Building the 21st century national aerospace workforce
Download
1 / 34

Building the 21st Century National Aerospace Workforce - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 88 Views
  • Uploaded on

“Right Skills, Right Place, Right Time”. Building the 21st Century National Aerospace Workforce. ASME International, Congressional Briefing May 5, 2003 Presentation by: Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, MIT.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Building the 21st Century National Aerospace Workforce' - mechelle-pace


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Building the 21st century national aerospace workforce

“Right Skills, Right Place, Right Time”

Building the 21st Century National Aerospace Workforce

ASME International,

Congressional Briefing

May 5, 2003

Presentation by:

Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, MIT

For more information on aerospace workforce research at MIT, see the publications presented by MIT’s Labor Aerospace Research Agenda http://mit.edu/ctpid/lara and MIT’s Lean Aerospace Initiative http://web.mit.edu/lean. For more information on the IAM and High Performance Work Organizations, see http://www.goiam.org under “visit IAM Headquarters.”


Mission and vision
Mission and Vision

  • Overall Mission for the Aerospace Industry:

    • Enable the global movement of people and goods;

    • Enable the global acquisition and dissemination of information and data;

    • Advance national security interests; and

    • Provide a source of inspiration by pushing the boundaries of exploration and innovation

      Source: Lean Enterprise Value: Insights from MIT’s Lean Aerospace Initiative (Palgrave/MacMillan, 2002)

  • 21st Century Workforce Vision:

    • Attract and retain a 21st Century aerospace workforce with the skills, capabilities and commitment to enable transformation and success in the aerospace industry


Strategic challenges in aerospace
Strategic Challenges in Aerospace

  • Knowledge and Capability

    • Demographic “cliff”

    • Underutilization of women and minorities

    • Gaps in “pipelines” – skilled apprenticeships and aerospace engineering programs

    • Outsourcing knowledge and skills

    • New technologies and changing skill mix requirements

  • Competitive Challenges

    • Global competition and organizational instability

    • Institutional barriers, monuments and gaps in the “social infrastructure”

    • Plummeting research and development spending

    • Reduced attractiveness of careers in aerospace


A new mindset is required
A New Mindset is Required

“Investing in R & D as a “pull” for the 21st Century workforce is not a new idea, but it gets to the root cause. . . How do we look at R & D from the point of view of building future capability – investing in human capital – not just completing a given project or program? This means that the definition of R & D priorities must be made with multiple stakeholders’ input to anticipate future needs – taking more of a long-term, strategic approach to such investments.”

  • Dr. Sheila Widnall, former Secretary of the U.S. Air Force and MIT Institute Professor (in forward to Developing a 21st Century Aerospace Workforce, Policy White Paper submitted to the Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry, 2002)


Institutional opportunities
Institutional Opportunities

  • Aerospace Inter-Agency Task Force

    • Spanning the Department of Defense, NASA, FAA, Departments of Labor, Education, Commerce and Homeland Security – to coordinate government aerospace workforce initiatives

  • Aerospace Capability Network

    • Public/private partnerships spanning all key stakeholders – business, labor, government, universities and community groups

  • Industry Promotion and Development

    • National campaign on aerospace opportunities – primary schools, secondary schools, community colleges and universities


Aerospace workforce knowledge skills and abilities a conceptual map
Aerospace Workforce Knowledge, Skills and Abilities: A Conceptual Map

Government Policies and Initiatives (within and across agencies) on Aerospace Workforce

Workplace-Specific Initiatives (public and private facilities)

National, Regional & Local Aerospace Workforce Initiatives (Industry / Labor / Government)

Curriculum Innovation University / Industry

Skill Standards and Certification

Apprenticeships and OJT Initiatives

Industry/Workforce Skills Assessment

Knowledge Maintenance

Life-Long Learning Initiatives

Industry/Workforce Needs Assessment

Knowledge Acquisition

Knowledge Utilization

Knowledge Enhancement

Industry/Workforce Retention Initiatives

School-to-Work Initiatives

Displace Worker Initiatives

Aerospace Programs in the K-12 Schools

Knowledge-Driven Work Systems (Lean, Six Sigma, etc.)

