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The outlook for migration to the U.K.

The outlook for migration to the U.K. Presentation for. The Bruges Group. Historical background. Little migration into Britain (other than Irish) until 1950’s Main inflows were: c100,000 Huguenots (c. 2% of existing 4-6 million England population) in the 16 th and 17 th centuries.

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The outlook for migration to the U.K.

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  1. The outlook for migration to the U.K.

  2. Presentation for The Bruges Group

  3. Historical background • Little migration into Britain (other than Irish) until 1950’s • Main inflows were: • c100,000 Huguenots (c. 2% of existing 4-6 million England population) in the 16th and 17th centuries. • c100,000 Ashkenazi Jews (c. 0.25% of existing 40 million UK population) in 19th century. • c70,000 Jews (c. 0.15% of existing 46m UK population) from Nazi Germany in 1930’s. • New Commonwealth immigration of c70,000 – 75,000 p.a. balanced by emigration of British citizens until early 1990’s. Current net inflows are equivalent to about 0.26% of the UK population each year.

  4. Race and immigration have again become important issues for the public Source: MORI: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 04)

  5. Net non-EU migration into the UK‘000’s Source: ONS

  6. Source: ONS

  7. GAD net immigration assumptions – and reality …….the scale of future migration has been consistently underestimated.

  8. Population projections (millions) Source: Natural Change and Principal Projection from GAD. 158k projection derived from GAD principal and high migration projections

  9. Impact of migration • Where do migrants settle? • Impact on London • Impact on housing • Economic impact

  10. International migration to UK Regions 1992 - 2001 Scotland -41,000 (-5%) Northern Ireland -28,000 (-3%) Rest of England 181,000 (21%) Wales +18,000 (2%) London +645,000 (74%) South-East +101,000 (12%) Source: ONS …… three-quarters of all international migrants head to London

  11. Migration flows to and from London Source: London Analytical report – Downing Street Strategy Unit

  12. Homes required 1996-2021 Due to net migration Current plans 3.8million 700,000 (18%) Current migration projections 4.5 million 1.4 million (27%) Migration continues at 158k p.a. 4.85 million 1.75 million (36%) Housing and immigration … in contrast no. of homes planned for 4 development areas in South-East is 803,000. Source: derived from household projections data published by the ODPM

  13. Fiscal impact of migration The Government claim that migrants contribute to the Exchequer £2.5bn more than they take in benefits. But • In the year chosen public accounts were in surplus. Correction for this removes £1.3bn. • Corporation Tax from shareholders resident abroad was wrongly attributed to migrants. Subtract £0.8bn. • No adjustment was made for life cycle costs. • Careful qualifications, repeated six times, in the original Home Office report were ignored. In reality the net fiscal contribution is minimal, if not negative.

  14. Working age to pension age ratio Source: derived from GAD principal and variant projections

  15. Main components of migration • Asylum (c77,000) • Family formation – spouses and fianc(e)es (c50,000) • Work permit employment (c66,000) • Other measures (c 40,000) • Illegal immigration (Figures are MWUK estimates of approx. nos. of net non-EU immigrants in 2002)

  16. Economics of unskilled labour migration • Tax benefit limited (top 10% of taxpayers contribute 50% of revenue). • Must offset costs of infrastructure and congestion costs for these additions to our population. • “Huge amount of evidence that unskilled immigration reduces unskilled wages and increases unskilled unemployment rates. Employers gain from immigration. The unskilled do not”. Professor Lord Layard 20th May 2002 • Aim should be high wage, high productivity economy. Not the opposite.

  17. Economics of skilled labour migration • We should rely primarily on training and re-training native work force. • Temporary need for workers not a reason for large scale permanent immigration. • “It is hard to see a clear pattern of shortage (of skills)…. As a share of the whole workforce the number of unfilled (skilled vacancies) is around 0.6% The Economist 7 Feb 04 • Must offset costs of extra infrastructure and congestion.

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