Probabilistic Plan Recognition. Kathryn Blackmond Laskey Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research George Mason University Dagstuhl Seminar April 2011.
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
George Mason University
Dagstuhl Seminar April 2011
The problem of plan recognition is to take as input a sequence of actions performed by an actor and to infer the goal pursued by the actor and also to organize the action sequence in terms of a plan structure
Schmidt, Sridharan and Goodson, 1978
…the problem of plan recognition is largely a problem of inference under conditions of uncertainty.
Charniak and Goldman, 1993
…or just directly specify P(plan|obs)
Bayes, Thomas. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53:370- 418, 1763.
Each of these formalisms can be thought of as a way of representing a set of “possible worlds” and defining a probability measure on an algebra of subsets
Naïve Bayes Model
Pr(R,E,I,W,T,B,S) = Pr(R)Pr(E)Pr(I|R)Pr(W|R)Pr(T|E,I)Pr(B|W)Pr(S|W)
127 probabilities 14 probabilities
C indexes cliques in the graph
xiC is ith variable in clique C
kC is size of clique C
Z is a normalization constant
Key idea: impact of belief in B from evidence "above" B and evidence "below" B can be processed separately
Justification: B d-separates “above” random variables from “below” random variables
= evidence random variableBelief Propagation for Singly Connected BNs
Charniak and Goldman (1993)
Entities, attributes and relations
Built in UnBBayes-MEBN
Screenshot of situation-specific BN in UnBBayes-MEBN
(open-source tool for building & reasoning with PR-OWL ontologies)
(Braz, et al., 2005)
… in theory, at least
Plate model for parameter learning of store-of local distribution
Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
unobservable evolving state + observable indicator
Partially Dynamic Bayesian Network (PDBN)
some variables not time-dependent
Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)
factored representation of state / observable
From van derMerwe et al. (undated)
Particle Filter with Static Nodes
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