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Explore the evolution of conflicts in the modern era, from wealthy countries to civil wars with international involvement and rising civilian casualties. Discover the factors contributing to the decline in overall warfare, yet anticipate looming challenges including religious fundamentalism and resource shortages. Delve into the role of international peacekeeping institutions like the United Nations and NATO in maintaining global stability while navigating the complexities of arms trade and the proliferation of small arms.
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End of History? • no wars fought between democratic countries (in 20th century) • nor (since WWII) between wealthy countries--a few exceptions
So who is still fighting? • Most wars of the past 50 years are: • fought in poor countries • civil wars • possibly with foreign involvement • ill-defined forces • para-militaries, children, abductees • high civilian casualties
Recent factors behind decline in conflicts • End of most colonial wars of independence • End of Cold War • Rising incomes, especially Asia • Greater peace-keeping and peace-making by international forces
But down the road . . . • Increasing tensions with religious fundamentalism • Intractable poverty • Conflicts over shortages of oil, water, and other resources • The unpredictable
UN forces • UN chapter 7 authorized forces--Korea, First Iraq War, etc • “Blue Helmets”--UN peacekeepers • more than 60 missions, growing
International Forces--NATO • formed 1949--US dominant • mutual defense clause • reinvented after 1991, eventually expanded • first use: 1994 ending war in Bosnia • 1999 more extensive use against Serbia, protecting Kosovo • 2003 takes over security role from Germany in Afghanistan
The Arms market • Small arms—total of 1 gun for every 10 people on earth