Kyoto and Beyond. Road to Durban. The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change . November 7 th , 2011. www.isciences.com. Introduction.
Road to Durban
The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change
November 7th, 2011
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Road to Durban is a summary of the events and negotiations that have transpired since COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011).
NOTE: Throughout this presentation clickable hyperlinks that provide additional information will be underlined and written in green.
COP16 (Conference of the Parties) was held from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico.
“ Cancun was a big step... Governments renewed their trust in each other, but to succeed fully they need to press boldly ahead with what they have agreed. “Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary
Image Credit: UNFCCC Website
The 5 Mechanisms of the Cancun Agreements
The Green Climate Fund
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+)
Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV)
Incorporation of the CopenhagenAccord
For more information click on an item in the list
June 6 - 17
UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn
Oct 1 - 7
UN Climate Change Conference in Panama
South African Civil Society Meeting
August 26 – 27
Eighth BASIC Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December
April 3 – 11UN Bangkok Climate Change Conference
Aug 22MaiteNkoana-Mashabane meets business leaders
Aug 29MaiteNkoana-Mashabane meets Organized Labour
Sept 26 – 27Pre–COP17 Summit
Official UNFCCC Meetings
Other Significant Meetings
For more information click on an event box
COP17 Nov. 28 – Dec. 9, 2011, Durban, South Africa
“ We go to Durban with no illusions that it will be a walk in the park“Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa
COP 17 Key Agenda Items
* The agenda will be finalized in Durban. Provisional agenda can be found here.
As host country, South Africa will bring the most vulnerable nations into the center of the climate change discussion.
Click map image for more information on South Africa’s preparations
Image Credit: south-africa.purzuit.com/
Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s President, believes COP17 will highlight the impactsclimate change has had on Africa.
“It is a timely conference for our country. Disaster events have become an increasing burden.”President Zuma
image credit: Wikimedia Commons
Zuma cautions leaders not to be “overly theoretical when countries face life and death situations as a result of climate change,” and he seeks an outcome that is balanced and fair with support for legislative action.
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President Designate, faces pressure to facilitate cooperation between developed and developing nations.
image provided by Wikimedia Commons
Nkoana-Mashabane, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, hopes to prove that developing nations have a credible voice in climate change discussions.
Click here for information on Nkoana-Mashabane’s main concerns for COP17
On Primary Concerns for COP17
On a Second Commitment Period for the Kyoto Protocol
Attempts to limit global temperature rise to 2 C may no longer be an option.
Image Credit: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3076.aspx
* US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Limiting global temperature rise to 2 C will require transformative changes*.
The technology to make these changes exists, but a transformation of this scope has never occurred.
*IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf
Emissions measurements for 2009 were the highest in history.*
Parts Per Million (PPM) – measurement of atmospheric C02 levels
Gigatonne – one billion tonnes, the typical measurement for C02 emissions data
1 PPM = 2.13 Gigatonnes**
A chief economist at the IEA has stated that record emissions hinder hopes of limiting global temperature rise to less than 2 C.***
* IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf** Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Emissions are increasing from the developing world, and projected emissions from the power sector are locked in.
“The figures are a stark warning to governments to make rapid climate progress.” Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Emissions status of the big emitters: US, China, India*
Click here to download the Excel file containing the full set of statistics.
Click here to view a graphic of the statistics (Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton , The Guardian).
* Global C02 emissions statistics for 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration (US EIA). EIA statistics for 2010 have not yet been compiled for public release.
It is estimated that each year for the next 20 years $275 billion is needed for adaptation and mitigation.*
* World Bank
** International Institute for Environment and Development
There is an increase in attention to the role carbon sinks will play in sequestering GHG emissions.*
Land monitoring policies, such as REDD+ have become increasingly important to preserve forests
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
* Pan et al. “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests”** 1 petagram = 1,000,000,000,000,000 grams
A recent IPCC draft report* states a 2-in-3 probability that extreme weather has already worsened due to human-induced GHG emissions.
Image Credit: NASA, Wikimedia Commons
* IPCC draft report, The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Final report is expected to be released in mid-November, 2011.
How will the emerging scientific knowledge impact discussions and outcomes in Durban?
By US Army Africa [CC-BY-2.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Upcoming opportunities to advance climate change progress.
Important Meetings Post-COP17
June 2012 - G20 summit, Mexico. May be some discussion on climate change.
June 2012 - Rio+20 Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants to discuss successes and failures of past 20 years of climate change legislation and ways to tackle future issues.
Late 2012 - COP18, Qatar or South Korea. NOTE: It is possible the Kyoto Protocol will have ended completely, therefore eliminating COP18.
Can COP17 generate effective, timely actions to address increasingly urgent climate issues?
Time runs out for the Kyoto Protocol. COP17 sets 5-yr target for Protocol successor.
Image Credit: UNFCCC
Mechanisms of the Protocol and the Cancun Agreements continue, even without binding targets.
The Rio+20 Earth Summit gains new urgency as a potential vehicle of change.
Regional coalitions of nations pursue collective agreements outside of the UNFCCC process.
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When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation:
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Durban. A slideshow; 5th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond. November 7, 2011. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.
November 7, 2011