Probabilistic Plan Recognition. Kathryn Blackmond Laskey Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research George Mason University Dagstuhl Seminar April 2011.
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Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
George Mason University
Dagstuhl Seminar April 2011
The problem of plan recognition is to take as input a sequence of actions performed by an actor and to infer the goal pursued by the actor and also to organize the action sequence in terms of a plan structure
Schmidt, Sridharan and Goodson, 1978
…the problem of plan recognition is largely a problem of inference under conditions of uncertainty.
Charniak and Goldman, 1993
…or just directly specify P(plan|obs)
Bayes, Thomas. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53:370- 418, 1763.
Each of these formalisms can be thought of as a way of representing a set of “possible worlds” and defining a probability measure on an algebra of subsets
Naïve Bayes Model
Pr(R,E,I,W,T,B,S) = Pr(R)Pr(E)Pr(I|R)Pr(W|R)Pr(T|E,I)Pr(B|W)Pr(S|W)
127 probabilities 14 probabilities
C indexes cliques in the graph
xiC is ith variable in clique C
kC is size of clique C
Z is a normalization constant
Key idea: impact of belief in B from evidence "above" B and evidence "below" B can be processed separately
Justification: B d-separates “above” random variables from “below” random variables
= evidence random variableBelief Propagation for Singly Connected BNs
Charniak and Goldman (1993)
Entities, attributes and relations
Built in UnBBayes-MEBN
Screenshot of situation-specific BN in UnBBayes-MEBN
(open-source tool for building & reasoning with PR-OWL ontologies)
(Braz, et al., 2005)
… in theory, at least
Plate model for parameter learning of store-of local distribution
Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
unobservable evolving state + observable indicator
Partially Dynamic Bayesian Network (PDBN)
some variables not time-dependent
Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)
factored representation of state / observable
From van derMerwe et al. (undated)
Particle Filter with Static Nodes
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