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Population Growth and Housing in California. Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California johnson@ppic.org. Outline. Demographic determinants of housing demand Population changes for key groups Regional patterns Public opinion.

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population growth and housing in california

Population Growth and Housing in California

Hans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of California

johnson@ppic.org

outline
Outline
  • Demographic determinants of housing demand
  • Population changes for key groups
  • Regional patterns
  • Public opinion
why the mismatch between population growth and housing
Why the mismatch between population growth and housing?
  • Insufficient supply of new housing
  • Not all population growth is equal with respect to generating housing demand:
      • Children do not form their own households
      • Young adults have low household formation rates
      • Immigrants and Latinos tend to have higher family and household sizes
householder rates vary by age
Householder rates vary by age

Probability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001

50.0%

45.0%

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

18-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

65-74

75+

householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity
Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicity

Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000

outline1
Outline
  • Demographic determinants of housing demand
  • Population changes for key groups
  • Regional patterns
  • Public opinion
absolute population growth will be strong this decade
Absolute population growth will be strong this decade

Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population

outline2
Outline
  • Demographic determinants of housing demand
  • Population changes for key groups
  • Regional patterns
  • Public opinion
median rents in counties with high rent burdens
Median Rents in Counties with High Rent Burdens

Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at

least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent

outline3
Outline
  • Demographic determinants of housing demand
  • Population changes for key groups
  • Regional patterns
  • Public opinion
confidence in state government s ability to plan for future growth is low
Confidence in state government’sability to plan for future growth is low

How much confidence do you have in the state government’s

Ability to plan for the state’s future and growth?

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