Climate Trends in the Philippines ² Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco
PAGASA-DOST PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and well-being & contribute to national development Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations.
PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment 5 Regional Centers • 58 Synoptic stations • 23 Agromet stations • 80 Climat/Rain stations • AWS 10M wind mast • 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI) • ARG • 381 total • 6 Upper air stations • 10 Doppler radars • (2 under construction) • 2 Marine buoys • 5 Telemeteredmajor river basins • 3 Satellite receivers NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao) NCR (Quezon City) SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi) VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu) MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)
Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges
Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006
Philippines mean temperature Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values An increase of 0.65°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
Maximum & Minimum Temperature An increase of 0.36°C from 1951-2010 (60 years) Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature An increase of 1.0°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008) In most parts of the country, increases in the frequency of hot days and warm nights are Statically Significant Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days). Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile(Warm nights)
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008) In most parts of the country, Significant decreases in the frequency of Cool days and Cold nights Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile Cool Days Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentileCold nights
Classification of Tropical Cyclones • Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to63 kph; • Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from64 to 118kph; • Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118kph.
Tropical Cyclone Frequencyusing 1°x1° (1948-2010) Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010) s. Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set). s. Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical cyclones EVERY YEAR
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010 *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010 *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above Neutral year El Niño year La Niña year
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period: 1948-2010
Tropical cyclone statistics in PH Increasing cost of Damage *The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.
Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm Flooding in Metro Manila: Tropical Storm Ketsana“ONDOY” Sept. 24 - 27, 2009
Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008) • In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing and becoming more frequent
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage Severe flood damage REDcolored years areEL NINOyears, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution El Niño La Niña Neutral Wetter in the western part Wetter in the eastern part
Manila An increase of2.21 °Cfrom 1901-2010 (110 years)
Thank You! Tracking the sky…helping the country