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Modern Global Climate Change by Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth. Summary: Ken Hu Critique: Roy Chen. Summary. Abstract of the article.
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Modern Global Climate Changeby Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth Summary: Ken Hu Critique: Roy Chen
Abstract of the article • The article illustrates the relationship between human influences and modern global climate change. It also predicts the future base on the past information and global climate models.
Main Descriptions • Human influences on climate • The resulting temperature and precipitation change • The time scale of response • Important processes involved • Climate models • Observation and information systems
Human Influences on climate • Global Climate change • Regional Climate change
Global Influences change • Greenhouse gases increase • Aerosols are removed
Greenhouse gases increase • Reason(s): Burning of fossil fuels and methane and nitrous oxide from multiple human activities. • For example: Carbon dioxide has increased 31 since preindustrial times • Half of the increase has been since 1965. • Result(s): global warming
Aerosols are removed • Reason(s): Fuel burning • Results(s): 1. Either net cooling or net heating 2. Directly reflecting solar radiation and indirectly by changing the reflective properties of clouds and their lifetime
Regional Climate change • Changing in landuse. • Reason(s): Urbanization and agricultural practices. • For example: Large-scale deforestation and desertification in Amazonia and the Sahel • Result(s): “concrete jungle” and its effects on heat retention, runoff, and pollution, resulting in urban heat islands.
Human influence on global climate affects worldwide • Global warning • Surface moisture • Land-surface drying • More atmospheric water vapor
Human influence on global climate affects regionally • Wild fire • Heat stress • Vegetation changes • Sea level rise
The time scale of response and important processes involved • Human-induced climate change is projected to be much faster than most natural processes. • Freshwater discharges • Greenland and Antarctica may not be stable Raising sea level
Concepts of the climate system • Climate system is complicated • Three major feedback affect the climate system • Water vapor feedback • Cloud feedback • Ice-albedo feedback
Climate models • The primary tools for predicting future climate • Fully coupled, mathematical, computer-base models of physics, chemistry, and biology of the atmosphere, land surface, oceans and cryosphere and their interactions with each other and with the sun and other influences.
Two atmosphere-ocean system • El Niño • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) • El Niño is linked to the global heating • NAO affects the severity of winter temperatures and precipitation in Europe and eastern North America.
Observation and information systems • Simulate the past climate • Comprehensive • Long term climate-related data sets • Observing systems that deliver data free of time-dependent biases • Global monitoring Space-based Surface-based
Conclusion of the article • The article describes that we need better observation and system to project the future global climate change. The climate change is international greatest challenge.
Author Credibility Thomas R. Karl • Director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, in Asheville, N.C • Fellow of the AMS and the American Geophysical union
Kevin E. Trenberth • Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) • Fellow of the American Association for Advancement of Science.
Author Opinions: • Climate change is a global issue. • Human activities alter the climate change. For example, global warming effect that results from the burning fossil fuels (energy uses). • We are entering the unknown with our Climate.
We need improve climate observing in order to analyze the global climate change. • Climate change may be our greatest challenge. We should work together to overcome this challenge (global Cooperation and action.
Paper Strength • Well developed and organized. • First, authors analyze the some factors cause the climate change. • Greenhouse gases emission and landscape change ( from humans activities directly)
Climate change complicated and amplified by water vapor, cloud, Ice-albedo feedback • NAO and El Niño. ( Ocean current systems) • Second, authors discuss the challenges to analyze uncertainty of climate change. • Scientists need to improve observing systems and global simulation model by integrate technologies.
Paper weakness • Authors did not discuss the efforts to stop global warming effect. For instance, U.N global climate treaty. • U.S did not to produce significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming.