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WAWC Workshop 4.8.2005

WAWC Workshop 4.8.2005. How to evaluate the disruptiveness potential of new wireless technologies – perspectives of ICT industry players Liisa-Maija Sainio, Senior Lecturer. Themes of the presentation. Background & goal of the study Propositional framework & concepts Methodology

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WAWC Workshop 4.8.2005

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  1. WAWC Workshop 4.8.2005 • How to evaluate the disruptiveness potential of • new wireless technologies – • perspectives of ICT industry players • Liisa-Maija Sainio, Senior Lecturer

  2. Themes of the presentation • Background & goal of the study • Propositional framework & concepts • Methodology • Propositional analysis • Conclusions

  3. Background • Doctoral dissertation project; 4 cases: • 1) Bluetooth – national operator • 2) WLAN – local operator A • 3) Grid computing – software company • 4) Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm – comparison between device manufacturer and local operator B

  4. Goal of the study • How do firms interpret potentially disruptive technologies or operating models in their own strategic context • Themes of the framework: • PR 1) Product characteristics and added value • PR 2) Technology and market uncertainty • PR 3) Changes in product-market positions • PR 4) Competence destruction • PR 5) Changes in value network positions •  Amount of radical changes in business model?

  5. Propositional framework

  6. Concepts • Disruptive technology: (vs. technical operating model) • - Different value proposition • - Rapid improvements in performance; ultimately meets the needs of mainstream markets • - Destroys the competences of existing industry players • Business model: Unique combination of activities, resources and strategies with which the company delivers value to customers and captures profit from the market.

  7. Methodology • Combination of technology forecasting and strategic analysis • Firm-level qualitative analysis and cross-case analysis (how did the framework function?) • group discussions with ICT industry experts • Why group discussions? • Efficient way of gathering rich data • Quick feedback (evaluation & control)

  8. Computing power: product  service Low-cost network access, 3 G? Low-cost cable replacement, hot spot services Vs. centralized client- server models INVESTIGATED CASE TECHNOLOGIES: GRID COMPUTING: dynamic,virtual resource allocation (storage, calculations) WLAN: wireless access in public spaces ~100 m MOBILE P2P PARADIGM: decentralized operating model Wired connection BLUETOOTH: Personal Area Networking ~10 m Wireless, ad hoc connection

  9. Different dimensions of disruptiveness: • Improvements in performance criteria (Bluetooth) • Not taken seriously in its initial stages (”WLAN is a bit of joke technology”) • May change pricing structures (P2P) • May change the product concept and distribution model (Grid computing) • New functions to existing applications

  10. Conclusions • Results not generalizable! • The value in the process itself; providing a holistic perspective on a new technology • Cross-case analysis result: Proposition 4 possibly not reliable! • Contradiction between changes in product characteristics and uncertainty vs. strategic response! • Knowledge structures enforce the belief in current competences • Sign of vulnerability in the face of potentially disruptive technologies

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