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A Look Ahead: Population Projections for Texas and Its Counties

A Look Ahead: Population Projections for Texas and Its Counties. Helen You Texas Demographic Conference Austin, Texas June 2019. Texas Population Projections Program.

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A Look Ahead: Population Projections for Texas and Its Counties

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  1. A Look Ahead: Population Projections for Texas and Its Counties Helen You Texas Demographic Conference Austin, Texas June 2019

  2. Texas Population Projections Program • TDC produces biennial projections of the population of the STATEand all COUNTIESin the state by age, sex and race/ethnicity • The Cohort Component Model • Population(t+k) = Populationt + NatrualIncreaset (Birthst – Deathst ) + Net Migrantst(In-migt – Out-migt) • The components of population change (fertility, mortality, and net migration) are projected separately for each birth cohort (persons born in a given year)

  3. TDC Population Projection Illustration Population 2010 (Ages 0 to 95+) - DEATHS[= Base Population * Projected Death Rates] + NET MIGRANTS [= Base Population * Constant Migration Rates] AGE +1 + BIRTHS[= Women 15 -49 * Projected Fertility rates] Projected Population for 2011 (Base population for 2012 projection)

  4. Additions and Changes to the 2018 Population Projections • Top age expanded to 95+ • Separating NH Asians from NH Other • A total of 5 racial/ethic groups: NH White, NH Black, Hispanic, NH Asian and NH Other • NH Other includes “Two or more Races”, “American Indian”, “Pacific Islander”, and “some other races”) • New migration scenario based on the 2010 – 2015 migration trends • An additional step to “re-allocate” a child’s race/ethnicity • Project fertility by mother’s race/ethnicity • Allocate births based on historical patterns

  5. Projecting Race/Ethnicity of the Newborns Child's (under 17) Race by Mother's Race, 2000 IPUMS Child's (under 17) Race by Mother's Race, 2010 IPUMS

  6. Comparison to the 2014 projection

  7. Projected Components of Change

  8. Projected Components of Change (In Thousands),by Race/Ethnicity

  9. Projected Components of Change (In Thousands),by Race/Ethnicity

  10. Projected Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 20502010-2015 Migration Scenario

  11. Race/Ethnic Composition

  12. Population Pyramids for Texas, 2010 and 2050

  13. Age Composition 2010 2050

  14. Age Composition-continued Changes from 2010 to 2050

  15. County Projections • Births • Projecting age – race specific fertility rates for women at risk (female 15 to 49) by rural/urban status • Projecting race of the newborns • Deaths • Projecting age-sex-race specific mortality/survival rates • Net Migrants • Calculating migration rates 2010-2015 for each county • For smaller population groups (NHB, NHA, Other), collapse age groups • “Special” Population • Group quarter population, college and military population

  16. “Special” Populations – An Example

  17. Projected Percent Population Chang in Texas, 2010 to2050

  18. Top 10 Greatest and Lowest Numeric Change Greatest and Lowest Percent Change

  19. Accessing our Projection Products • Data available for downloads at http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Projections/ • Can be customized using the Population Projections Tool • Interactive maps athttps://demographics.texas.gov/Geography/Maps/Interactive

  20. Limitations • The challenge of projecting the migration components • No simple good predictor • The problem of using “migration rates” migrants / residents at destination ? • The multiple migration scenario approach • Confusing to some users • Why 0.5? • How to define long-term and short-term? • May make sense at the state level, but how about county level? • One migration scenario every two years • Consistent with estimates and reflect the latest trend • Accelerated growth may not hold well in long-term horizon

  21. Future Plans • Multiple migration scenarios if it helps users – call for feedback • One recommended scenario in which migration rates will be trended to start with county rate and then converge to group/region rates • Research better ways to project migration • Form a user review group • We will reach out to you • Please reach out to us, too!

  22. Future Plans • “Special Projections” • School enrollment • Household, work force, • Poverty, disability, vehicle ownership • educational attainment • Obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, physician need

  23. School Enrollment by Age and by Race/ethnicity2017 5-year ACS PUMS

  24. School Enrollment Projection in Texas As the population in Texas grows, so will the number of students enrolled in schools; Enrollees will be more diversified; The increase in the socially disadvantaged minority population have important policy implications for the education system as a whole and for special programs offered at public schools; Projected enrollment by grade and public/private school will be available for download

  25. Thank you! Questions and comments? helen.you@utsa.edu

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