Knowledge Management

Skill and Knowledge Initiatives Across Individual Careers/Lifecycles

K-12 . . . College & University . . . Early Career . . . Mid-Career . . . Retirement/Post-Retirement

Skill and Knowledge Initiatives Across Multiple Enterprise Value Streams

Basic Science . . . Conception. . . Design/Development . . . Production . . . Sales/Sustainment

Source: MIT’s Labor Aerospace Research Agenda


Application to house h 586 and senate s 309 aviation revitalization bills

Focus of Funding: Conceptual Map

Environmental Aircraft R&D Initiative

Rotorcraft Aircraft R&D Initiative

Civil Supersonic Transport R&D Initiative

University-Based Centers for Research on Aviation Training

Aviation Weather Research

Air Traffic Management R&D Initiative

High Leverage Applications:

Knowledge & the Demand for labor

Assessment of current and future R&D skill / knowledge requirements in each sector

Knowledge & the Supply of labor

Assessment and action around demographics (current distribution, prospective restructuring / retirements, and anticipated flow of new entrants)

Knowledge Across Value Streams

Projecting skill / knowledge implications of R&D investment forward across value streams

. . . All broadening the focus beyond training to knowledge-driven, lean work systems

Application to House (H.586 and Senate (S.309) Aviation Revitalization Bills


Ensuring a pivotal impact of r d investment in aerospace
Ensuring a Pivotal Impact of R&D Investment in Aerospace Conceptual Map

  • Attract next generation aerospace workforce – the best and brightest

  • Maintain knowledge and capability in the context of the “demographic cliff” and other challenges

  • Optimize the current mix of knowledge, skills and abilities

  • Identify future skill requirements

  • Dual bottom line:

    • A strong return on R&D investment

    • Reinvigorate the aerospace vision – A renewed sense of wonder and excitement!

“Right Skills, Right Place, Right Time”


Appendix
Appendix Conceptual Map

  • Careers in aerospace – defense aerospace platforms by decade

  • Individual survey data – next generation in aerospace

  • Aerospace employment and sales data

  • U.S. engines and parts imports as a share of total aircraft sales, 1981-2000

  • Instability and program cost/schedule performance

  • National aerospace facility survey

    • Apprenticeship data

    • Global footprint data


Careers in aerospace lifetime defense aerospace platforms by entry decade

40 Year Career Span Conceptual Map

Retired

Retired

XP5Y XFY

A2D F8U

XC120 F6M1

F4D U2

F3H SY3

B52 F105

A3D X13

X3 C133

S2F F107

X2 B58

F10F F106

F2Y F5D

F100 X14

B57 C140

F102 T2

R3Y1 F4

F104 A5

A4D T39

B66 T38

F11F AQ1

C130 X15

F101 F5A

T37 X1B

Retiring

Experience: 6+ Programs

Mid Career

Experience: 1-2 Programs

Experience: 1 Program

A6

B52

SR71

SC4A

X21

X19

C141

B70

XC142

F111

A7

OV10

X22

X26B

X5A

X24

“We believe that a declining experience

level has been a contributing factor to the

problems we observe in many recent aircraft

programs.”

RAND

F14

S8

YA9

A10

F15

F18

YF-17

B1

YC15

YC14

AV8b

F/A18

F117

F20

X29

T46

T45

B2

V22

F22 EMD

YF22

YF23

JSF X36

JSF X37

C17

JSF EMD

UCAV

BX

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

2030s

Source: RAND Study (chart by Northrop Grumman) -- Vertical Bars: Military Aircraft Program Starts

Careers in aerospace – lifetime defense aerospace platforms by entry decade


Individual survey data next generation in aerospace
Individual Survey Data – Next Generation in Aerospace Conceptual Map

“I would highly recommend that my children work in this industry”

(Agree or Strongly Agree, n=482)



Building the 21st century national aerospace workforce
Chart 2: Major Non-U.S. Aerospace Employer Countries since 1980( > 30,000 employees with time series data available)



Chart 4 sales and employment sic 372 aircraft and part since 1980
Chart 4: Sales and Employment (SIC 372 and 376) since 1980SIC 372 - Aircraft and Part since 1980


Chart 5 sales and employment sic 376 guided missiles space vehicles and parts since 1980
Chart 5: Sales and Employment (SIC 372 and 376) since 1980SIC 376 - Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles, and Parts since 1980



Chart 7 sales and employment for canadian aerospace industry since 1984
Chart 7: Sales and Employment for since 1980Canadian Aerospace Industry since 1984





Instability and program cost schedule performance
Instability and program cost/schedule performance sales, 1981-2000

Table 1. Average Annual Program Cost Growth and Its Sources

Table 2. Sources of Program Schedule Slip

Source: Eric Rebentisch, MIT Lean Aerospace Initiative, 1996


National facility survey overview and process
National Facility Survey: Overview and Process sales, 1981-2000

  • Cross-sectional data – longitudinal results in some cases

  • Single respondents from facilities

  • Post 9/11– current data but a major discontinuity

  • Analysis just beginning

  • Causality not always clear

  • Overview:

    • A nationally representative sample of aerospace facilities to examine instability, new work systems, skills & capability, intellectual capital, and related matters

  • Process:

    • Sample drawn from national aerospace directory

    • Mailed survey to approximately 2500 facilities

    • Special panel established for respondents to 1999 National Facility Survey – drawn from same source

