A key part of the environmental scans we conduct for organisations and industries, and the research analysis that we are commissioned to conduct involves identifying and tracking emerging trends.
Here we’ve compiled the Top 7 Trends to watch in 2013. It’s no longer enough to just observe the changing times, business leaders have to understand the shifts and be prepared ahead of times to respond to the changes.
Trend 1: Big Australia
Our nation hits 23 million, having doubled in less than 50 years.
Trend 2: Tween Town
The emergence of the 8-12 year old consumers, a $1 billion market.
Trend 3: Student-preneur
Today’s school leavers will have 17 jobs across 5 careers and likely be self employed at some point.
Trend 4: Smart Shopper
Transformations in what we buy, where we buy, how we buy and when we buy.
Trend 5: Localisation
The return to local, the rise of community and the refocus on connection.
Trend 6: XYZ Schools
Gen X parents and school leaders, Gen Y teachers, Gen Z students – generational change transforms education.
Trend 7: Real World Relational
How technology is facilitating offline relationships and bringing back face to face.
more at www.mccrindle.com.au
McCrindle Research: Know the Times.
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In July 2013, Australia’s population will exceed 23 million. TREND 1: Big Australia dotted with popular new enterprises, including creative food Having doubled since 1966, this rise is fuelled by an increase kiosks usually associated with New York or Los Angeles. FAST FACTS AUSTRALIA in birth rate, life expectancy and migration. These factors have allowed Australia to grow at a rate of 1.6% per year, above With Australia’s increasing population also comes the world average of 1.1%. Not only is Australia the fastest greater influence in the global arena. As our growing OECD nation, but its population is increasing faster economy maintains stability, Australia is a than Indonesia, India, and Malaysia. key place to invest and foster businesses. AT 23 MILLION This presents challenges and opportunities for Australians. A larger population can place greater strain on our infrastructure, increase our environmental impact, and create Australia’s biggest city: Sydney Cities between 4 - 5m a new level of social complexity. These potential problems can 4.7m 5.1m 4.8m 4.7m 4.6m 4.5m 4.4m 4.1m 4.1m Singapore: make the prospect of a ‘Big Australia’ daunting for many. European biggest city: London St Petersburg: 19m The diversity that comes with population growth presents Alexandria (Egypt): many benefits for Australians. We are spoilt for choice in USA’s biggest city: New York Milan: where we shop, in what we eat, in who we interact with. 22m Barcelona: Our social identity is enriched and enlivened, and in turn our Asia biggest city: Tokyo Berlin: quality of life improves. 37.7m Seattle: China’s biggest city Guangzhou Cape Town: The vibrant urban cultures of Australia’s big cities, such as Sydney and Melbourne illustrate the positive effects that a 25.6m large, diverse population can bring. These “global” cities 1.6% 0.5% Australia’s annual population growth rate: boast a wide range of cafes, restaurants, performance venues China’s annual population growth rate: and cultural attractions. The cities’ streets are becoming
Tweens are those aged 8 to 12, “in-between” childhood TREND 2: TWEEN TOWN Tweens are greatly influenced by celebrities. and adolescence. They are the children of Generation X. The Olsen twins were pioneers in catering Tweens have emerged as their own demographic, and for tweens. are now seen as brand influencers, a consumer segment, and a target market. Since then, personalities including Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber have developed In the past, tween girls have been the predominant focus sophisticated methods of connecting with for media and marketers. However, we are now seeing tweens, hosting their own e-stores that an array of products targeting tween boys. Focusing on sell fashion and cosmetic items to this demographic is surprisingly lucrative. Despite their this age group. lack of income, Australian tweens are a one billion dollar consumer force: the average 8 year-old receives $10.68 The relatively new world of in pocket money a week, increasing to $21.36 for the ‘tweendom’ is evidence of average 12 year-old. the up-ageing of today’s emerging generations. Social media has been integral to the development These young people have of tween identity. Many tweens are actively engaging access to more technology, on sites, uploading their own YouTube videos and information, and external influences connecting with friends on Facebook. Many websites are than any generation before them. targeted specifically at this demographic. Tweens can create virtual pets, play dress-ups, and interact with other people their age online.
