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Scientific Method

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  1. Scientific Method Statistics and Quantitative Analysis

  2. The world was covered by a flood. The story of the great flood is found in the Bible .

  3. The world was covered by a flood. Stories of a great flood is common in many cultures as seen not only in the Bible, but also in Mesopotamian flood stories, as well as in Greek stories, and in the lore of the K'iche' and Maya in Central America, and the Ojibwa tribe and Pacific peoples of North America, and the Muisca and Cañari people in South America.

  4. And once there was a great flood!

  5. But how old are the shell fossils on the top of mountains?

  6. The Scientific Method:

  7. The Scientific Method: Is a newway of thinking. “Straight form the horse’s mouth.”

  8. The Scientific Method: Is a new way of thinking. It may not be the best way, but it is very pragmatic and produces immense amounts of information.

  9. Deduction From the general to the specific. A "top-down" approach. • Create a theory. • Create specific hypotheses that can be tested. • Collect observations to address the hypotheses. • Confirm with data

  10. Deduction From the general to the specific. A "top-down" approach. Note: That deduction starts with an IDEA, which leads to a logical test, that then demands evidence from the world. Note also: How much faith you must put in your mind’s ability to reflect “reality.”

  11. Induction From the specific to the general. A “bottom-up" approach. 1. Specific observations and measures. 2. Identify patterns and regularities. 3. Formulate some tentative hypotheses that we can be explored. 4. Developing some general conclusions or theories.

  12. Induction From the specific to the general. A “bottom-up" approach. Note: That induction starts with an evidence from the world, which leads to a logical test, that then must meet the demands of logic.

  13. According to psychologists, we do this almost automatically, but we usually do it wrong.

  14. Fundamental Attribution Error

  15. Both Student 1 and Student 2 got a grade on the same test. Student 1 got an A. Student 2 got a C. Student 1 says, “I got an A.” Student 2 says, “The teacher gave me a C.” Fundamental Attribution Error

  16. The ideas that create the scientific method came from the medieval and Renaissance beginnings… • Natural phenomena should be explained in terms of causes.

  17. The ideas that create the scientific method came from the medieval and Renaissance beginnings… • Natural phenomena should be explained in terms of causes. • Natural phenomena can be explained only as the effects of natural causes only. Adelard of Bath 1080 - 1152

  18. Adelard of Bath, who was a very religious man, stated in 1116 AD. “I am not slighting God’s role, for whatever exists is from him and through him. Nevertheless, that dependence is not to be taken in blanket fashion without justification.”

  19. The ideas that create the scientific method came from the medieval and Renaissance beginnings… • Natural phenomena should be explained in terms of causes. • Natural phenomena can be explained only as the effects of natural causes only. 3. Knowledge must be based on direct experience or repeatable experiments, not authority.

  20. The ideas that create the scientific method came from the medieval and Renaissance beginnings… • Natural phenomena should be explained in terms of causes. • Natural phenomena can be explained only as the effects of natural causes only. 3. Knowledge must be based on direct experience or repeatable experiments, not authority. 4. Mathematics is the proper “language” to describe nature.

  21. Mathematics has something to do with reality! Pythagoras 570 BC – 495 BC

  22. A blackbody is defined as an object that absorbs incoming radiation and emits energy at full efficiency for all wavelengths.. The following equation is used to calculate the magnitude of this wavelength dependent radiation.

  23. Back to the problem of knowing…. Since all experience of the world outside our brains is perceptual… How can we know what is true?

  24. Bacon maintained that the mind was the problem with knowing because we misperceive reality… Therefore, we must use a “mechanical” method to obtain empirical data… Strictly controlled by induction. Francis Bacon 1561 - 1626

  25. Descartes maintained that the mind was the solution with knowing because the mind reflected reality… Therefore, we must use mathematics as the key to knowledge… Strictly controlled by deduction. Rene Descartes 1596 - 1650

  26. There is a fundamental problem with using experiments to validate knowledge. “Affirming the Consequence” Affirming the consequent is a formal fallacycommitted by reasoning in the form: 1. If P, then Q. 2. Q. 3. Therefore, P. An argument of this form is invalid, i.e., the conclusion can be false even when statements 1 and 2 are true. Since P was never asserted as the only sufficient condition for Q, other factors could account for Q (while P was false). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

  27. The planet Neptune was discovered by applying Newton’s theory of gravitation mathematically… Does this mean then that Newton’s concept of space and force are true? Isaac Newton 1643 - 1721

  28. Scientific Method Refers to techniques for investigating phenomenaand the gaining of new knowledge, as well as correcting and integrating previous knowledge, based on observable, empirical, measurable evidence, and subject to laws of reasoning.

  29. Basic Characteristics:

  30. Basic Characteristics: • Descriptive a. Public b. Replicable c. Reliable d. Valid

  31. Basic Characteristics: • Descriptive • Predictive a. Past – Present – Future b. Not interested in “one-shot” ideas

  32. Basic Characteristics: • Descriptive • Prediction • Control

  33. Basic Characteristics: • Descriptive • Prediction • Control • Understanding a. Identification b. Relationships c. Cause-effect

  34. Assumptions:

  35. Assumptions: • Empiricism a. “Look and see”

  36. Assumptions: • Empiricism a. “Look and see” b. All hypotheses and theories are in principle subject to disproof. Comment of professor: “People may begin to disbelieve scientists.”

  37. Deduction…. deduce Induction

  38. Problem with induction… “The problem, in basic terms, can be understood by example: given that the sun has risen every day for as long as anyone can remember, what is the rational proof that it will rise tomorrow?” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper

  39. Popper, then, repudiated induction, and rejected the view that it is the characteristic method of scientific investigation and inference, and substituted falsifiability in its place. Every genuine scientific theory then, in Popper's view, is prohibitive, in the sense that it forbids, by implication, particular events or occurrences. As such it can be tested and falsified, but never logically verified. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/popper/#CriEva

  40. Assumptions: • Empiricism • Determinism a. There is a cause for any given effect.

  41. B. F. Skinner argued that there was no such thing as free will….. Every person does what his or her environment demands. Remember: There has to be a cause for every effect!

  42. B. F. Skinner argued that there was no such thing as free will….. Every person does what his or her environment demands.

  43. An iron ball…

  44. An iron ball… A rat ball…

  45. An iron ball… A rat ball… A live rat…