AURAMS : Application and Evaluation on the Regional Scale

1. www.ec.gc.ca AURAMS : Application and Evaluation on the Regional Scale Wanmin Gong et al. Air Quality Research Division Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada

2. OUTLINE • Brief description of AURAMS • Recent science-related applications on regional scale: ICARTT 2004 simulation (short-term application) 2002 annual simulation (long-term application) AURAMS-CMAQ inter-comparison • Recent and on-going policy applications Contributors: ARQI/S&TB: M. Moran, P. Makar, C. Stroud, S. Gong, J. Zhang, Q. Zheng, B. Pabla AQMAG/MSC: V. Bouchet, S. Cousineau, M. Samaali, M. Sassi, R. Pavlovic, H. Landry, A. Duhamel, D. Talbot, S. Gaudreault, J. Racine National Research Council of Canada: W. Jiang, S. Smyth et al.

3. AUnified Regional Air-quality Modelling System • Episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system • “Unified’ in sense that it considers multiple air pollutants and can be applied to multiple AQ issues (e.g., PM, acid deposition, tropospheric O3) for integrated AQ management • Consists of 3 main components: • regional emissions processing system (SMOKE); • Canadian weather forecast model (GEM); • “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality model • Current PM resolution: 12 size bins (0.01-40.96 m) and 9 chemical components (SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H2O) • Similar in terms of science and complexity to EPA’s CMAQ system

4. AURAMS National Emission Inventories (Cdn, U.S., Mex.) Population data Econometric data Land-use data Geophysical data Meteorological observations (OA) GEM/GEM-LAM (prognostic meteorological model) SMOKE point mobile area on-line biogenic emission Regional PM Model (CTM) Advection/diffusion (of 30 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers) , emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation,CCN activation), size-dependentscavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation. Components of Smog and Acid Rain: O3, SO2, NOx, etc., speciated PM2.5, PM10, dry & wet deposition of acidifying compounds…

5. Recent science-related applications on regional scale • Real-time model forecast for flight planning and guidance in recent field measurement campaign (e.g., ICARTT 2004, PrAIRie 2005, TexAQS/GoMACCS 2006). • Post field campaign model simulations, comparison with network and field intensive data (e.g. Pacific 2001, ICARTT 2004, and PrAIRie 2005). • Long-term simulation and model evaluation for the year 2002 • Model intercomparison (e.g., ICARTT 2004, TexAQS/GoMACCS 2006, NRCC AURAMS-CMAQ comparative model performance evaluation).

6. ICARTT 2004International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation EC component focused on chemical transformation and transport by clouds and transport to the Maritimes; 23 flights. • Real-time: forecast and flight planning support for the MSC ICARTT component based at Cleveland; real-time AQ model intercomparison, ensemble forecast, and evaluation (Stu McKeen NOAA/ESRL) • Post field campaign: model evaluation and sensitivity studies : biogenic emission, anthropogenic emission (inventory year and changes due to US NOx SIP Call control), vertical diffusion, horizontal resolution, in-cloud oxidation, SOA formation algorithms. • Evaluation data: AIRNow (O3, PM2.5), IMPROVE (organic/carbonaceous aerosol component), Convair 580, NOAA WP-3, RV Ron Brown, IONS ozonesonde.

7. ICARTT AQFM ensemble and evaluation [McKeen et al., JGR, 112, D10S20, doi:10.1029/2006JD007608, 2007; McKeen et al., JGR, 110, D21307, doi:10.1029/2005JD005858, 2005]

8. Selected AIRNOW sites ICARTT model evaluationtime series (42 vs. 15-km resolution)

9. Comparison with Convair measurement (gases) Flight 16 Flight 17

10. Comparison with Convair measurement (aerosol sulfate) SU25 Flight 16 Flight 17

11. ICARTT 2004 model application summary • Ensemble always outperforms any individual members. • Significant impact on ozone prediction from biogenic emission. • Higher resolution (15-km) in general increases the diurnal range of ozone and seems to better capture some of the PM event compared to lower resolution (42-km). • Further model process evaluation making use the extensive measurement data collected during the field campaign (e.g., cloud-aerosol interaction, SOA formation). • Assessing the impact of cloud processing of gases and particles over eastern NA and in its outflow during ICARTT 2004.

12. 2002 annual simulation • Evaluating AURAMS capability to simulate a full 12 month period in support of integrated management of multi-pollutants issues – O3, PM2.5, acid deposition. • Annual run set-up: • Meteorology: GEM 24-km • Emissions: 2000 Canadian/ 2001 US /1999 Mexican + Canadian oil sands included • Forest fire inventory not included • Biogenics on-line with BEIS3v0.9/BELD3 • Continental domain, 42km res. GEM24 -- greyAURAMS42 -- Blue

13. Evaluation of AURAMS 2002 annual simulation [Moran, M.D., Q. Zheng, and M. Samaali, 2007. Environment Canada internal report, in preparation.] Sulphur:

14. Evaluation of AURAMS 2002 annual simulation [Moran, M.D., Q. Zheng, and M. Samaali, 2007. Environment Canada internal report, in preparation.] Nitrate: The over-prediction of nitrate (nitric acid, particularly) is partly due to a ~50% overestimation in NO emission for this run.

