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UFORE. Overview and Process. Overview & Process I. What is UFORE? Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values Collection of analysis tools More at www.ufore.org Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems. Overview & Process. Ecosystem

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ufore

UFORE

Overview and Process

overview process i
Overview & Process I
  • What is UFORE?
    • Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values
    • Collection of analysis tools
    • More at www.ufore.org
    • Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems
overview process
Overview & Process
  • Ecosystem
    • “Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and cultural (anthropogenic) components”
    • Includes all trees
      • Public/private
      • Native/exotic/”utopian”
    • No management of individuals, but we can and--many believe--must manage the population
    • Population contributes to common good at much reduced cost/benefit ratio than street trees
overview process1
Overview & Process
  • Status of UFORE
    • Fully operational as program
      • Over 10 years in development
      • FS Syracuse: running in SAS code
        • Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader
        • Programmer: Dan Crane
      • Being converted to desktop app (Windows)
      • Conversion work occupy next few years
    • Major advance for i-Tree
      • UFORE shell: makes projects much easier
overview process2
Overview & Process
  • Calculates
    • Structure, e.g.
      • Leaf area and biomass
      • Species and DBH distribution
    • Function, e.g.
      • VOC emissions
      • Pollution removal
      • Effect on building energy use
      • Total carbon stored
    • Value based on structure, function
sounds like stratum
Sounds like STRATUM…
  • Similarities
    • Similar questions
      • Structure, function, value
      • Implications for management
    • Similar goals
  • Differences
    • Different populations
      • STRATUM: street trees
      • UFORE: whole ecosystem
    • Some differences in methods,often b/c of differing populations
overview process3
Overview & Process
  • What good is it?
    • Aid planning and management
    • Improve forest designs
    • Project future impacts
    • Assess impact of catastrophic events
    • Justify programs
overview process4
Overview & Process
  • How does it work?
    • Uses field data to calculate structure
    • Uses structure data to calculate function
    • Uses function data to calculate value
    • Uses value data to draw conclusions and make recommendations
  • The Devil lurks, as always, in the details
3 questions
3 questions
  • Ask when evaluating models:
    • Do I understand the numbers?
    • Can I trust the numbers?
    • Can I use the numbers?
  • I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”
overview process vi
Overview & Process VI
  • Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON
  • Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH

¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to the growth of the whole

  • Convert with species-specific factor:

above-ground biomass  whole tree biomass

slide17

Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass

http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr05afinal.pdf

overview process vi1
Overview & Process VI
  • Adjustments
    • 80% less biomass for open-grown urban trees than computed
      • Based on field measurements of 30 urban trees in Chicago
      • Nowak 1994 publication (Chicago study)
  • How much of biomass is carbon?
    • Stored C biomass x 0.5
      • Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al
slide19

Is this too MUCH??!!

http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/FLClipart/Adjectives/heavy.gif

overview process vi2
Overview & Process VI
  • Use growth and mortality rates for annual
    • Start with published and/or field data for each species and DBH class
    • Adjust growth (C storage) for
      • Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street)
      • Growing season length
      • Condition of tree
    • Adjust mortality (C release) for
      • % of condition class
      • Rapid release (above ground, populated areas)
      • Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)
  • Growth - Mortality  net annual C storage
overview process vi3
Overview & Process VI
  • Value
    • Multiply net annual stored C by $20.30/tC
      • Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).
      • Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global warming research/debate as random variables.
      • Provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated.
      • This dollar amount was projection for 2000.
    • “Rough order-of-magnitude assessment”
what s the point
What’s the point?!
  • We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers
  • Because of that, we can use the numbers
    • Advocacy
    • Strategic planning
    • Action
  • UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.
slide24

U4

Areme?