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Counter-Intuitive Systems Engineering

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Counter-Intuitive Systems Engineering
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  1. Counter-Intuitive Systems Engineering Tunneling Through The Cost Barrier

  2. We are taught… Cost Performance

  3. We are taught… Cost Performance

  4. Example: Change the light bulbs to CFL • Save: 75W each • Cost: $10 each • Net: $133 / kW saved • Life: 1000 h • Savings: 75 kWh • Cost of savings: $0.075 / kWh

  5. We are taught… Cost Performance

  6. But then somebody… Cost Performance

  7. Perhaps… Cost Performance

  8. New reality: “tunneling through the cost barrier” Cost Performance

  9. Change the light bulbs to CFL • Save: 75W each • Cost: $10 each • Net: $133 / kW saved • Life: 1000 h • Savings: 75 kWh • Cost of savings: $0.075 / kWh

  10. But what if I own the Power Plant?

  11. But what if I own the Power Plant? • A dozen light bulbs = 1 kW • $100 / light bulb Honda eu3000is = $2000 Honda eu2000= $800

  12. Re-Define the System Boundary

  13. Re-Define the System Boundary

  14. Re-Define the System Boundary

  15. How is Breakthrough Possible? • The cost/benefit curve is discontinuous • Continuous-process methods (i.e. incremental improvement) won’t find breakthroughs • You have to “jump the track”

  16. How is Breakthrough Possible? • Techniques for jumping the track: • Multitasking • Muda-Elimination • Teleology

  17. How is Breakthrough Possible? • Techniques for finding it: • Multitasking • Muda-Elimination • Teleology

  18. Multitasking • Container steel

  19. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes?

  20. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure?

  21. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • It’s done in cars!

  22. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • SKJOLD’s Insulation

  23. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • SKJOLD’s Insulation • Air conditioning in winter in Norway!

  24. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • SKJOLD’s Insulation • Air conditioning in winter in Norway! • (Maybe they went too far?)

  25. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • SKJOLD’s Insulation • Amory Lovins’ house

  26. Multitasking • Container steel • Structural pipes? • Conductive Structure? • SKJOLD’s Insulation • Amory Lovins’ house • The second root is a Colorado home with no furnace

  27. How is Breakthrough Possible? • Techniques for finding it: • Multitasking • Muda-Elimination • Teleology

  28. Real life is like this:

  29. To get One out requires Three in Source: EIA 2009

  30. Another example: The Heating Plant • Large complex system required to generate domestic heat • Simultaneously other systems are cooling components to minimize heat • Can I reduce the heat NEED far enough to ELIMINATE the heating plant?

  31. Heating & Cooling Heat Fuel Engine Heat Torque Alternator Electricity Reefer Plant Cold Heat CIC Heat Cooking Heating Hot Water

  32. Heating & Cooling Heat Fuel Engine Heat Torque Alternator Electricity Reefer Plant Cold Heat Heat CIC Heat Cooking Heating Hot Water

  33. Amory’s House Snowmass CO. (Near Aspen) 7,000 feet above sea level

  34. Amory’s house This room is the "furnace" for the building. This 900-square-foot space, plus the heat gain from the other windows, lights, appliances, and people, provides all the heat that's needed for the entire building most of the year. The heat is stored in the masonry, the floor, the water, and the earth under the house. Because of the building's huge thermal capacity, heat is stored for months, not just hours. Heat captured in September may be used in December. Two wood stoves are available for additional heating duty, but they are generally used only on very cold winter mornings.

  35. Amory’s house • By reducing the DEMAND • And MINIMIZING THE WASTE • Dr. Lovins ELIMINATED THE HEATING PLANT

  36. Amory’s House • Most the impact of being super-green was to leave things out, not add things. • The cost of the alternative energy systems was, in 1984, $6100. • The cost of energy to heat the house would have been $7000. • Payback in ten months.

  37. Unconventional Systems Engineering • Where do you get the ideas for this type of breakthrough? • How do you apply engineering methods to this?

  38. Where to get ideas • One tool: Teleology

  39. How is Breakthrough Possible? • Techniques for finding it: • Multitasking • Muda-Elimination • Teleology

  40. Normally • Prior Art: • “What does a ship rudder look like?”

  41. Teleology • The study of purpose

  42. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder?

  43. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction

  44. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like?

  45. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders

  46. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders • Combined rudder propellers

  47. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders • Combined rudder propellers • Horizontal rudders

  48. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders • Combined rudder propellers • Horizontal rudders • Differential thrust

  49. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders • Combined rudder propellers • Horizontal rudders • Differential thrust • Lateral forces

  50. Teleology • The study of purpose • What is the purpose of a rudder? • Direction • What do other “directors” look like? • Rudders • Combined rudder propellers • Horizontal rudders • Differential thrust • Lateral forces • Ballistics