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Understanding U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Comprehensive guide to accessing, understanding, and differentiating population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. Includes data availability, production methods, and relevance for federal funding allocation.

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Understanding U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

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  1. Accessing Census Bureau Population Estimates for the United States Ryan Burson Population Division U.S. Census Bureau July 16, 2014

  2. Overview • What do we mean by “estimates?” • What estimates do we provide? • Why do we produce them? • How are they produced? • When are they available? • Where can you find them? • How do the estimates differ from American Community Survey estimates?

  3. What Do We Mean by “Estimates?” • The official measures of population and housing units between censuses • Based on the previous decennial census • Produced using administrative records data • Made for prior dates, usually 6 to 12 months earlier • Monthly and annual (July 1)

  4. What Estimates Data do We Provide? • Postcensal (current vintage) • Historical (previous vintages) • Intercensal • Evaluation

  5. Specific Estimates We Provide

  6. Why Do We Produce Estimates? • Federal mandate (U.S.C. Title 13) • Data Uses • Allocation of federal funds • Controls for federal surveys • Current Population Survey (CPS) • American Community Survey (ACS) • Program planning for public and private services

  7. How Do We Produce Population Estimates? • National, state, county population • Cohort-component method P2 = P1 + B - D + NM where : P1 = Population at time 1 P2 = Population at time 2 B = Births D = Deaths NM = Net migration • Subcounty population (cities and towns) • Distributive housing unit method County population is distributed to subcounty parts based on updated estimates of housing units.

  8. When Are Estimates Data Available? Schedule for Vintage 2013 Estimates

  9. Where Can You Find Estimates Data?factfinder2.census.gov

  10. Where Can You Find Estimates Data?www.census.gov/popest

  11. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  12. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  13. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  14. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  15. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  16. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  17. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  18. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  19. Vintage 2013 Estimates

  20. Historical Estimates

  21. Historical Estimates

  22. Historical Estimates

  23. Historical Estimates

  24. Historical Estimates

  25. Intercensal Estimates • A special type of historical estimates we produce once a decade. • Are considered more accurate than previous postcensal estimates for the same years. • Annual estimates are controlled to the beginning and ending decennial census counts for the decade.

  26. Intercensal Estimates

  27. Intercensal Estimates

  28. Intercensal Estimates

  29. Intercensal Estimates

  30. Intercensal Estimates

  31. Evaluation Estimates

  32. Evaluation Estimates

  33. Evaluation Estimates

  34. Evaluation Estimates

  35. How Do the Population Estimates Differ From American Community Survey Estimates? • American Community Survey population estimates are controlled to the official population estimates. • ACS estimates are often not as current, and do not always agree with the official estimates. • ACS estimates are 3-year or 5-year averages for smaller areas. • ACS estimates are available for subjects not included in the official estimates (i.e., other social and economic characteristics).

  36. Same as official estimate Official estimate = 6.1% Official estimate = 33.6

  37. Web Address and Contact Information www.census.gov/popest (301) 763-2385 thomas.r.burson@census.gov

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