    • Second mailing and follow-up telephone calls

    • Data presented based on 362 responses

      • Note: Over 200 returned as “not in the aerospace industry” or returned to sender as bad addresses

CAUTION


Profile data on facilities and respondents

Facility Profile sales, 1981-2000

Average Number of Employees:

558 employees

Average Year Began Operations:

1976

Average % Sales to Largest Customer:

30%

Average Number of Major Government Programs:

5.4 Programs

Average Number of Major Commercial Programs:

8.9 Programs

Product Volume – Primary Product:

Low: 60% Med: 32% High: 8%

Unionization Among Respondents:

15%

Industry Sector Distribution

Aircraft Frames/Structures: 24%

Aircraft Engines: 13%

Avionics: 15%

Spacecraft and Missiles: 6%

Other (mostly suppliers): 42%

Respondent Profile

Average Years of Experience in Aerospace:

24 years

Average Age Range:

46-55 years

Average Education Level:

Undergraduate Degree and some Graduate Education

Profile Data on Facilities and Respondents


Recent changes in employment 1999 and 2002 survey data
Recent Changes in Employment: 1999 and 2002 Survey Data sales, 1981-2000

More than half of aerospace facilities report a decrease in employment over the past three years – a deterioration from the employment picture in 1998.


Recent and prospective retirements 2002 survey data
Recent and Prospective Retirements: 2002 Survey Data sales, 1981-2000

The proportion of the workforce eligible to retire in next three years is substantially higher than the past three years – with the greatest impact on large employers.


Us dol and other apprenticeship programs 2002 survey
US DoL and Other Apprenticeship Programs: 2002 Survey sales, 1981-2000

The vast majority (85%) of aerospace facilities do not have apprenticeship programs and of those that do, approximately 2/3 have had no graduates over the past three years and have no one in the programs.


Percent of us respondents reporting suppliers in each location
Percent of US Respondents Reporting sales, 1981-2000Suppliers in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 4%

Europe: 35%

Canada, Mexico: 23%

Japan, China, Korea: 22%

US: 95%

South America: 3%

Other: 3%

Key: Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Percent of us respondents reporting customers in each location
Percent of US Respondents Reporting sales, 1981-2000Customers in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 5%

Europe: 75%

Canada, Mexico: 56%

Japan, China, Korea: 50%

US: 98%

South America: 29%

Other: 18%

Key:Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Percent of us respondents reporting joint ventures in each location
Percent of US Respondents Reporting sales, 1981-2000Joint Ventures in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 1%

Europe: 18%

Canada, Mexico: 7%

Japan, China, Korea: 11%

US: 40%

South America: 1%

Other: 3%

Key: Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Percent of us respondents reporting strategic partners in each location
Percent of US Respondents Reporting sales, 1981-2000Strategic Partners in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 6%

Europe: 22%

Canada, Mexico: 10%

Japan, China, Korea: 11%

US: 50%

South America: 1%

Other: 5%

Key: Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Percent of us respondents reporting current competitors in each location
Percent of US Respondents Reporting sales, 1981-2000Current Competitors in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 6%

Europe: 66%

Canada, Mexico: 25%

Japan, China, Korea: 31%

US: 92%

South America: 5%

Other: 5%

Key: Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Percent of us respondents projecting future competitors in each location
Percent of US Respondents Projecting sales, 1981-2000Future Competitors in Each Location

Russia, CIS: 20%

Europe: 58%

Canada, Mexico: 33%

Japan, China, Korea: 68%

US: 73%

South America: 13%

Other: 10%

Key: Blue: Under 25%;Red: 25-50%;Green: Over 50%


Selected written comments on 2002 surveys
Selected Written Comments on 2002 Surveys sales, 1981-2000

  • September 11 has had a severe impact on our industry which has influenced this survey. Airlines have received government support, however none of these funds have provided GSE manufacturers stability or longevity.

  • Over the last two years we have been working very hard on upgrading Quality Systems (AS9000), implementing LEAN manufacturing, training, while at the same time diversifying the business and trying to penetrate new markets. Our products (cargo systems) are installed on older aircraft and those were affected heavily by the down turn in the economy as well as the events of sept. 11.

  • Can't get domestic labor - skilled or otherwise. HELP!

  • Since September 11, 2001, there has been a significant downturn in the volume of our business. I know for a fact that our facility and at least three of our most valued suppliers face an almost insurmountable challenge to stay afloat over the next 90 - 120 days if something doesn't change.

  • We withdrew from the aerospace markets in 1997 and moved our manufacturing capabilities to the energy equipment markets.

  • OEM's are using DOD funding to develop new technologies, practices & procedures and then turnaround and subcontract work overseas to the lowest bidder. They also utilize these advances on their commercial products which are primarily subcontracted to Asia & Mexico under the guise of mandatory offsets.