TREND 2: TWEEN TOWN FAST FACTS Numbers of 8-12 year olds: 1,387,130 (larger than the city of Adelaide [1.2m]) Number of 6-12 year olds: 1,949,443 (more people than thestate of South Australia [1.67m]) Today’s tweens – Gen Z, are the children of Gen X. They are the first generation who are wholly born and raised in the 21st Century. They are the most global connected, tech savvy, materially endowed, and formally educated generation ever. Pocket Money $10.68 - $21.36 per week which equates to a total of $1.08 billion for Australian tweens per year.
TREND 3: Student-preneur Gone are the days of Australian students earning entrepreneurial generation. They are responsive preneurs’ may also use their university connections their money from paper runs. As one of the top to global trends and innovative ways to increase to further market and distribute their products or countries for years spent in education, Australia’s profits. ‘Student-preneurs’ are more likely than services. students are looking for creative ways to use their other demographics to use the internet as a way to skills and make a profit where study prevents them develop, market, and sell their businesses. ‘Student- As Australia’s students spend longer in tertiary from full-time employment. preneurship’ begins the journey of what will be an education, this emerging trend is one way in ongoing reality for many of today’s students that which younger generations are employing their This generation is not interested in jobs that do not they will be self-employed at some point. technological savvy to great effect, as a means serve their future career paths. Many work part-time to financially support themselves and express in the retail, service and technology sectors. As Universities themselves have a significant role themselves creatively. Gen Ys and Zs, today’s students are technological to play in aiding ‘student-preneurs’. Students natives. Always connected via social networking intentionally use the knowledge and skills gained and other online media, this generation of students from their degrees in their business ventures. now has the means to start up businesses from their Universities are responding to this, developing small bedrooms. business courses and entrepreneurial education programs. Recently, some universities have held Contrary to Australia’s traditionally risk-averse entrepreneurship competitions with cash prizes to culture, our university students are part of a heavily help business plans get off the ground. ‘Student-
TREND 3: Student-preneur FAST FACTS 2,132,412 – trading business Australia of which 1,305,024 don’t have any employees. That’s 61% of all businesses. Almost 1 in 3 (29%) Australian businesses have revenue of less than 50K per year. 54% of businesses that began 4 years ago are no longer operating, but this does not mean they all failed: for student-preneurs, these businesses were only designed to last through their university years, and offer some earnings, and some experience.
Australians are shopping ‘smarter’ than ever before. Strategies to save money TREND 4: Smart Shopper or secure a bargain are a common part of today’s consumer culture. Puchasing non-mainstream brands and getting discounts for goods and services is no longer “cheap” shopping, but “smart” shopping. Discount sites such as GroupOn and Spreets have experienced a spike in popularity, owing in part to an unstable global market following the economic down-turn. Consumers are turning to store brands or ‘private label’ brands, which now fill the shelves of our supermarkets. Bulk buying is also on the rise, and supermarkets have responded to this trend with basic goods now available in larger units, and wholesale warehouses like Costco having gained popularity. Smartphones are becoming an indispensible tool for the smart shopper. Traditional stores must now not only contend with the growth of online shopping, but with consumers comparing prices, checking reviews and consulting with friends and family on-line, all while browsing a store’s aisles. Australians are actively using their smartphones and tablets in these “showrooming” activities to save money. Generation Y exemplifies this trend: 46% have used their device in-store to enter model numbers or compare prices, 31% have used a scanner or barcode app to compare prices with other stores; and 48% have taken a photo of a product to compare with online stores. Just over 2 in 5 have accessed consumer blogs or online discussions while shopping, and 3 in 5 have taken a photo of a product to get a second opinion from friends or family. Smart shopping is a trend that shows no signs of slowing any time soon!
