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Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC

Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC. Hua-Ning Wang, Han He & Yan Yan Presented by Yan Yan Oct, 11 th , 2011. Outline . Introduction of the Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity The definition of “Medium-term”—How long? The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What?

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Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC

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  1. Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity in RWCC Hua-Ning Wang, Han He & Yan Yan Presented by Yan Yan Oct, 11th, 2011

  2. Outline • Introduction of the Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity • The definition of “Medium-term”—How long? • The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What? • The way of “Medium-term Forecast”– How to • The evaluation of “Medium-term Forecast” • Look forward…

  3. Introduction of the Medium-term Forecast of Solar Activity • History: monthly mean sunspot number of the coming month; possible proton event; possible influence on shortwave communication. Mainly for related units. • Today: From Sep, 1st 2010 to the present, more than 1 year

  4. The definition of “Medium-term”—How long? • Weekly • Bi-weekly • Monthly • Quarterly

  5. The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What?(I) • Smoothed monthly sunspot number of the upcoming week

  6. The content of “Medium-term Forecast”—What?(II) • Solar X-ray flare activity level • 0(very low)：no flare • 1(low)：Cclass flares • 2(moderate)：1-4M1-M4 class flares • 3(high)：>=5M1-M4 class flares，or 1-4M5-M9 class flares • 4(very high)：>=5M5-M9 class flares，or X class flares

  7. The way of “Medium-term Forecast”– How to (I)Based on two emeritus professors: • Wang, J.L., Han, Y.B. Forecasts of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers and non-smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for solar cycle 23. Astrophysics Reports: Publ. Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Supplement Series, No.1, 76-80, 1997. • Wang, J.L., Gong, J.C, Liu, S.Q., Le, G.M., Han, Y.B., Sun, J.L. Verification of a similar cycle prediction for the ascending and peak phases of solar cycle 23. Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 396-398, 2002. • Zhang, G.Q., Wang, H.N. Prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 23. Sol. Phys. 188, 397-400, 1999. and an associate professor: • Du, Z.L. A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24. Astron. & Astrophys. 457, 309-312, 2006a. • Du, Z.L. Relationship between solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length. Astron. J. 132, 1485-1489, 2006b. (II)Based on forecasters’ experience, recently. Mainly originated from the stereo data and helioseismology.

  8. The evaluation of “Medium-term Forecast” • We have done 56 “Medium-term Forecast”. • We forecasted correctly at 36 times, while wrongly at 20 times including over-estimating at 9 times and under-estimating at 11 times. • So we can conclude that our correct rate is right/total is 36/56=64.3%

  9. Look forward… • SEP • CME • EUV • Medium-term activity level • Something is ongoing….

  10. Thank you for your patience.

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