Long Term Urban Transport Policy

Long Term Urban Transport Policy Annual India Conference Stanford Center for International Development Stanford University September 28, 2012 Rakesh Mohan Chairman National Transport Development Policy Committee www.transportpolicy.gov.in

Agenda • Expectations for India’s growth over the next twenty years • Implications for urban growth • The present state of urban transport in India • Estimates of infrastructure investment requirements • The future of urban transport in India

4k Rs 70k ($ 1400) 12k 30% 50+ 70+ 40% 25k 485 1300 72% 90% 1.3k Economic growth: Implications (A) Transformed demographics India GDP estimate INR trillion (USD trillion) Urban population estimate (million) 610 370 2030 2010 300 (6.0) % Urban Million+ cities Passenger traffic (bpkm) 85 (1.7) (B) Transformed economic activity 2010 2030 Industrial GDPestimate INR bn (USD bn) 98,325 (2,185) 16,200 (360) Per-capita income estimate INR (USD) Rs 198k ($ 4500) 2030 2010 Coal (mn ton) Oil imports Freight traffic (btkm)

Urban India: 1951 • Only 5 cities with pop > 1m • 41 cities with pop > 0.1m • Much of India in 0.56m villages

Urban India: 2011 • 3 cities with pop > 10m • 53 cities with pop > 1m • 833m live in 0.64m villages

Urban India: 2031 • 6 cities with pop > 10m • 70 cities with pop > 1m • How many Indians will live in towns?

Top 10 cities: 1951 0.1% Land 0.1% 0.1% 8% 8% 8% Population 15% 15% 15% Output

Million+ cities: 53 in 2011 0.2% Land 13% Population Output 32%

Top 100 cities: 2011 Land 0.24% Population 16% Output 43%

Urban sprawl: Delhi 1992 8.7 million 8.7 million 1992

Urban sprawl: Delhi 2000 13.7 million 13.7 million 2000 8.7 million 1992

Urban sprawl: Delhi 2011 16.3 million 16.3 million 2011 13.7 million 2000 8.7 million 1992

Urban sprawl: Bangalore 1992 3.4 million 8.7 million 1992

Urban sprawl: Bangalore 2001 5.7 million 8.7 million 2001 1992

Urban sprawl: Bangalore 2011 5.7 million 2009 8.7 million 2001 1992

Urban transport in India: The scene • A multitude of modes and poor co-ordination between them • Non-motorised transport (walking and bicycling) • Intermediate public transport (rickshaws, taxis and tempos) • Buses and BRT systems • Company buses and vans • Suburban rail-based services and metros • Private motorised modes (cars and two-wheelers) • Much variation in demand and supply distributions over modes across cities

Urban transport in India: The scene • Large cities • Trip rates and travel times are increasing • Significant and growing share of UT through motorised means • Poor air quality and higher levels of GHG emissions • Road fatalities are high and increasing • Pedestrians and cyclists given little consideration in planning

Urban transport in India: The scene • Small cities • Absence of organised public transport • Predominance of intermediate public transport modes • Basic facilities are missing—unpaved roads, drainage, signage • Three-wheelers, motorised two-wheelers, bicycles and walking are major transport modes

Modal shares

Urban transport: The issues • The demand for transport services is a derived demand • Derived from the essential requirement to leave home every day • To be where incomes are earned • To be where education/leisure/shopping may be pursued • Demand for transport is shaped by the geographic distribution of places of residence, employment, trade and other activities • But there are endogenous effects (or systemic feedback) • The availability of transport services determines where people choose to live, work and play

Urban transport in India: The issues • No answers to fundamental questions on transport demand • Lack of good information on travel patterns • Where do which people go and why? • How do people make their transport decisions? • Accessibility? • Mobility and connectedness? • Price? • Speed? • What matters most? What matters least?

Outcomes • Planning and investment decisions based on incomplete data and understanding • Resultant infrastructure may not actually address multi-dimensional transport demands • Little understanding of how planned infrastructure will influence future land use and the shape of the city • Resultant infrastructure may not maximise social welfare or offer maximum economic value for money

Economic issues • Misaligned incentives • Flyovers & urban highways encourage car use • Missing/tedious/dangerous footpaths and road crossings discourage walking and bicycling • Absent intermodal transfer facilities discourage PT use • Mispriced goods and services • Underpriced parking, road and vehicle taxes • Subsidised fuel

Institutional issues • Unclear responsibilities and lack of vertical co-ordination • Mismatches between responsibilities, abilities and resource mobilisation at central, state and municipal levels • Unclear responsibilities and lack of horizontal co-operation • Multiplicity of agencies and service providers at all levels • Lack of inter-modal connectivity • Duplicated services • Insufficient technical capacity at all levels • Transport planners, designers, engineers, and constructors • Safety advisors and auditors

