The Evidence

1. CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES The Evidence Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com

2. The Evidence The Basics The Facts The Observations The Credibility Factor Last Thoughts

3. The Basics

4. The “Climate System” consists of 5 elements, all interconnected • Atmosphere--all systems within Earth’s gravity above the surface of the planet • Hydrosphere--oceans, lakes, rivers • Biosphere--all things living on Earth • Cryosphere--ice • Geosphere--soil and rock

5. The Climate

6. In any given year, tens of billions of tons of carbon move between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere. Human activities add about 5.5 billion tons per year of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

7. Anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases • Carbon Dioxide = CO2 : • fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes • Methane = CH4 : • livestock, rice, landfills, natural gas • Nitrous Oxide = NO2 : • commercial agriculture, land use changes • Ozone = O3 : • at surface, interacts to form GHGs • Halocarbons = CFC, HFC, etc., : • refrigerants, fire retardents

8. US Anthropogenic GHG Emission Sources

9. Important GHG and Sources

10. Natural greenhouse gases Water Vapor 36-70% • Carbon Dioxide = CO2 • Methane = CH4 • Nitrous Oxide = NO2 • Ozone = O3 30-64%

12. Methane Cycle

13. What is “the greenhouse effect”?

14. The Facts

15. Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa

16. Fossil Fuels Arrive

17. Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000 years of temperature and greenhouse gas data

18. Atmospheric CO2 Projections Text

19. The Observations

20. Baffin Island 5th Largest island in the world Located just west of Greenland Ice cap has shrunk 50% over last 50 years and will be gone by 2050University of Colorado Boulder

21. Greenland • 25% size of USA • 80% covered by ice sheet • 5% of all world ice, if melted = 21 feet global sea level rise Summer ice melt in 2007 exceeded previous record of 2005 by 10%.

22. Glacier Park The Montana park has 26 named glaciers today, down from 150 in 1850. Those that remain are typically mere remnants of their former frozen selves

23. Argentina

24. Average Arctic Sea ice extent in September 2007 was the lowest on record, shattering the previous record of 2005 by 23%. Arctic will likely be ice-free in summer by 2030.

25. Roughly twice as many hurricanes are now reported in the Atlantic compared to a century ago. The increase is associated with rises in sea-surface temperature. National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. In both the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the duration of tropical cyclones as well as their strongest wind speeds have both increased by about 50% over the past 50 years. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

27. The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide nearly doubled from the early 1970s to the early 2000s. Georgia Institute of Technology and NCAR

28. Why do we believe the climate is changing? The globe is warming. Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures today are about 0.75ºC warmer than at the beginning of the 20th Century. Rates of temperature rise are greater in recent decades. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

31. Climate Change i.e. Global Warming does not mean that equal and even changes will be observed everywhere rising sea level increase drought melting polar regions increase rain glacial retreat altered agriculture species ranges storm intensity/frequency disease ranges

33. The Credibility Factor

34. Expertise Most Reliable Truth Professional organizations Statements that contradict normal bias “Science” Peer-reviewed science “Nature” Proceedings from Nat Acad Science Universities Petitions Think tanks Advocacy groups Individual professional Individual layperson Least Reliable Bias Support for my beliefs

35. U.S. scientists and economists call for swift and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.... • More than 1,700 scientists and economists • 6 Nobel Prize winners • 30 members of National Academy of Sciences • 10 members of National Academy of Engineering • 10 recipients of MacArthur Fellowship • over 100 members of Intergovernmental Panel on CLimate Change (IPCC co-winner of 2007 Nobel Peace Prize)

36. American Association for the Advancement of Science >144,000 members 150+ years old “The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shift in species ranges, and more.” Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

37. American Association for the Advancement of Science “The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.” Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

38. American Association for the Advancement of Science “ Delaying action to address climate change will increase the environmental and social consequences as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle climate change, the harder and more expensive the task will be.” Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

39. National Academy of Sciences >2,100 members >200 Nobel Prizes 146 years old “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action.” Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005

40. National Academy of Sciences • “We call on world leaders to: • Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and increasing, and • Recognize that delayed action will increase the risk of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a greater cost” • Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005

41. Regarding climate change, what we now have is the peer-reviewed equivalent of the American Medical Association declaring that smoking is bad for you. At the time, some doctors disagreed....

42. And now, we also have corporations presenting “contradictory” positions US Climate Action Partnership Shell BP Conoco Phillips Ford GM Chrysler GE Dupont PGE Alcoa Caterpillar Deere & Co Duke Energy NRG Energy, Inc Siemens Xerox Dow Chemical

43. US Climate Action Partnership A group of businesses and leading environmental organizations that have come together to call on the federal government to quickly enact strong national legislation to require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions

44. Dateline January 15, 2009 Washington, D.C. This morning the US Climate Action Partnership released its Blueprint for Legislative Action. “The United States faces an urgent need to reinvigorate our nation’s economy, enhance energy security and take meaningful action to slow, stop and reverse GHG emissions to address climate change.”

45. Dateline January 15, 2009 Washington, D.C. “USCAP agrees that the science is sufficiently clear to justify prompt action to protect our environment. Each year of delayed action to control emissions increases the risk of unavoidable consequences that could necessitate even steeper reductions in the future, with potentially greater economic cost and social disruption.”

46. Last Thoughts “No one will be immune, but climate change will have a disproportionate effect on the lives of people living in poverty in developing countries. Between 1990 and 1998, 94 per cent of the world’s 568 major natural disasters, and more than 97 per cent of all natural disaster-related deaths, were in developing countries.” Oxfam Policy Paper on Climate Change

47. Last Thoughts “Now is the time for followers of Christ to help solve the global warming crisis. There is overwhelming evidence that human activity is a major cause, and we know that the impacts of climate change would be hardest on the poor and vulnerable, and on future generations.” Evangelical Climate Initiative

48. Next in the Climate Change Series.... The Arguments January 25 at 9 and 10:30 AM January 29 at 7 PM Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com