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FRANX Code for Fire PRA Analysis PowerPoint Presentation
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FRANX Code for Fire PRA Analysis

FRANX Code for Fire PRA Analysis

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FRANX Code for Fire PRA Analysis

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  1. FRANX Code forFire PRA Analysis PSA200809/08/2008 Jeff Riley Richard Anoba / Anoba Consulting Bijan Najafi / SAIC

  2. Overview • Where does FRANX fit into the process • Some key FRANX features

  3. Some history • FRANC • Started in 1995 (Exelon) • Scenario by scenario screening calculations • XINIT • Started in 2003 (OPPD) • Model morphing • FRANX • 2008 • Combine FRANC and XINIT • Add interfaces to cable and fire propagation

  4. Fire Sources & Freq(scenarios) Cable & EquipmentLocations Fire Progression& Damage Plant Effect(PSA Model) Software Overview

  5. Integration Diagram

  6. Scenario Management • Define fire scenarios • Zone (supports multiple zones) • Relevant fire attributes (Duration, size, …) • Severity factor & non-suppression probability • Fire Impacts • Failed equipment, spurious events

  7. Scenario Details

  8. Mapping Scenarios to Fire Impacts • Induced initiator • Direct impact • Multi-layer mapping from cable database • Support for unknown locations • Support for success and degraded effects if needed

  9. Special fire effects • Spurious operation • Changes to HRA due to fire • New human actions, changed probabilities, blocked recoveries • Other fire-spceific model changes

  10. Deterministic Evaluation • Boolean Failure • Status Panel

  11. CDF Quantification • Full PRA model • Accepts Mutually Exclusive Files, Flags etc. • Recovery rules • CDF calculation from CCDP • Screening / Hiding

  12. Scenario Validation & Refinement • Ones-run cutsets allows diagnosis • Track cutsets through fault tree • Calculate importances

  13. Integration with Risk Monitor • New PRA model is constructed that includes fire initiators and scenario information (human actions, NSP, etc.) • Allows simultaneous calculation of all fire impacts • Model can be used with real-time model in risk monitors such as EOOS

  14. Interface to Cable Data • FRANX mapping database • Import from more sophisticated database • Plant Raceway/Cable Data • Cable/BE Data

  15. Fire Effects • Calculates Ignition Frequency and non-suppression probability • Calculates fire progression and subsequent Equipment Impacts • Import then into FRANX

  16. Future work Fire Propagation Model • Incorporate simple calculations of fire frequencies and damage effects Configuration Risk Management Improvements • Track status of fire barriers, suppression systems, etc. • Ability to change the status of barriers etc.. (not possible now) Other External Events • Incorporate additional flood & siesmic specific features

  17. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity