Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE) and its “so-called” sentinel lakes

1. Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE) and its “so-called” sentinel lakes Ray Valley and Don Pereira

3. THE “So-Called” CONTEXT

5. If we rely on speculation regarding why this lake is impaired rather because we don’t have long-term datasets, we occupy the invisible present

6. If we focus exclusively on what we can put in the lake to “clear it up” and not deal with watershed-scale impacts, we occupy the invisible place

7. SLICE - Revealing the Invisible Present and Place

8. The Sentinel Lakes

9. Talk Outline • The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program • The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection • The How - Data collection activities and partnerships • The So What – Preliminary Findings

10. Talk Outline • The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program • The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection • The How - Data collection activities and partnerships • The So What - Lessons learned

11. “Glacieresque” Transformations of the 21st Century

12. Source: Startribune Shoreline Transformations

13. Watershed Transformations

14. Hydrological Transformations

15. Human accelerators of species spread

16. Climate Change J. Jaschke

17. Consequences on Resilience • Cumulative impacts of stressors • Stressors to watersheds • Ditching, draining, channeling, • Impervious surface • Withdrawing & damming • Alterations to lakes • Overharvest/Overstocking • Removal of structure • Disturbance from watercraft • Time Lags • Hysteresis – “can’t go back” • Positive feedbacks Cumulative impacts of stressors System “state” Scheffer and Carpenter 2003

18. Reality Bites! In a lot of systems there’s no “going back.” Our expectations and management approach for these systems should be different for systems largely “intact”

19. Enter SLICE – informing expectations and appropriate mgt responses We ask: • In highly altered systems, how can we realistically improve water quality and provide a self-sustaining recreational fishery? • In high integrity systems, what watershed and in-lake factors are contributing to their resilience, and how can we keep those resilience mechanisms intact? • Early Detection and Rapid Response indicators What indicators tell us “all is not well” and indicate whether our responses are making a difference?

20. Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment (SLICE) • Program aims to: • Timely detect change to habitat conditions and species population communities • Understand and project what is/will come into our lakes (watershed modeling) • Understand and project the ultimate fate of external and internal loads (limnological modeling) • Facilitate structured decision-making and adaptive management

21. Talk Outline • The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program • The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection • The How - Data collection activities and partnerships • The So What - Lessons learned

22. Phase 1 (Pilot; 2008-2011): • Pilot phase • Establish network of sentinel lakes • Partnership and infrastructure building • Independent research projects to assess specific questions • Indicator ID Eating the elephant one bite at a time! chrisnierhaus.com

23. Economists use a large number of indicators to gage the “health” of the economy

24. Lakes should be no different • Maximum depth of vegetation growth • Growing Degree Days • Temperature at Dissolved Oxygen = 3 mg/L • Density of Daphnia > 1 mm long • Fish Index of Biotic Integrity • Proportion of lake volume conducive to growth of coolwater fish • Proportion of warm water species guilds in net catches • Total Phosphorus • Frequency of occurrence of curly-leaf pondweed • Catch per effort of common carp • Bluegill age at maturation • Catch per effort of large largemouth bass • Proportion of microcystis algae to chl a • Proportion of lake volume that is hypoxic • Aquatic Plant Index of Biotic Integrity • Secchi water clarity

25. Phase 1 (Pilot; 2008-2011): • Pilot phase • Establish network of sentinel lakes • Partnership and infrastructure building • Independent research projects to assess specific questions • Indicator ID • Phase 2 (2012-2016) • Using lessons learned in Pilot to guide operational program Eating the elephant one bite at a time! chrisnierhaus.com

26. Adaptive Management Process Phase 1: Oct – Jan 2006/2007 Phase 2 Assess problem Phase 1 Op plan Adjust Design May-Jun 2007 Evaluate Implement Monitor Apr. 2008 2008-2011

27. Experimental Design

28. Three R’s of Statistical Study Design • Realism • Randomization • Representation Population Sample Inference

29. Objective of SLICE:Annual inference of status and trends in lake indicators at the Landscape Scale

30. SLICE Design = “Split-Panel”

31. Panel 1: Sentinel Lakes (2008 - ) • Stratified sampling design • Figurative Approach: “6-in wide, 1 mile deep” • Monitoring system-wide changes at a fine temporal resolution in a small number of systems spread across the state • Tracking coherent dynamics (e.g., are things behaving similarly across large scales?) • Cause-effect inference • Forecast modeling w/ cont. verification Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = The network of sentinel lakes

32. Panel 2: “Random” surveys (2013 - ) • Stratified – Random (Strata = Landtype) • Approach: “1 Mile-wide 6” deep” • Focus is on maximizing lakes sampled, minimal time spent at each one. • Combination with Sentinel panel is powerful for robust inference of status across time and space • Will focus on utilizing datasets from other ongoing monitoring programs Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = Group of Lakes

33. Sentinel Lake Selection

34. Sentinel Lake Selection intent: evaluate status and trends over a gradient of lake conditions 1. Landtype x 4 2. Mixing x 2 3. P-Concentration x 3

35. Other considerations with final candidate pool • PCA “reference” lake • Other historical datasets • Paleolimnology • Rich lake survey history • Unique partnership opportunities • Active local water monitoring programs

36. Sentinel Lake Characteristics (ranges)

37. Talk Outline • The Why - History, motivations, and aims of program • The What - Program design and sentinel lake selection • The How - Data collection activities and partnerships • The So What - Lessons learned

39. What we’re measuring Aquatic Plants Fish

40. Research Questions & Partnerships • Merging of aspects of DNR, PCA, and SNF lake survey programs (operational funds) • Super-sentinel research • “What if” modeling of landscape and climate change on water quality and oxythermal habitat in three lakes (Carlos, Elk, Trout) • ENTF funded w/ USGS match • USGS (PI Dr. Richard Kiesling) • Reconstruction of water quality and correlations to past climate cycles and land use changes • Cold water sentinel lakes • SCWRS (PI Dr. Mark Edlund) • ENTF funded

41. Research Questions & Partnerships • Cisco population assessment methods and biology • Evaluation of hydroacoustic sampling tools • UMD (PI Dr. Tom Hrabik) • ENTF funded • Indicator research project • signal:noise ratio • best survey methods for robust snapshot of status • Aspects of entire lake ecosystem measured • Game and Fish Fund, Fed-Aid reimbursement

42. “If you build it, they will come” • A platform for interdisciplinary study of lakes • Independent “off-shoot” projects focused on: • Cold-water fish and habitat • Historical reconstructions of water quality and zooplankton • Zooplankton patterns • Groundwater-surface water interactions • “Free” Analysis off of our “Free” data • Projects, investigators, lakes involved, and contact info is being tracked on SLICE web page

43. Serendipity: Curly-leaf pondweed case study • Been here for 100 years • Widespread throughout S and central MN and moving north. • Grows under ice and needs some winter light • Can grow abundantly and form mats early in spring in nutrient-rich lakes • In warm nutrient-rich lakes, dies off by early summer and algae blooms typically follow. • Expected to benefit from shorter winters and earlier springs

45. Growing Degree Days Departure from Normal Expectation: 2010 should have been a gangbuster CLP year

46. WRONG!

50. In Conclusion… • SLICE is unveiling the invisible present and place • Preparing for rather than reacting to change • Situational awareness – detecting change quickly and the scale its occurring • Sentinel Lakes as ongoing sites of learning and a platform for interdisciplinary explorations