15. Evaluation of AURAMS 2002 annual simulation [Moran, M.D., Q. Zheng, and M. Samaali, 2007. Environment Canada internal report, in preparation.] Precipitation chemistry: GEM prognostic precipitation

16. AURAMS predicted total (wet + dry) deposition for 2002(in H+ charge equivalent/hectare/year) [Zheng and Moran] t-N t-S t-S+N t-S : the sum of SO2, H2SO4, and p-SO4 t-N : the sum of t-NO3, t-NH3, NO2, and PAN t-NO3 : the sum of HNO3, RNO3, and p-NO3 t-NH3 : the sum of NH3 and p-NH4 t-S+N : the sum of t-S and t-N

17. AURAMS predicted critical-load exceedance for 2002 for Canada Critical-load exceedances for 2002, t-S only Combined aquatic and terrestrial critical-load field for Canada in H+ equivalents/hectares/yr Critical-load exceedances for 2002, t-S+N

18. Annual run evaluation summary • The evaluation of model performance at seasonal and annual scales is very encouraging, particularly for the acidifying compounds. • The model predicted critical-load (CL) exceedance fields are in broad agreement with the corresponding CL exceedance fields calculated based on measurements.

19. AURAMS-CMAQ comparative performance evaluation [Smyth, S.C., W. Jiang, H. Roth, and F. Yang, 2007, NRCC/ICPET Report, PET-1572-07S] • Both models were run in their native states; • Common meteorology – GEM15; • Common anthropogenic EIs (2000/2001) and common emissions processing system (SMOKE); • Similar horizontal resolution (but different projections); • Differences : • Vertical resolution; • Processing of meteorological fields; • Biogenic emission processing; • Speciation of primary PM emission; • Model science/algorithms; • Initial and lateral boundary conditions.

20. Comparison against network data - ozone

21. Comparison against network data - PM

22. Model-to-model comparison : ozone, p-SO4, p-NO3 Max. O3 Avg. p-SO4

23. Model-to-model comparison : PM composition AURAMS (no sea-salt) CMAQ Avg. PM2.5 conc. (μg m-3) : CMAQ - 1.89 AURAMS - 0.87 (excl. sea-salt) Average PM2.5 composition over land grid cells

24. NRCC AURAMS-CMAQ comparison summary • Ozone : similar error but different sign. • PM: both model significantly under predict with CMAQ prediction higher than AURAMS’. • Similar spatial distributions between the two models in ozone and PM mass predictions. • An attempt to compare the two models with minimum differences in model input and resolution, but the difference in LBC is seen to impact the inter-comparison significantly. • Needs follow up on the preliminary comparative evaluation.

25. AURAMS applications to support policy development (Contact: V. Bouchet, AQMAG/MSC, Veronique.Bouchet@ec.gc.ca) • Transboundary transport, e.g., analysis of the impacts of U.S. Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) on future Canadian smog and acid deposition levels; NOx & SOx emission trading – Canada-U.S. emission cap and trade feasibility study. • Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) : analyse effects of marine emissions and potential controls on ambient air quality. • Sectoral modelling : scenario modelling of transportation sector and effect on PM; effects of NH3 emissions and potential NH3 emission reductions on ambient air quality. • CARA (Clean Air Regulatory Agenda) support: provide strategic advice in the development of air pollutant emission targets and support in development and implementation of regulations and objectives – scenario runs to provide O3 changes (seasonal to annual), annual PM2.5, seasonal to annual visibility, annual sulphate and nitrate deposition. • Contribution to climate change and health vulnerability assessment (2007): provide estimates of changes in O3 exceedences under higher air temperature conditions. • Contribution to Canadian 2008 smog science assessment.

26. 2015 Business as Usual examples Mean summer (JJA) PM2.5 levels (top) and winter (JFM) PM2.5 levels (bottom) (µg/m3)– BAU - Average summer (JJA) O3 8h daily max (ppb) – BAU -

27. 2002 and 2015 Business as usual examples Averaged visual range (JJA) in km – 2015 BAU Annual SO4= and NO3- wet deposition totals (umoles/m2/yr) for 2015

28. On-going model development • K-F sub-grid-scale convective tracer mixing • SMOKE treatment of PM speciation and size distribution • Development/implementation of enhanced biogenics emission module • Development and implementation of wind-blown dust emission • Forest fire emission module? • Update gas-phase chemical mechanism and SOA algorithm • Implementation and testing new aerosol activation schemes • Cloud processing of gases and aerosols for cold season • Plume-in-grid module • PAH in AURAMS • Improved treatment of ageing process and mixing state of transport-related aerosols

29. www.ec.gc.ca

30. Major Point Source Emissions Flux Dry Deposition Velocities Calculated Semi- Lagrangian Advection Wind Correction Vertical Diffusion Particle micro-phys. + Cloud Processes + In. Het. Chem. Inside AURAMS’ CTM (Processes) One-step Operator Splitting: (Finite Diff., Area Emissions, Gas Deposition as lower flux B.C.) (Mass Consistency) (Gas + Aerosol) (2nd Order Int. + Global Mass Correction) (Plume rise and vertical distribution of plume) Gas-Phase Chemistry, SOA formation (Aerosol Activation, Aqueous Chem., cloud/precipitation scavenging, evaporation ) (Nucleation + Condensation, Coagulation, Dry Dep.) ( ISORROPIA and HETV {vectorized SO4 - NO3 - NH4} ) (ADOM-II Mechanism, Odum or Jiang SOA approach Post processing (12 size bins; SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H2O)

31. SO2 oxidation (in-cloud & clear air) – SO2-CO ratio • Both model and observation show a decrease in SO2-to-CO ratio downwind, an indication of SO2 oxidation, but the oxidation seems stronger in model (could be from either or both in-cloud and clear-air oxidation)