Environmental issues • Safety • Vehicle safety and roadworthiness certifications • Unsafe roads, paths, intersections, urban rail • Overcrowding/overloading • Emissions and energy use • Fuel standards • Vehicle standards • Congestion • Under-consideration of life cycle costs • Costs involved in construction and in ancillary infrastructure and environmental damage not included uniformly in operating cost estimates

Projected infrastructure expenditure: 1. McKinsey Over the next 20 years: Urban infrastructure investment:$1.20tr Urban transport : $590b MRTS : $390b Roads : $200b Water infrastructure : $200b

Projected infrastructure expenditure: 2. Ahluwalia expert committee Crore rupees Over the next 20 years Urban infrastructure: $785b Urban transport : $460b MRTS : $ 90b Roads : $350b Water : $150b

Projected investment estimates: 3. NTDPC sub-group Over the next 20 years Urban transport : $340b MRTS : $150b Roads : $190b

Projected infrastructure expenditure: A comparison

Guiding Principles • Accessible transport for all users: cost, convenience, quality • Minimise UT costs and spending for while improving quality • Empower local governments with decision-making authority and financial/resource mobilisation capacity • When planning transport, consider all public transport modes and look to minimise life-cycle costs

Guiding Principles • •Emphasise improved safety and environmental standards • •Enhance technical capacity at central, state and local levels • •Fiscal regime to influence mode choice at all levels

Building Capacity—Decision making • Essential to develop appropriate technical and decision-making capacity at all levels • Role of centre restricted to: • Advisory and technical • Devise specifications and standards • Develop alternative financial models • Source of funds • State governments should decide policy, administer and enforce laws, and allot funds to cities • Local authorities must develop capacity to: • Plan, design and decide on urban transport networks • Supervise and co-ordinate implementation • Ensure inter-modal connectivity

Building Capacity—Implementation • Upgrade /reorganise ALL delivery agencies associated with urban transport with new mandates • PWD: only construction and maintenance, no mandate for transport planning • Police: only traffic control and law enforcement • New agency: traffic movements and signal operations • New agency: Vehicle inspection and certification

Building Capacity—Educational • Widespread introduction of courses on • Urban management, planning and land use • Transport planning and engineering • Information technology for urban transport • Safety design, methods, devices and auditing • Master’s-level programmes and other courses on urban transport in at least 25 institutions in the country • Greater R&D funding at IITs and regional engineering colleges

Stronger Institutional Framework • Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) • Statutory autonomous body • One UMTA for each city with population exceeding 1 million; dedicated cells in smaller cities • Fund allocation authority for urban transport projects • Authority to coordinate multi-modal transport projects • Three level institutional framework • Level 1: Metropolitan/district planning committee • Level 2: UMTA supported by trained urban transport professionals • Level 3: Existing city agencies to continue as executing agencies

Promoting Public Transport • Increase awareness about environmental damage from personal vehicles • Promote environmentally friendly commuting modes • Multi-modal integration • Physical integration • Network integration • Fare integration • Information integration • Institutional integration

Accessibility of public transport • Door to door planning in terms of time, cost & convenience • Involves 7 main steps • Walk facilities within about 500m of stations/stops • Vehicle access within about 3 km of stations/stops • Feeder service within about 5 km of stations/stops • Drop off & pick up at stations/stops • Park and ride at stations/stops • Land use control around stations/stops • Mandatory implementation of Disability Act

Demand Management • Levy a high parking fee—represents value of land occupied • Allocate parking space to public transport and non-motorized transport on priority • Restricted parking on main transit corridors • Road taxes, vehicle registration fees to be aligned with actual costs of providing urban road infrastructure and resultant negative externalities

Metro Mania • Huge policy and planning emphasis on metro and rail-based UT projects • Most capital-intensive UT option • May not necessarily be beneficial in terms of lifetime energy costs • Internationally, metros introduced at much higher levels of per-capita income • Restrict metros to cities >5mn population • General principle: all UT costs, including metros, to be borne by cities themselves through user charges and fiscal imposts

Walking and Bicycling • India has amongst the highest rates of walking and bicycling • Largely due to low per-capita incomes and not by choice • Despite absence of basic infrastructure and unsafe conditions • Must not be taken for granted • Arrest slide to private motorised modes as incomes rise • Encouragements • Dedicated footpaths and cycle lanes • Safer crossings on priority • Make transfers to bus and rail easy and convenient • Provide bicycle parking

The way forward • Strengthen the existing weak and fragmented institutional framework for urban transport • Rethink land use to minimise transport demand • Promote non-motorised vehicular transport • Improve public transport: bus services, metro, commuter rail • Improve intermediate public transport systems

The message • India’s transport infra spend over the next 20 years driven by: • Overall economic growth • Woeful state of current infrastructure • Increasing urbanisation • Aim to design policy interventions that support establishment of affordable, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound transport systems • Interventions include increased infra spending, new institutions and institutional re-design, increased investment in human capital and R&D, and a multi-modal transport network with compatible incentives

Long Term Urban Transport Policy