Many Australians are now returning to the local shopping TREND 5: LOCALISATION owners who are able to provide personal advice strip, and investing into their local businesses. and source goods to meet their customers’ needs. Australia has also seen a growing number of farmers’ This resurgence is partly due to re-investment by owners, and street markets, where consumers are able to local councils and government policies to counteract connect directly with producers. the effects of urban sprawl of our major cities. The convenience, expression of local culture, personal In this era of resurgent communities, there has been a connections and open-air environment provided by local change to shopping habits, and growth in the more regular shops hold lasting appeal. “top-up” shop compared to the once-a-week “trolley-fill” shop. The local stores are the preferred option for the These are qualities that the expanding online retail sector, quick and frequent top-up shop. large chains and shopping centres are unable to duplicate. Local shops are also responding to Australia’s ‘smart The local shopping strip offers products and services shopping’ trend, providing vouchers and discounts via that invest directly back into the local community, and online sites like GroupOn. contributes to a sense of identity and belonging for its residents. Shopping locally is a social experience. Shopping strips not only offer local cafes, take-away food, fresh groceries, and bakeries, but also hairdressers, tax accountants, doctors, pharmacy and clothing stores. Such diversity and specialisation provides a vibrant community space for local residents, and fosters a sense of belonging. Many Australians see the value of investing into the local community, and appreciate the relationships that are built with other community members, as well as business
Today’s students are constantly connected through TREND 6: XYZ SCHOOLS Retaining new teachers is a challenge when they have ever-advancing technology and social media. The a multi-career outlook.The average Gen Yer works education sector is responding to this by tailoring for only 3 years per employer. New methods of curriculums and classroom strategies to address the engagement need to be developed to ensure challenges and opportunities presented by this shift. that this emerging generation of educators gain career experience and growing The emphasis on project-based assessments and in their skills. increased ‘real-world’ connections are evidence of Australia carrying its education systems into the 21st Education for Gen Z is about social century. Collaboration is highly encouraged, and connection, collaboration, ease of schools have prioritised communication skills as a major access and real-world applications. focus area. Schools are experimenting with school times, and relying more Today’s school communities are comprised of Gen X on interactive social media parents, Gen Y teachers and Gen Z students. Gen X technology and flexible parents were shaped at the start of the computer era, learning spaces. and while generally not highly technologically savvy, they are keen to see their children absorb the ever- Australia’s schools are increasing world of technology while also seeing them demonstrating a trend towards grow in literacy, numeracy and social skills. replicating elements of our ever- connected social lifestyles in The challenge for schools is to attract and retain curriculums and teaching Generation Y teachers and staff members. In a sector methods, so that education is with an ageing workforce, and with record numbers of congruent with 21st century life, school age students in our population, the demand for rather than a step back in time. these emerging teachers is higher than ever.
Social relationships are timeless and integral to the formation of community. TREND 7: Real World Relational demonstrated. Emerging generations have been socially networking since They have a bearing on our behaviours, attitudes and emotions. New social their pre-teens, from instant messaging, to Myspace, Facebook, and Twitter. media has expanded and altered the way we relate, and has made the world Smartphones have added further flexibility, so that these generations are seem much smaller. Connecting with others online is quick and simple, but constantly connecting with current trends and issues. comes with its drawbacks. Online interaction can deprive us of ‘real-world’ connections and foster increased interactions yet reduced friendships. New platforms are being used to galvanise people into action or interaction, whether it be to unite for a political cause or to form a flash mob, or to create In contrast to traditional identity markers of culture, gender and place, an interest group. Online social media allows for greater breadth of connection, our online social identities are defined by our lifestyle choices and media used as a tool to assist our deeper ‘real-world’ interactions. consumption. We are able to interact with people irrespective of location. In turn, our interaction with others online is tempered by scepticism, as it is relatively simple for anyone to create a false or misleading identity. Australians are now responding to our reliance on our online social world, seeking more real-world interactions. Online technology is used as a tool to facilitate these relationships. In the business world, we’re seeing face-to-face meetings instead of just webinars or video-conferencing. New technologies are responding to our desire for real-world connection by ‘augmenting reality’. The barriers between the online and the real-world are breaking down. Shops are encouraging consumers to interact via social media on their smartphones while in-store. Interaction by users can ‘enhance’ advertisements and encourage participation. These new technologies connect the limitless online realm with our tangible, every-day lives. YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and the like are enabling a new kind of activism, where information can be spread to an entire movement of people by simply posting a status or uploading a video, as the ‘Occupy’ movements
ABOUT MCCRINDLE RESEARCH McCrindle Research is one of the Asia Pacific region’s most renowned research agencies, commissioned by government and commercial organisations to conduct demographic, market, social and generational research to help them observe the changing times, understand the emerging trends, and strategically respond to the shifts. email@example.com