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Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK FOR 2009/10 AMT PRETORIA 1 October 2009. Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation. Nino areas. La Nina (2007/08). El Nino (2006/07). Outlook for rest of Season. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. Nino 3.4. South America.

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Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

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  1. CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK FOR 2009/10 AMT PRETORIA 1 October 2009 Johan van den Berg SANTAM Agriculture

  2. ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation

  3. Nino areas

  4. La Nina (2007/08)

  5. El Nino (2006/07)

  6. Outlook for rest of Season

  7. Nino 3.4

  8. Nino 3.4

  9. Nino 3.4

  10. Nino 3.4

  11. South America Australia Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif

  12. El Nino La Nina

  13. El Nino La Nina

  14. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  15. Outlook 2008/09 (3 October 2008 AMT – last year) Wet Dry Wet Dry Non event

  16. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  17. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina Cyclone activity

  18. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  19. Sea surface temperatures

  20. Tropical Cyclone – Top view L H H

  21. 1982/83 1982/83

  22. 1991/92 1991/92

  23. 2006/07 2006/07

  24. 1997/98

  25. Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall

  26. September to November – El Nino developing

  27. December to February – El Nino

  28. December tot February – La Nina (2007/08 and 2008/09)

  29. Probability for at least 20mm of rain (in total per) 10 day period Long term average vs 2009/10

  30. Bredasdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  31. Humansdorp: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  32. Graaff-Reinet: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  33. Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  34. Delareyville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  35. Upington: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  36. Bothaville: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period 2009/10 Average

  37. Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Average 2009/10

  38. Otjiwarongo Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 day period Gemiddeld 2009/10

  39. Maize production for 2009/10

  40. Indicators for maize production 1. Soil moisture – favourable to ensure good plantings conditions if 20-50mm rain occur before planting date 2. Rain in winter and early spring enabled most farmers to do initial soil preparation very early – ensure that rainfall in pre-plant period can be stored 3. Favourable outlook for 50m to 100mm rain still to come in October/November

  41. Indicators maize production… 4. El Nino effect – dry/hot conditions November-January 5. Western production areas (Free State and Northwest) will most probably be hardest hit 6. Eastern production areas – near normal 7. Tropical cyclones/depressions in February can cause problems 8. Very small reduction in area expected in spite of low prices

  42. Indicators maize production …. 9. RSA maize crop: 9.1 Irrigation 220 000 -250 000 ha under irrigation 12t/ha = 2.5-3.0 million ton 9.2 Rainfed 2.0 million ha 2.5 t/ha = 5 million ton 9.3 Total (worst case scenario) = 7.5 to 8 million tons

  43. Indicators maize production …. 11. Frost - Very high probability for frost damage before 10 April and even before 31 March 2010 – El Nino 12. Price risk more important than production risk – long term average yields not sufficient at current prices to cover input cost

  44. Indicators natural grazing ……. • Rain in Oct/Nov can result in relative favourable conditions for first part of summer • Dry midsummer but especially dry March/April – problems for winter of 2010 • Below normal rainfall for season in total as well as below normal rainfall in critical months of March/April can cause problems for 2010/2011 - lag effect

  45. Indicators wheat production • Free State – October rain • Rain damage possible for Southern Cape in October/November • Frost damage?

  46. Indicators El Nino • High probability to last until at least March/April 2010 • Turning point – February 2010 • Moderate El Nino – 2oC deviation in Nino 3.4 (moderate El Nino sometimes more severe effect than very strong El Nino 1997/98) • Sideways in August/September – inhibit probabilities somewhat • El Nino vs tropical cyclones

  47. Laat ek die Leeuloop nou stap vir stap verduidelik

  48. Haai julle, check daa – dis ‘n leeu!

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