County (I-10/multimodal) Collier County to Georgia state line (I-75/multimodal) Miami-Dade County to Georgia state line (I-95/multimodal) Hillsborough County to Volusia County (I-4/multimodal) Miami-Dade County to Lake County (US 27/multimodal) Potential Multimodal Re-Use of Statewide Corridors

  11. Considerations: Forecasting Travel Demands for 50 Year Horizons • Capture travel behavior changes? • Use of computer/internet for telecommuting, shopping, education • Impact of increases in fuel cost • Increased population, density, congestion

  12. Other Vision Initiatives in US • Contacts: Portland Metro, Envision Utah, LA Compass Blueprint, Fregonese Calthorpe, Smart Mobility (Vermont) • Discussion about possible model adjustments (what and how parameters might change) • However, no agreement on any actual changes • Model used to ID differences between scenarios, not absolute impacts as in MPO plans

  13. Potential Model Considerations in FL • Changing household profiles • Increasing incomes • Downtown residential development trends • Suburban and ex-urban development • Vehicle availability • Transit ridership changing • Interaction of transportation and land use decisions

  14. Feedback Needed • Develop potential guidelines/approaches for 50 year modeling? • Future research to support guidelines, model development needs? • Linkage of regional vision/land use plans to FSUTMS?

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