The 2011 Welsh Referendum Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff University) Roger Scully (Aberystwyth University) Paper presented to Annual Conference of the Political Studies Association London, April 2011. Outline of Paper. Introduction Background to the Referendum The Campaign The Result Turnout
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The 2011 Welsh ReferendumRichard Wyn Jones (Cardiff University)Roger Scully (Aberystwyth University)Paper presented to Annual Conference of the Political Studies AssociationLondon, April 2011
Yes: 517,132 (63.5%)
No: 297,380 (36.5%)
Turnout = 35.6%
Perhaps least important aspect of result is that it vindicated work of the Institute of Welsh Politics!
Key arguments post-1999:
But overshadowed by focus on close 1997 result and legacy of the ‘shadow of 1979’
35.6% hardly good. Low by most historic UK and international standards. But readily explicable:
What we can learn from Wales:
Don’t hold constitutionally frivolous referendums under flawed Referendum legislation in the middle of winter…
Further work to be done on modelling vote:
Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, Wales Says Yes: the 2011 Welsh Referendum (University of Wales Press, 2012)