Hurricane Multi-Decadal Variability and Lack of Global Warming Influence

1. Hurricane Multi-Decadal Variability and Lack of Global Warming Influence by William M. Gray Professor Emeritus

2. 1979-1994 (16 years) 25 Major Hurricanes CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS 1995-2010 (16 years) 61 Major Hurricanes CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS

3. 21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996) FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 25-30 YEARS William M. Gray (written in 1996) We expect that these changing THC (or MOC) patterns will lead to enhanced intense (or major) hurricane activity in coming years and to a small global surface temperature cooling.  It is likely that the mean global surface temperature change in the next 20-30 years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences and be one of weak cooling, not warming.

4. GLOBE COOLING ATLANTIC THC STRONG 80 Major Hurricanes GLOBE WARMING ATLANTIC THC WEAK 38 Major Hurricanes

5. 37 26 13 10 1900-25 1926-69 1970-94 1995-10 Annual Number of 6 Hour Periods for Cat. 3-4-5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic

6. GLOBE N. HEMISPHERE Ryan Maue (FSU)

7. THC (or AMO) STRONG THC (or AMO) WEAK

8. SALINITY SURFACE SALINITY 500 METERS

10. SALINITY MIXING

12. SSTA + SSTA - + – – SLPA – + SLPA + gyre - gyre + + – STRONG THC WEAK THC

13. NORTH ATLANTIC Arctic Current RAIN Needed for Sinking 35.0 Labrador Current River Sub-Tropical gyre 36.0-36.5 E – P > 0 EQ. 34.5

14. SALINITY (S) OCEAN DENSITY – (OCEAN TEMP) NEEDED FOR NADWF SALT + TEMP NET OCEAN DENSITY EQ 30oN 60oN Pole

15. 20 15 10 5 0 34.5 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 STRENGTH OF ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION 27.0 NO SINKING DENSITY STRONG 27.9 NEEDED FOR NADWF TEMPERATURE 28.5 WEAK 3oC SALINITY

17. 37 SALINITY 35 STRONG WEAK NEUTRAL E – P > 0 EQ. 50oN 60oN 70oN

19. FAST SLOW FAST SLOW Thermohaline Circulation Rate of Salt Buildup from (E-P) - River = 0 Salt Anomaly (S1) (S1) (S1) YEARS 30 60 90 120

20. SSTA & Salinity SLPA

22. ATLANTIC OCEAN THC (or AMO) CHANGES ∆ SST ∆ Vertical Shear ∆ Trades ∆ SLP WEAK WEAK ∆ Moisture Change in hurricane frequency & intensity

23. b – more TCs a – less TCs

24. MEDIA EXPLOSIONS Webster, et al. (Science) IPCC-IV Report Emanuel (Nature) Gore movie & book 2006 CHARLEY FRANCES IVAN JEANNE DENNIS KATRINA RITA WILMA U.S. LANDFALL WRITE PAPERS Aug. Sept. July Aug. Sept. Oct. 2004 2005 2007

25. 2000-2010 (9 of 11 yrs) (not including 2004-2005)Major Hurricanes (No Landfalls) % US Landfall to Atlantic Basin Total 0 / 28 = 0% 0 Landfalls per year

26. EAST COAST ONLY 1941-1969 and 2004-2005 (31 yrs) Major Hurricanes (24 Landfalls) % US Landfall to Atlantic Basin Total 24 / 97 = 25% 0.77 Landfalls per year

27. EAST COAST ONLY 1970-2010 (not including 2004-2005)(39 of 41 yrs) Major Hurricanes (5 Landfalls) % US Landfall to Atlantic Basin Total 5 / 86 = 6% 0.13 Landfalls per year

28. MAIN DRIVER OF DECADAL TO CENTURY SCALE CLIMATE CHANGES ∆ SALT

29. H H 3 1 2 X X Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

30. THC SAS SAS

31. THC (or AMO) STRONG THC (or AMO) WEAK

32. MOC Strong MORE UPWELLING COOLING More Rain MOC Weak LESS UPWELLING COOLING Less Rain

33. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ MOC 10 25 Sv 15 a AVG. neutral AABW NADW ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 15 35 Sv 20 b STRONG cooling AABW NADW ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 5 15 Sv 10 c WEAK warming AABW NADW SP NP

34. STRONGER ZONAL WINDS (U) ANTARCTICA EKMAN WIND WEAK WIND ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ICE EKMAN SEA AABW

35. Solar +25 MEAN ~~~~~~~~~~ MOC 10 -25 15 Mixed Layer Thermocline MOC = -25 Steady State ∆E = 0 SP NP Solar +25 THC STRONG ~~~~~~~~~~ 15 -35 20 Mixed Layer COOLING + More Rain more upwelling MOC = -35 ∆E = - 10 SP NP Solar +25 THC WEAK ~~~~~~~~~~ 5 - 15 10 Mixed Layer WARMING - Less Rain less upwelling MOC = -15 ∆E = + 10 SP NP

36. FCST.

37. Multi-Century Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century ? TEMP TEMP Multi-century + decadal mean THC 0 neg. ? Multi-Century 1880 1910 1940 1975 1998 2030

38. Multi-Century THC+ Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century THC+ THC+ ? TEMP TEMP Multi-century + decadal THC- mean THC- THC 0 neg. ? Multi-Century 1880 1910 1940 1975 1998 2030

39. Globe Cooler Globe Warmer 19TH Century 20TH Century

40. A Possible 20th-Century Slowdown of Southern Ocean Deep Water Formation (Wallace S. Broecker, 1 Stewart Sutherland, 1 Tsung-Hung Peng 2) Chlorofluorocarbon-11 inventories for the deep Southern Ocean appear to confirm physical oceanographic and geochemical studies in the Southern Ocean, which suggest that no more than 5 Sv of ventilated deep water is currently being produced... …A major reduction in Southern Ocean deep water production during the 20th century (from high rates during the Little Ice Age) is occurring. Science 5 November 1999:Vol. 286. no. 5442, pp. 1132 - 1135

41. Less Salt More Salt E. Hendy, et al. (Science, February 22, 2002)

42. ω rd SINKING EQ. ru UPWELLING rd ∆r (u-d)

43. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 ROT = 1 LOD ? LOD LOD ROT ROT

44. US Landfalling Major Hurricanes 0.89 year CO2 370ppm 0.49 year 310 ppm 40 Landfalls 22 Landfalls Background 280 ppm 1921-1965 45 Years 1966-2010 45 Years 2050

45. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach

46. The 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference

47. Outline • Introduction • 2010 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Forecast Verification • 2011 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Forecast • Landfall Probabilities • New Forecast Products

48. “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” HOWEVER… “You can see a lot by looking” Yogi Berra

50. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE THERMAL INERTIA OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).